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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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6 minutes ago, kenavp said:

I'm in St. Pete Beach about 30 minutes west of Tampa over here on the Gulf side of FL. Those ensembles are terrifying. This is something I would have been licking my lips over 10 years ago. Oh how things change now that I'm approaching 40 with children, etc. 

I feel you.  Not liking the op or ensembles, at all.  Going over the TBT and county emergency and evac info this evening.  

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Just now, SteveVa said:

SoFlo folks, if tracking winter storms for years has taught me anything, it's that you never want to be in the bullseye 4-6 days out.

In this case that might be a positive thing.  

Except keeping VA in a blizzard bullseye is akin to keeping sne in a cane bullseye.

Little easier to pull off in Miami.

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1 minute ago, SteveVa said:

SoFlo folks, if tracking winter storms for years has taught me anything, it's that you never want to be in the bullseye 4-6 days out.

In this case that might be a positive thing.  

Being in the bullseye by both the Euro and GFS, as well as the GEFS/EPS/CMC ensembles in addition to several hi-res models is pretty problematic.

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I just hope people in Florida pay extremely close attention to NOAA/NHC and not a sea of wishcasters and weenies on social media. How the timing evolves and plays out in the modeling and possible future shifts back and forth until we get within the NHC's better forecast skill is going to be hyper critical. The masses throughout the Florida peninsula are going to need to have patience. This is complicated to hell and back this far out, besides getting within the 72 hr range.


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12 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

I believe Windspeed may have commented already about this among others but the timing of a turn north is still  just outside the models skill range.  The trend has been a turn north forever but it keeps getting displaced somewhat farther in time and farther west.   I don't expect a drastic change at 00z when the new data is ingested but I do expect a change especially within the 5 day.  We may very well see a run back east at 120-144.  The current status is showing the parts are beginning to move after being fairly stagnant the last 48 hours. I would like to see some consistency in the 120 hour range of a northward pivot point before I'll start to buy where, if and when. 

Excellent post, and summarizes my thoughts pretty well.  I'm expecting a stabilization of the west trends and a trend back towards the east...possibly beginning with the 00z runs.  That said,  it's still too early to rule out any reasonable track scenario from west into Cuba and/or the Dominican Republic (could change everything) to swinging abruptly NE and missing the USA, entirely.     

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From looking at the IR it appears Irma is no longer moving S of due west. Now to watch for the WNW turn. As far as the forecast, the turn is forecast to occur too far out to skillfully predict what will happen, also prior interaction with Cuba is still not off the table. Regarding the 8 pm, NHC only shifts the track at 5 and 11 advisories.

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

I just hope people in Florida pay extremely close attention to NOAA/NHC and not a sea of wishcasters and weenies on social media. How the timing evolves and plays out in the modeling and possible future shifts back and forth until we get within the NHC's better forecast skill is going to be hyper critical. The masses throughout the Florida peninsula are going to need to have patience. This is complicated to hell and back this far out, much less getting within the 72 hr range.

If anything, I hope the Florida people don't fall prey to the wishcasting of the storm missing to the north and thus not preparing. Very few Florida people want anything to do with this. We don't wish it on anyone either, of course. Though many probably wish it upon themselves. 

The Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area is woefully unprepared for something of this magnitude. Tampa? Forget about it. It wouldn't exist after this.

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I'm located in ENC and have been trying to just educate myself on Irma and how to properly track the storm. I follow tropicaltidbits, the forums here, & storm2k.org so far to try to learn as much as possible. By no means am I trying to be a meteorologist, just looking for genuine information. Anything anyone can tell me about the latest models & what the possibilities are here? Local reporting likes to water down every weather event, so just seeking any help. Thanks everyone! 

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4 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I just hope people in Florida pay extremely close attention to NOAA/NHC and not a sea of wishcasters and weenies on social media. How the timing evolves and plays out in the modeling and possible future shifts back and forth until we get within the NHC's better forecast skill is going to be hyper critical. The masses throughout the Florida peninsula are going to need to have patience. This is complicated to hell and back this far out, besides getting within the 72 hr range.

 

Yeah agree.  I hate to think what could happen if a large number of people are on the roads when/if Irma rides up Florida.  I booked a hotel in Orlando in case the track shifts West to the Gulf, but the 18z GFS run makes Orlando not look too fun, so I would just stay in Tampa if that track continues to hold.  It's just going to be an incredibly difficult situation for Miami Dade with that mass of humanity and exposure.

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2 minutes ago, ENC2017 said:

I'm located in ENC and have been trying to just educate myself on Irma and how to properly track the storm. I follow tropicaltidbits, the forums here, & storm2k.org so far to try to learn as much as possible. By no means am I trying to be a meteorologist, just looking for genuine information. Anything anyone can tell me about the latest models & what the possibilities are here? Local reporting likes to water down every weather event, so just seeking any help. Thanks everyone! 

Go back about 4 or 5 pages and start reading.  You'll get a lot of information.

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Interesting - hmmm definitely a slight westerly shift in the GEFS at 18Z from 12Z with many more members in the Gulf even with the slightly northerly track early on.  Still way up in the air.  BTW, I'm in Melbourne, FL (mainland side) and have a hotel booked in Tampa just in case.  I figure I'd try give myself options on either coast just to be safe and to beat the rush from folks in S FL the next few days.  If it rides the spine I guess I'll just stay here :(

 

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Completely green on this forum so please forgive a question I have not seen yet. Granted, the path through SFL is not confirmed. But what would storm surge look like in the Keys? And what factors most strongly predict storm surge--pressure, wind direction, wind speed, timing of tides? 

 

Lived in middle Keys during Wilma, and the storm surge was the biggest factor for damage, over wind and rain. The island that Marathon is on was completely awash. Thank Dog it happened during daylight hours. 

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1 minute ago, andyhb said:

HWRF is coupled, HMON is not in the Atlantic basin.

Added info regarding HWRF

 

  •  Non-hydrostatic, limited-area, finite-difference model
  •  Employs three “nested grids” (the inner two grid follow the TC)
  •  Highest resolution is 3 km grid spacing 
  •  Incorporates a complex “bogus vortex” based on observations
  •  Includes the “3-D assimilation” of environmental observations
  •  Coupled to the ocean
     
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8 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Maybe someone already mentioned this, but the 8pm AST update has the winds at 140 mph now.

Don't think they did (I didn't notice) and I was going to mention the Air Force recon found 135kt flight level and 111kt on a dropsonde. I was thinking that 130 was pretty conservative with those observations so not surprised at all they bumped it up.

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2 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Don't think they did (I didn't notice) and I was going to mention the Air Force recon found 135kt flight level and 111kt on a dropsonde. I was thinking that 130 was pretty conservative with those observations so not surprised at all they bumped it up.

Surprised nobody posted this, 132kt at 953mb. 

IMG_1606.JPG

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Major runs on gas and grocery stores already in S. Florida.  The hype train has already started.  

Well the governor declared a state of emergency in preparation for Irma. It was probably already hyped a bit after Harvey, but that type of warning will put most people in motion if they weren't already. 

 

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