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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Andrew also hit in a different ERA for south Florida.  The population in places like Homestead Florida City and Leisure City was minuscule to now.  Also development of high rises and more or less only started along the coast from Palm Beach to Miami in 1988-1990.  A slightly larger eye wall today and a track 10-20 miles north I couldn't imagine the damage 

Exactly. Wilma showed us that widespread Cat-1 and Cat-2 winds can cause more than $20 billion damage across S Florida. The new S Florida density really hasn't been tested by a Floyd-sized cat 4 direct hit.

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35 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Andrew also hit in a different ERA for south Florida.  The population in places like Homestead Florida City and Leisure City was minuscule to now.  Also development of high rises and more or less only started along the coast from Palm Beach to Miami in 1988-1990.  A slightly larger eye wall today and a track 10-20 miles north I couldn't imagine the damage 

A larger storm with Andrew's pressure won't be a Cat 5 (but will still cause a ton of damage.)

Andrew was reanalyzed as a Cat 5 after the fact.

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Correct it goes around the western side and hits Tampa then crosses the state and ends up near Savannah

Yup, figured as much.  I don't think NHC will do "much" with the track at 5 PM until we see the the next set of 00 Z runs w/ more data ...  Any Hispaniola and/or then Cuba interaction down the road will be the biggest wildcard

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Irma now a Category 4 Hurricane:

 
000
WTNT31 KNHC 042036
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

...IRMA STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...PREPARATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 54.4W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES
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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Still way too far out to make a call obviously but a hit just north of Tampa would devastate the whole Tampa Bay Area with surge. That area is very prone to it and heavily populated. It was almost Charley but luckily for them it ticked east and hit closer to Fort Myers. 

Charley had a tiny surge for a cat 4 due to small size and very late intensification, so the surge threat wasn't worst case for Tampa.  Should Irma take a track up the W. coast of FL it would likely have far more powerful for surge than Charley could have.  Much larger storm and already very intense.

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System is moving w now so that forecast wouldn't verify just based on that. Would need to still be moving with some southerly component.

2 minutes ago, Casualbrain said:

Dunno - looks like the 12z UKMET (Blue line track below) prediction to me - it (UKMET Tropical) is updated only twice daily.
 

Screen Shot 2017-09-04 at 5.04.44 PM.png

 

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2 minutes ago, Casualbrain said:

Dunno - looks like the 12z UKMET (Blue line track below) prediction to me - it (UKMET Tropical) is updated only twice daily.
 

Screen Shot 2017-09-04 at 5.04.44 PM.png

I would wager the UKMET, especially, is wrong. The southern movement component of Irma has ceased. Might come back, but for the meantime, it's gone. A possible adjustment north might be reasonable at 0z. IMO. 

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17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Still way too far out to make a call obviously but a hit just north of Tampa would devastate the whole Tampa Bay Area with surge. That area is very prone to it and heavily populated. It was almost Charley but luckily for them it ticked east and hit closer to Fort Myers. 

Even a cat 1 or 2 on a certain trajectory would be a problem.  Downtown has been developing aggressively and there is a lot of property and people near water's edge.  I'm sheltering in place if the track holds to the east, and will have to evac if it shifts west.  

In general it would be a nightmare given the population of Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties.

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