bluewave Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Was that in Long Beach? Was Gloria the one that reached Cat 5 at three different times in the Atlantic? I can see from the map that one of those hurricanes did that. I had to evacuate Long Beach a little further NE inland along the South Shore closer to where the eye crossed the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Well I'm not sure about the terrain of Anguilla however a lot of the homes in the Southeastern Caribbean are built on higher elevations precisely for this reason. St Martin is a bit of an exception with a large tourist area and the airport both located in low lying areas. Fortunately they might escape the core there. I've been to Anguilla - it's a beautiful island and the people are wonderful. The homes are, as noted, largely reinforced concrete with sheet aluminum roofing. The roofs will lift but the structures will survive, for the most part. Anguilla's residential population is built largely on higher ground and won't be affected by surge. There are, however, a couple of really great resorts that will probably suffer extreme damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, No snow for you said: Correct but wonder what the storm surge will be on 180 MPH winds and also no way the roofs can hold. Yea. Again, it's the water, not the wind that is the most destructive. If your house is standing but it's completely flooded, the damage is extensive. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Well I'm not sure about the terrain of Anguilla however a lot of the homes in the Southeastern Caribbean are built on higher elevations precisely for this reason. St Martin is a bit of an exception with a large tourist area and the airport both located in low lying areas. Fortunately they might escape the core there. St Martin looks to be a direct hit or at least very close to the southern portion of the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I started a thread to discuss local impacts/questions people may have regarding Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Irma is an absolute beast this morning, I knew it would make Cat 5 but 175 mph wow. Have to wonder how much higher and lower the winds and pressure can go with her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: St Martin looks to be a direct hit or at least very close to the southern portion of the eye. At least the airport and resort areas of Maho Beach are located on the SW portion of the islands, so the winds should remain offshore there. And Philipsburg is in a protected cove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Irma is an absolute beast this morning, I knew it would make Cat 5 but 175 mph wow. Have to wonder how much higher and lower the winds and pressure can go with her. And SSTs only get warmer from here on out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Cam on Jost Van Dyke:: http://www.soggydollar.com/webcam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like it is still moving a hair south. Maybe just a wobble. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2017_11L/web/basicGifDisplay.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: At least the airport and resort areas of Maho Beach are located on the SW portion of the islands, so the winds should remain offshore there. And Philipsburg is in a protected cove. What is the elevation? Wind off- shore or not, the surge with this is going to come in like a tsunami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: We should get some pretty good looks at the core later as Irma gets into range on KJUA radar. Current long range loop just shows some widely scattered showers from the outermost bands. No need to wait for KJUA http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905052619835457537/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 928mb per recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: What is the elevation? Wind off- shore or not, the surge with this is going to come in like a tsunami. Those areas are pretty much at sea level. If you're not familiar with that island, the runway is basically on the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Insane numbers right there on the south west coast of Florida .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Those areas are pretty much at sea level. If you're not familiar with that island, the runway is basically on the beach. Maho Beach is tiny and the airport will sustain major damage if this track holds. The homes in the inland areas are poorly built so I'm very worried the people who live on my favorite vacation spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80 Breathtaking. God bless GOES-16. (Takes awhile to load.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Guys the HMON is not very useful here with regards to intensity because as others have mentioned it's over deepening the cyclone. With that being said the more realistic HWRF still shows a very intense Hurricane near the same spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Reinforced concrete or not, I don't think any structure can be counted on to withstand 200mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, Rjay said: Maho Beach is tiny and the airport will sustain major damage if this track holds. The homes in the inland areas are poorly built so I'm very worried the people who live on my favorite vacation spot. Yeah I stayed at the Sonesta four years ago and I was on that beach. Like I said, I'm hoping since they are on the SW side of the island they will be somewhat protected. Also hoping these mountains block some of the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Guys the HMON is not very useful here with regards to intensity because as others have mentioned it's over deepening the cyclone. With that being said the more realistic HWRF still shows a very intense Hurricane near the same spot. Its at 929mb approx now on last pass and is only entering warmer waters and what some have called an even more favorable environment. Not saying the HMON is right....likely off 30 mb+ but even if that's the case, still looking at a slightly sub 900mb storm potential. The HWRF could be the other end of the spectrum and be playing it too conservative imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgf Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 54 minutes ago, hooralph said: We have been to Saint Barths 10 + times (last time was last April). I know the island like the back of my hand and I am trying to wrap my head around that tiny island taking a direct Cat 5 hit. The island has a strong spirit, but it will never been the same. Current forecast, fwiw, has the eye passing just to the north, which will arguably be worse than taking a NW quadrant hit. Gustavia, the main commercial port, is oriented WNW, and I imagine the surge will inundate the entire downtown. I am also trying to imagine where one can find safe shelter. Most of the roads, schools and hotels are right at sea level, backed by steep hills that will be prone to mudslides. i travel there pretty regularly too - while i agree with what you say, i think they will fare better than any other island would if it got hit with a cat 5 eyewall - as they might... it is basically a 1st world place - people don't live in shacks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 So... let's say this hurricane doesn't really come across any resistance until it hits land.. is it likely to just continue strengthening overall (besides the ERC which could slow it down in the short term)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, LandofLincoln said: So... let's say this hurricane doesn't really come across any resistance until it hits land.. is it likely to just continue strengthening overall (besides the ERC which could slow it down in the short term)? Shear looks to remain very low, SST will only continue to increase and dry air doesn't look to be a problem. The biggest question mark is land interaction, first with PR and then with Hispaniola or Cuba down the road. So to answer your question, if the core can manage to avoid land until Florida, we should see temporary weakening due to ERC followed by re-intensification. I could see Irma getting down to sub 910mb, and that's a scary thought given the cyclone already has max winds of 175mph and it's only down to about 929mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, LandofLincoln said: So... let's say this hurricane doesn't really come across any resistance until it hits land.. is it likely to just continue strengthening overall (besides the ERC which could slow it down in the short term)? Someone posted a map a page or 2 back of all the category 5 storms and their time at that strength in the atlantic basin. Have a look at it. You'll see that it's incredibly difficult for a storm to maintain this intensity for any substantial period of time. Given that history it would be a little surprising if it even maintains it long enough for the center to reach the islands. You'd expect an ERC (or something less dramatic, slight impingement of outflow, bit of shear, etc.) to occur in the next 24 hours or so which lower the intensity slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KBO650 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 17 minutes ago, Tater Tot said: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80 Breathtaking. God bless GOES-16. (Takes awhile to load.) on southern side, what are those little 'bubbles' that appear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Shear looks to remain very low, SST will only continue to increase and dry air doesn't look to be a problem. The biggest question mark is land interaction, first with PR and then with Hispaniola or Cuba down the road. So to answer your question, if the core can manage to avoid land until Florida, we should see temporary weakening due to ERC followed by re-intensification. I could see Irma getting down to sub 910mb, and that's a scary thought given the cyclone already has max winds of 175mph and it's only down to about 929mb. Agreed NJ....I think realistically ~910mb would be the bottoming out point with no land interaction. What concerns me however is that majority of guidance shows a period of rapid deepening right as it approaches FL whether that be around the Keys or on the Eastern Coast of the state. Realistically 910mb but certainly some room and some signals it could edge lower in pressure. It's easy to model hug and say the extreme pressure forecasts will verify but there is a reason sub 900mb storms are so rare. Not saying Irma wont prove me wrong, but better to be realistic at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, KBO650 said: on southern side, what are those little 'bubbles' that appear? T-Storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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