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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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4 minutes ago, Wow said:

12z hurr models more east. Several getting back over water before hitting SC...

DPjzhMh.png

Most of those are heavily weighted towards the OP GFS correct?  I know the 06Z GFS OP came way east from the 00Z, but if you look at the GFES members the spread increased dramatically!  I wonder if NHC will bite on 06Z or wait for more trends to move the track slightly NE.  So many things still on the table.

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8 minutes ago, weatherboy80 said:

Most of those are heavily weighted towards the OP GFS correct?  I know the 06Z GFS OP came way east from the 00Z, but if you look at the GFES members the spread increased dramatically!  I wonder if NHC will bite on 06Z or wait for more trends to move the track slightly NE.  So many things still on the table.

Only the red line is the GFS.

The NHC tries to stick pretty close to TVCN which is a consensus or blend of models.

And yes, ensemble member spreads have increased a lot. That was expected and is an indication that D5 forecast confidence is probably below average right now.

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I'm very concerned that the models are going to "jump" east by a large amount and someone on the east coast is going to get caught unaware.

I remember reading something a few pages back about the model initializations giving a lot of weight to the current direction and speed of the storm when doing the plots. 

Is it possible that the anomalous SSW motion we saw earlier was somehow being magnified by the models and now that it looks to be heading NNW that a jump could occur?

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA HEADING
TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 58.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, including the
Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the
Ragged Islands.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the north coast of Haiti from
the border of the Dominican Republic westward to Le Mole St.
Nicholas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from south of Le
Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince.
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22 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That would be great. Still many ways south florida is spared a direct hit. Hopefully one of them happens. 

I can only think of two ways that South Florida avoids a direct hit, one of them involves plowing into Cuba, and even then it would have time to recover. The second option is that it passes just far enough East, however impacts would still be very high there.

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29 minutes ago, jgf said:

 

The School in L'Orient.., would be pretty low (pun intended..) on my list of places to shelter from a hurricane passing just north of the island...

i can't really think off hand of any large public buildings that are at high elevation, but many houses/villas are

i guess i would probably go to this party and hope for the best!

edit - for those who don't know.., even though it says "Guadeloupe".., it is in Gustavia, St. barth, so just a few miles south of the track- St barth is in the french department of guadeloupe, which includes all the french islands in the caribbean

 

 

FullSizeRender 4.jpg

 

 

Will be very interesting to see if the Rock survives this. Also hard to see how the airport doesn't wind up under feet and feet of sand. If the harbor takes a lot of damage and the airport is inundated, it could be hard to get on or off the island for a while.

 

 

st jean beach.jpg

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Max winds up to 180MPH.

Irma is an extremely impressive hurricane in both infrared and
visible satellite images.  Experimental GOES-16 one-minute visible
satellite pictures show a distinct 25-30 n mi wide eye with several
mesovortices rotating within with eye.  The aircraft have not
sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were
measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force
plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily.  A peak
SFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt.
Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records.
Irma is expected to remain within low vertical wind shear, a moist
mid-level atmosphere, and high upper-ocean heat content as it moves
west-northwestward during the next several days. These conditions
should allow the hurricane to remain very intense throughout much
of the forecast period, however, fluctuations in intensity are
likely to occur as eyewall replacement cycles take place.  The NHC
intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance and assumes
little overall interaction of Irma with the islands of the Greater
Antilles.
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20 minutes ago, weatherboy80 said:

Most of those are heavily weighted towards the OP GFS correct?  I know the 06Z GFS OP came way east from the 00Z, but if you look at the GFES members the spread increased dramatically!  I wonder if NHC will bite on 06Z or wait for more trends to move the track slightly NE.  So many things still on the table.

Probably not. 

From my understanding 6z doesn't have the upper air included and is a little less reliable in some people'e opinion. 

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