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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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Fact about Miami-Dade county: According to a 2016 census report,[1]the county had a population of 2,712,945,[2]making it the most populous county in Florida and the seventh-most populous county in the United States.[3]

in 1990, around Andrew time, the population was roughly 800,000 less, to put it in perspective.  

In homestead alone the population more than doubled since Andrew.  

 

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1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

gfs_mslp_uv850_seus_24.png

This is not a good run.

Being born in Hollywood, raised in Ft Lauderdale till 16, having family, friends, & other interests down there. I can only look at that image with stunned silence. Gotta keep telling myself it's a week out because even with pressure bias that's devastation from Homestead on up!

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The one thing I have noticed on all of the models as it approaches Florida, pressure values ignored, the pressure tendency is for it to be strengthening at landfall like Harvey did going into Texas. Right now there is a consensus if you have no major land interaction with Cuba or last minute ERC, that you will have a very strong storm strengthening upon landfall.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

GFS has a bias to over deepen tropical cyclones since it's "upgrade"  don't take the intensity verbatim.  Shifts in track and upper air features are the key factors to watch right now.  

Honestly you can hedge what the GFS is outputing by following the euro for the same hrs as it essentially has the same track into South Fla. Euro is 930's into southern Fla so we're looking a cat 5 either way at this point. 

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3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

The one thing I have noticed on all of the models as it approaches Florida, pressure values ignored, the pressure tendency is for it to be strengthening at landfall like Harvey did going into Texas. Right now there is a consensus if you have no major land interaction with Cuba or last minute ERC, that you will have a very strong storm strengthening upon landfall.

Makes perfect sense given the upper level pattern and the warm SSTs associated with the gulf stream. I'd hedge if it ends up in that spot with half decent core structure, it'll strengthen(possibly significantly). Environment there is near perfect, only hindrance being some minor southwesterly shear, which would be hindered some once the storm turns northward.

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Something to keep in mind -- the Florida peninsula is about 150 miles wide -- that's much narrower than the margin of error of this storm as it makes the turn. This could easily pass just east (more likely, it would appear) or west of the peninsula and be a beast as it hits Ga/SC/NC or the panhandle. 

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2 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Being born in Hollywood, raised in Ft Lauderdale till 16, having family, friends, & other interests down there. I can only look at that image with stunned silence. Gotta keep telling myself it's a week out because even with pressure bias that's devastation from Homestead on up!

I have friends all along the i-95 side of Florida. The ones from the Space Coast to Jacksonville were there for last year's storm, so they have a better idea where to go. But one friend from HS recently moved to the PBI area in the last couple of months, working for Burns and McConnell. And I know he doesn't know where the major evac routes will be if these runs come close to reality (higher central pressure of course, but geographic path). I'm hoping he and his wife will know to get out of there in time.

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1 minute ago, Wow said:

Still heading NNW toward the S Apps

Big differences in euro/gfs UL pattern emerge after Irma passes southern Fla. definitely low confidence in track beyond that point. The GEFS mean and EPS mean clearly have a turn towards the north/NNE after LF, but the mean LF position is further west, so it remains largely over land. If the GFS and Euro are correct with its pass over/near Miami I expect she will come back over open water.

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I mean it's kind of ridiculous to feel like an unprecedented event just occurred and it's merely the last 12 hrs of global model simulations. But I've definitely had my fill; the two main globals can go ahead and start resolving different track solutions and we can put these away for all time weenie runs. Thank goodness Irma is still a good six days away. Ready for a flip soon.

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