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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Apparently the HMON performed like trash during Harvey: "the HMON model's average error at four days was a staggering 630 nautical miles, compared to about 170 nautical miles for the European model. "

It's the same thing with Irma too. HMON has an average error of about 600 miles and humans are at 200 miles. The Euro is annihilating humans right now with an average error of 100 miles at D5 forecasts.

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2 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

Hurricane Allen had the strongest winds in the Atlantic at 190MPH sustained, Hurricane Wilma had the lowest pressure in the Atlantic at 882mb, Hurricane Patricia had the strongest non-tornadic sustained winds on the planet at 215MPH sustained with a pinhole eye, and finally Typhoon Tip had the lowest projected non-tornadic pressure pegged at 870mb... Correct me if I'm wrong.

Allen was 190 after crossing the Yucatan caused it to weaken but thankfully it weakened before hitting south Texas

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6 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

Hurricane Allen had the strongest winds in the Atlantic at 190MPH sustained, Hurricane Wilma had the lowest pressure in the Atlantic at 882mb, Hurricane Patricia had the strongest non-tornadic sustained winds on the planet at 215MPH sustained with a pinhole eye, and finally Typhoon Tip had the lowest projected non-tornadic pressure pegged at 870mb... Correct me if I'm wrong.

you mean strongest in the gulf of mexico?

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Irma is has a relatively large and stable eye at this time so it should be less susceptible to erc. 

Yep.  Like almost all long-track CV storms that go through multiple ERCs and track under the dry subtropical atlantic ridge, it has some annular characteristics; less banding, bigger eye.  Generally a more stable flavor of storm.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Yeah, while not completely annular, it's certainly displaying some of those characteristics. 

Can we just call a duck a duck? No clue why everyone is so timid of the "A-word." It is annular right now imo, especially when looking at IR.

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5 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Can we just call a duck a duck? No clue why everyone is so timid of the "A-word." It is annular right now imo, especially when looking at IR.

I mean, compare to Luis and Isabel.  Those are what true annular hurricanes look like (and there are examples in the E. Pac as well - Dora's the best one) It's not really all the way there b/c the CDO is thick enough relative to the eye that it likely hides some banding features.  But compared to your standard atlantic basin TC, it's clearly using a high percentage of its potential intensity and the eyewall is stable.  This isn't a Wilma.

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To get more into the annular question, below is an image from one of the most important papers on the topic.  The best example of the marginal case has always been Edouard, which IIRC never quite looked annular but has been characterized as such based on its intensity relative to TCHP and stability when it looked like the below.  The other storms all have a higher eye size / CDO ratio.

Annular.jpg

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41 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Not sure if i have ever seen any hurricane be forecasted to stay that long at cat 5 strength by one of them..much less 4....that's incredible. 

Yeah almost always they fall off the chart back down to Cat 4 immediately. That is a signal right there just how unprecedented this storm is going to be.

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