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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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4 minutes ago, friedmators said:

worthless init at 988

Init pressures in Global models are irrelevant, really, for their track accuracy.

However, the CMC is indeed worthless because it's a primitive, terrible model with massive tropical track errors, and has been horrifically bad on Irma so far, as usual, the worst global model by far. 

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2 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Recon inbound.  Do we see Cat5 this pass?

I think we get close. 150mph is my guess. Do think we will find some 930s pressures too. With all the time and even warmer water ahead of Irma I definitely think she has the potential to bomb out in the low 900s granted she doesn't slam into Hispaniola or Cuba.

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8 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I guess the best (if you can call it that) case scenario would to have the eye-wall go through the Everglades like the new GFS is showing instead of populated areas in and around Miami. Either way, it sucks for Florida though.

Obviously any FL hit is an option no one wants, including the Everglades.  Everglades is an extremely hot, shallow body of water...  remember Wilma?  Wilma came across the Everglades and IMO just made her stronger... 

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52 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

Have you ever seen an advisory state a hurricane's wind velocity in anything other than 5mph increments? And if so, when? I ask only because I've been a weather geek longer than you've been alive and don't ever recall it being done. Not saying it's never happened, only that I have no recollection of it ever being done.

I bring this up because the knot to mph conversion does not often fit that 5mph-stepped advisory convenience. If a hurricane was measured at precisely 140kts, would the public advisory round that off, not to the nearest 5mph step of 155 but upward to the 5mph step of 160 that meets Cat 5 criteria?

Forgive me if I'm elaborating on something you already know.  You are correct that the public advisories list the maximum sustained surface wind speeds (MSW) in mph.  However, the NHC calculates that figure based on the unit of knots.  Correspondingly, 135 knots is 155 mph (highest-end category 4 intensity), while 140 knots is rounded to the nearest 5 mph increment of 160 mph.  Since the NHC uses knots to convert to the unit of mph, one will no longer see an advisory listing a MSW of 95 or 135 mph, respectively.   

As such, 140 knots x 1.15 = 161 mph (thus, rounded down to an even 160 mph).        

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5 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

As depicted below in the GFS Tampa does get onshore flow for about 12-15 hours.  It will likely be enough to cause widespread flooding.  Miami obviously gets raked on Irma's approach.

IMG_2538.PNG

You're absolutely correct. Apologies for the error. While there will be on-shore flow for both regions, they won't occur at the same time. I got a tad ahead of myself and forgot my counter-clockwise direction for some strange reason. So much for good first impressions. :-/

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