Major Hurricane Irma

[Papa Joe]

Just now, Crazy4Wx said:

Well, won't the surge still be devastating for the keys regardless of the eye coming on shore in northern Cuba?

 

Surge for the Keys is somewhat self-limiting as the surge will hit the reef first. In the 1935 storm, they had 40-50' waves at the reef, and what did make it to land was enhanced because a lot of the cuts and creeks were plugged up by railroad. That said, a 20' storm surge will wipe most anything off the keys. 

 

Even Donna only had about a 6' surge when it passed over Marathon (per the water marks in house I was living in). 

 

1 minute ago, thess said:

It's a visitor evac that starts tomorrow.

I assume they are staging it (visitors, then residents) to ease the bottlenecks on those tiny little roads. 

(Unless there have been significant upgrades in the highways there--haven't been in at least ten years.)

Plus, Keys residents can be remarkably stubborn about evacs. Source: family members in Marathon and Key West who rode out Wilma. 

I lived in Marathon in the late 1960s. People will stay. (but per the MCSO, the evacuation is for everyone and starts tomorrow morning at 7.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

The surge even without a direct hit is going to be tremendous with all that water flowing east on the NE Side or IRMA

I guess the thing is Georges was destroyed by Hispaniola of east Cuba too so the remnant surge was probably mostly gone.  I would think as you say above this one might have a greater leftover rise in water from when it was a Cat 4 or 5 just a day earlier 

[gravitylover]

And then after you come off A1A Rt 1 going through the Homestead area is a 20+ mile long series of traffic lights and is a terminal clustrf*ck without people panicking. There's nothing easy about getting people out of that area.

 

[jburns]

All tolls suspended on Florida highways starting at 5:00 pm.

[RU4Real]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You wonder why they couldnt have waited another day to evacuate the Keys.  If this ends to slamming into Cuba as long as the Euro shows hypothetically it probably comes out as a Cat 1 and you have another dangerous what if one really does happen one day and people don't evacuate 

I think this decision may be largely because the Cuba / No Cuba scenario is somewhat academic for the Keys. As the Gulf Stream pumps through the Florida Strait, it will be met with contrary, long-fetch winds for a couple of days prior to the arrival of the storm. The seas around that area are going to be massive, and steep. There's a very good chance of significant impact from that, alone.

[NJwx85]

Looks like a lot of EPS members are well East

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Agree. Look at what happened to Gilbert, Dean or Janet after crossing the flat Yucatan peninsula.

Yucatan is part of the continent though, Cuba is a thin island.  Sure it has tall mountains in some areas but you have to hit it just "right" (or "wrong") to get that effect- it's like threading a needle.  Sure it could happen and weaken the storm considerably, but I wouldn't count on it taking that track unless I was within 3 days of the event.

[MattPetrulli]

Still sticking with a Matthew type track. Up the east coast and into the carolinas. 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Looks like a lot of EPS members are well East

As someone said a few posts back.  That developing tropical off Mexico in the W Gulf wreaked havoc on that run by messing with the setup somewhat to the east.  Too many features here which is making this forecast unusually hard 

[Diego]

17 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Anyone have a link to a frontline weather station that will be the first to feel the fury of Irma? and a radar station?

Thanks

Here's a link to the Pureto Rico Traffic Cams. There's a active cam at the moment on the NE side of the island, and you can see clouds from an outer bank moving in. Many more in the San Juan area.

http://its.dtop.gov.pr/(X(1)S(gs1c44hygyqrjopsccxagpse))/en/Default.aspx

[Hazey]

I would agree with evacuations now while there is time to do it in an orderly fashion. Some of the deaths in other evacuations is due to being done late and people rushing/panicking. What's the worst that can happen? You're inconvenienced for a bit. Small price to pay considering.

[Hazey]

Perhaps someone could start an obs thread with all those links to the various weather stations and radar sites. I think it's getting close enough in time to do so.

[Chinook]

Guess what? We got Irma on radar from some Caribbean Islands

http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/kidbuuComposite_displayer.php?Product=Reflectivity&Sector=EC_Bar&Composite=Sabre&PlanetOfTheApes=1503012134

[bdgwx]

The spread in the EPS members at hour 120 is pretty big. The mean isn't very cohesive, but verbatim I guess I'd put LF at Miami close to hour 132. The EPS and GEFS suggest D5 forecast confidence is below average right now.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Perhaps someone could start an obs thread with all those links to the various weather stations and radar sites. I think it's getting close enough in time to do so.

Didn't catch it but anyone have any St. Marteen cams?  

[yoda]

1 minute ago, bdgwx said:

The spread in the EPS members at hour 120 is pretty big. The mean isn't very cohesive, but verbatim I guess I'd put LF at Miami close to hour 132. The EPS and GEFS suggest D5 forecast confidence is below average right now.

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Very interesting. 00z vs 12z EPS at 120. Rolled 00z forward 12 hours to account for time. 

 

[ncskywarn]

Here is current 12Z versus 18Z. 18Z has shifted West again,

 

[yoda]

18z tracks for Sept 5th

[csnavywx]

2 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

The spread in the EPS members at hour 120 is pretty big. The mean isn't very cohesive, but verbatim I guess I'd put LF at Miami close to hour 132. The EPS and GEFS suggest D5 forecast confidence is below average right now.

It's an abnormally large spread and the spread is pretty even, indicating how sensitive the track will be to small changes.

[Crazy4Wx]

1 minute ago, ncskywarn said:

Here is current 12Z versus 18Z. 18Z has shifted West again,

 

The shift west looks minimal. The northern turn is generally in the same spot per 12 and 18z. 

[SnowGoose69]

NHC's track is definitely on the western envelope of most of those hurricane models and the Euro ensembles 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

It's an abnormally large spread and the spread is pretty even, indicating how sensitive the track will be to small changes.

Very hard to detect any differences in the EPS 500 mb mean and OP through 120.  The trough and ridge are nearly identical.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

NHC's track is definitely on the western envelope of most of those hurricane models and the Euro ensembles 

Perhaps a slight shift east in the 5pm cone?

[kvegas-wx]

Wow,  wouldn't want to be in Murphy NC if the 18z holds true.  All points converge there.  Flooding across the NC mts will be brutal if Irma slows down.  Any thoughts on how quickly this moves north?  4-6", ok.  10-15" = big problems.

[No snow for you]

Here is a link to Anguilla web cams. Doubt they last long as power will go out pretty quickly based on the track. 

 

http://www.anguilla-beaches.com/anguilla-beaches-webcam.html

 

 

[Amped]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very hard to detect any differences in the EPS 500 mb mean and OP through 120.  The trough and ridge are nearly identical.

The lack of crossing tracks suggest differences have a lot to do with the initial position and short term motion. 

[csnavywx]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very hard to detect any differences in the EPS 500 mb mean and OP through 120.  The trough and ridge are nearly identical.

How much latitude Irma gains over the next 24-48 hours is going to be crucial. Even 10-20 miles may have a big difference later down the road.

[Ginx snewx]

https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/905143076213096448

[SACRUS]

 

 

[lakeeffectkid383]

I really think the last couple frames of Irma is the best looking hurricane I've ever seen in my lifetime (I was born in the early 90's).