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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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9 minutes ago, hooralph said:

 

 

Will be very interesting to see if the Rock survives this. Also hard to see how the airport doesn't wind up under feet and feet of sand. If the harbor takes a lot of damage and the airport is inundated, it could be hard to get on or off the island for a while.

 

 

st jean beach.jpg

This is moot. Seriously. This will all be wiped out in the storm surge.

 

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1 minute ago, rockchalk83 said:

They don't issue special advisories based off pressure. 

The 180MPH reading wasn't from the strongest part of the storm LOL

 

The aircraft have not
sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were
measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force
plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily.
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Just now, NJwx85 said:

The 180MPH reading wasn't from the strongest part of the storm LOL

 


The aircraft have not
sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were
measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force
plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily.

I read the same thing you did, however, there's not another category for this storm to go up to (which triggers the special advisory,) so it will likely be updated with the intermediate advisory. 

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My uncle who has a house in Key West said the cop that lives next told him at the 2 pm advisory if it is stronger they are being told the state will issue a full and complete mandatory evacuation of all the FL keys effective by noon tomorrow.    

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4 minutes ago, gakmsg said:

Very concerned about St Kitts - Still slightly south east of them at this hour and the hoped for northern turn may now bring Irma right over them.

This may sound like hyperbole, but I don't know how anyone who is in the direct path that has less than 30' ASL is comfortable riding this out...

7ft - 11 ft surge. Then put massive breakers on top of that.

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Wind speed of Hurricane #Irma is very high for central pressure of 929 mb & cloud tops have warmed in past 6-12 hours ...

Expecting eyewall cycles to modulate intensity & should see bursts of "pink" or very-cold cloud tops & pressure should fall = stronger yet

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10 minutes ago, NCWX said:

My uncle who has a house in Key West said the cop that lives next told him at the 2 pm advisory if it is stronger they are being told the state will issue a full and complete mandatory evacuation of all the FL keys effective by noon tomorrow.    

Any inconvenience such an evacuation might cause would be trivial compared to the danger of a Category 5 hurricane. Should Irma retain or increase its strength and should the guidance continue to show a potentially devastating passage over the Florida Keys, such an evacuation would make good sense.

Here's a link to the Florida Historical Society's page on the 1935 Labor Day hurricane: https://myfloridahistory.org/frontiers/article/84

 

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Just now, Lookout said:

Not sure if i have ever seen any hurricane be forecasted to stay that long at cat 5 strength by one of them..much less 4....that's incredible.

That's what I was thinking.

It looks like Allen (1980) stayed a category 5 for 72 hours.

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I'm sorry if this has been posted before or if this is the wrong place, but here is a really good article from Houston area meteorologist Eric Berger about hurricane modeling. It was published this AM.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/at-times-during-harvey-the-european-model-outperformed-humans/

Apparently the HMON performed like trash during Harvey: "the HMON model's average error at four days was a staggering 630 nautical miles, compared to about 170 nautical miles for the European model. "

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7 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

What's the strongest hurricane ever recorded in terms of wind speed and mb? Could this top it?  TIA.

Hurricane Allen had the strongest winds in the Atlantic at 190MPH sustained, Hurricane Wilma had the lowest pressure in the Atlantic at 882mb, Hurricane Patricia had the strongest non-tornadic sustained winds on the planet at 215MPH sustained with a pinhole eye, and finally Typhoon Tip had the lowest projected non-tornadic pressure pegged at 870mb... Correct me if I'm wrong.

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