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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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I will however say that the trend of the GFS to hang the trough back longer over the east coast needs to be watched very closely. I'd be hedging against a track west of the 12z GFS until we see that trend stop.

That trough/ULL is make or break on the forecast. I still set my sights up the EC
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Is there any reason to doubt the SFMR readings the NHC used as the basis for the 180mph intensity? When I checked satellite this morning I was expecting 160-170mph based on the size of the eye and the warmer cloud tops than last night (also warmer compared to the strongest Cat5s on IR). So I was surprised to see the NHC had set the intensity to 180mph. The central pressure also seems a little high for a strong Cat5. 

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3 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

Is there any reason to doubt the SFMR readings the NHC used as the basis for the 180mph intensity? When I checked satellite this morning I was expecting 160-170mph based on the size of the eye and the warmer cloud tops than last night (also warmer compared to the strongest Cat5s on IR). So I was surprised to see the NHC had set the intensity to 180mph. The central pressure also seems a little high for a strong Cat5. 

Just got 160kt SFMR, so I would believe it.

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2 minutes ago, jacindc said:

So, everyone is just tossing the 0Z Euro that went up the *west* coast of Fla.?

 

Nobody should be dismissing anything at this point, except maybe landfall in Texas or Bermuda.

Really can't stress enough to our guests and newer members that a wide range of options is still on the table.  Models will move around with each run.   

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Nobody should be dismissing anything at this point, except maybe landfall in Texas or Bermuda.

Really can't stress enough to our guests and newer members that a wide range of options is still on the table.  Models will move around with each run.   

Agreed. I just brought it up because no one in all of the 12z "it's going east" discussions has mentioned the Euro.

 

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Nobody should be dismissing anything at this point, except maybe landfall in Texas or Bermuda.

Really can't stress enough to our guests and newer members that a wide range of options is still on the table.  Models will move around with each run.   

On top of that, with the angle it is approaching at, a 100-200 mile deviation can mean the diffeeence between an outer banks landfall and Panama City.

 

I feel for emergency management folks in Florida. How the heck do you decide who to evacuate when a 100 mile adjustment can mean the difference between a Miami/Tampa landfall? What do you do with folks in the keys? Where do you send them? Just a total nightmare scenario.

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9 minutes ago, Morris said:

163230 1704N 05839W 6965 02754 9623 +099 +099 134145 150 136 075 00
163300 1703N 05840W 6973 02711 9573 +106 +106 138145 151 147 066 00
163330 1702N 05841W 6961 02668 9504 +115 +115 139132 141 160 046 00
163400 1701N 05842W 6962 02616 //// +109 //// 137121 133 160 024 05

How is this to be read? I'm guessing its Time of measurement, lat, long, but what are the other measurements?

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Just now, jojo762 said:

Oddly there was an extrapolated pressure of 922.6mb with 35kt winds... and one that was 923.6mb with 15kt winds. Has to be erroneous, that or the core is doing some funky things.

Disagree - margin of error around extrap is entirely consistent with observations.

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25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Little taste for those that didn't click.  Much greater resolution available at the link above.

irma6.gif

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2 minutes ago, Bruinsyear said:

The outflow has been very impressive all day. Continues to improve and encompass much of the circulation. Unless this fades it only looks to strengthen, which is impressive give the current 180 mph winds. It'll probably get a bump next advisory. What a beauty!

It's approaching it's hypothesized MPI for the current SST, although the water continues to warm as it moves west, but this should provide at least a nubulous upper bound for intensity.

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