LibertyBell Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It's a little weaker and with a storm this magnitude, it could more northerly than anything else, but it shouldn't escape. Big hit on Charleston incoming. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Well I guess all our talk of this possibly traversing The Loop Current goes out the window on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It's a little weaker and with a storm this magnitude, it could more northerly than anything else, but it shouldn't escape. Big hit on Charleston incoming. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Gotta watch this, could get another ec landfall again. So back to drawing board again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 This run would be even worse than the 0Z, East Florida, and Coastal GA/SC would all get seriously slammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It's a little weaker and with a storm this magnitude, it could more northerly than anything else, but it shouldn't escape. Big hit on Charleston incoming. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Hilton Head gets wrecked. If that pressure was to come true Charleston would have severe flooding all the way to the airbase. I think we're nearing that point where S. Fla is going to get absolutely wrecked and it's just a matter of 50 miles one way or the other. I'd like to see what they're modifying to get the GOM landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Where does gfs go after sc Due N into western VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 ADT down to 925mb and 140kt (160mph) which would obviously make it cat 5. Lets see what recon can find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Not done yet. Fun for MA incoming. Trough not as sharp, but it's there. Winds will be elevated and right side of remnant circulation should provide an opportunity for some spin ups Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 ADT down to 925mb and 140kt (160mph) which would obviously make it cat 5. Lets see what recon can find.Haven't been able to check Dvorak. You have the Raw T#? Last I heard was 7.1 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Not done yet. Fun for MA incoming. Trough not as sharp, but it's there. Winds will be elevated and right side of remnant circulation should provide an oppotunity for some spin ups Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk For some east coast action, would like for this to track east of the Apps. What would it take for that to happen and what percentage chance would you put on it (using eastern PA as a reference point- a track over eastern PA or just to its east?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Not done yet. Fun for MA incoming. Trough not as sharp, but it's there. Winds will be elevated and right side of remnant circulation should provide an opportunity for some spin ups Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Northeast and MA will def get some rain and winds according to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Haven't been able to check Dvorak. You have the Raw T#? Last I heard was 7.1 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 6.9 I believe. This is as of 091500 UTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Vortex recon called it 932mb based on Dropsonde. But the dropsonde looks suspicious to me: 932mb at 0m, but 925mb at 64m. I don't think the last 64m of atmosphere is 7mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Haven't been able to check Dvorak. You have the Raw T#? Last I heard was 7.1 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 05 SEP 2017 Time : 091500 UTC Lat : 16:39:15 N Lon : 57:12:27 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 7.0 / 925.2mb/140.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 7.0 6.9 6.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 With all the shifts west on the guidance, you have to think that a shift east will happen again. Similar to winter storms when the models go all out and then rebound a little. Now that we have better sampling of the trough, the models are probably able to get a better idea of the output. I think the trough will influence it a little more than thought. That's a strong air mass and front moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 hour ago, timnc910 said: So with all the 0z models going way west of previous runs.. I'm taking it that the east cost is fairly safe from any impacts from Irma? If trends are the thing to watch you can't deny the trends that happened all day yesterday. . Can the models go back to showing it's going east of Florida and making lf on east coast this very unlikely at this point.. all focused goes to Florida and the gulf coast.. the east coast will be spared from this storm.. Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk This should answer you question: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 For some east coast action, would like for this to track east of the Apps. What would it take for that to happen and what percentage chance would you put on it (using eastern PA as a reference point- a track over eastern PA or just to its east?)East coast action needs to at least ride the Apps. You want a sharper trough for phasing interaction and jet couplet to develop at 250-300mb. That would provide better lift due to divergent flow on the right entrance region of the jet streak over the NE and left exit coming in from Lakes. Chances of remnant circulation overhead need a bit more easterly presence once it makes turn and interacts with Lower Miss Valley shortwave. Can ride up coast a bit offshore and would want to hit somewhere around Wilmington NC to get over Central VA longitude. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: This should answer you question: LEK, looks like the GFS has Part 2 Jose right on the heels of Part 1 Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Thanks Westerly and Don. Looks like we might have ourselves a Cat 5 here soon. Right in edge. Been looking great all night. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: East coast action needs to at least ride the Apps. You want a sharper trough for phasing interaction and jet couplet to develop at 250-300mb. That would provide better lift due to divergent flow on the right entrance region of the jet streak over the NE and left exit coming in from Lakes. Chances of remnant circulation overhead need a bit more easterly presence once it makes turn and interacts with Lower Miss Valley shortwave. Can ride up coast a bit offshore and would want to hit somewhere around Wilmington NC to get over Central VA longitude. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Definitely- I use Wilmington, NC as my reference point too. It seems that TC that make landfall near there end up near the Jersey Coast or Western Long Island, while TC that make landfall near Cape Hatteras end up near the east end of LI or SE NE. Going the other way, if it makes landfall near Myrtle Beach or Charleston, for whatever reason those storms seem to go west of the Apps. Do you believe the mountains can influence the track of a TC? I'd assume that a track right over the spine is least likely and the TC (like what happens with coastal systems) gets pushed either west of the Apps or east of them. A sharper trough would also aid in enhancing the outflow so it would help the storm maintain some of its intensity (or at least not lose it as quickly as it would otherwise) on its trip north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 hour ago, timnc910 said: So with all the 0z models going way west of previous runs.. I'm taking it that the east cost is fairly safe from any impacts from Irma? If trends are the thing to watch you can't deny the trends that happened all day yesterday. . Can the models go back to showing it's going east of Florida and making lf on east coast this very unlikely at this point.. all focused goes to Florida and the gulf coast.. the east coast will be spared from this storm.. Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Nothing is off the table yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 They may be able to issue early watches for S FL and the Keys if these probabilities continue to be this high next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The 2 recon planes out right now seem fairly close together and are flying the same quadrant - any advantage to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Coming in for the first pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Recon reports 929.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Coming in for the first pass Second one. They have been in the storm since shortly before 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Griizzcoat said: Big shift east on that versus 0z guidance. Really need to watch that trough over the northeast--subtle changes have huge implications, even for southern Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Big shift east on that versus 0z guidance. Really need to watch that trough over the northeast--subtle changes have huge implications, even for southern Florida. The 0z UKMET shifted north also from 12z yesterday and it's usually the furthest south with tracks. 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Me don't like at all. GFS shifts east, Euro west. They're locking in boys and girls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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