NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 12z HWRF down to 923mb by hr 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: How surge vulnerable is the east coast of FL? I know west coast is extremely surge vulnerable. I'd be interested in a more authoritative answer, but the way I have always understood it is that the shallow coastal waters in the gulf enhance surge. The E. Coast of FL gets much deeper much faster, so it's doesn't provide as much enhancement. I think the danger of neighborhoods well inland becoming flooded by surge is much greater on the gulf side. Of course the E. Coast has much greater population density right on the waterfront so there are plenty of structures and people in harms way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Most of the GEFS match the OP, some slightly East, a few into the Gulf and a straggler or two into SNE. None are OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 One of these is not like the others lol https://weather.us/forecast/4164138-miami/xltrend/nor/pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Latest recon pass suggests it is about to complete another ERC. Inner wind max is dropping off as outer one takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherboy80 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 GEFS really not all that different from the 06Z with perhaps a tighter clustering into the Keys and S FL ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 The HMON initialized at 926mb so I'm not sure how useful it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 As a reminder, it's in the process of an eyewall replacement cycle. Winds will be a bit low until it completes. Outer eyewall is taking over as shown on recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The HMON initialized at 926mb so I'm not sure how useful it will be. No it didn't....come on. It initialized at 943.5....double check please before posting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, csnavywx said: Latest recon pass suggests it is about to complete another ERC. Inner wind max is dropping off as outer one takes over. This storm will be unique from a research angle, because it seems to me that it's taken Irma about 12 hours or so to complete these ERC's. Some storms struggle to make it complete in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The HMON initialized at 926mb so I'm not sure how useful it will be. 943mb I see the confusion, you clicked the next frame which showed a ~20mb drop. Probably in response to a completion of a ERC. that will be a incredible drop IF it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, Wow said: GEFS following suit and trending north with the mean low placement. Right over Miami at 144 Looks like the OP second trough was an outlier among the ensembles D 7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: No it didn't....come on. It initialized at 943.5....double check please before posting! But then it's down to 926 mb by hour 3 which would have been two hours ago, so the general cautionary advice remains sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, Juliancolton said: But then it's down to 926 mb by hour 3 which would have been two hours ago, so the general cautionary advice remains sound. I don't disagree, but post accurate info.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 For posterity's sake but this is pretty scary.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 45 foot waves on top of a storm surge. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 24 minutes ago, Wow said: GEFS following suit and trending north with the mean low placement. Right over Miami at 144 Gefs members shifted east from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: For posterity's sake but this is pretty scary.... If the GFS and other models continue to zero in on south Florida over the next couple days, might be prudent of government officials and the NWS/NHC to start sounding the alarms (I.e, talk about the potentially devasating impacts) and start evacuations early. Things can, and likely will, change though. So no need to do that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 12 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: For posterity's sake but this is pretty scary.... FYI, surge isn't as big a danger on the east coast of FL as the west/north coast because the shelf is very close to the shore there. A wider shelf allows more water to pile up and be driven on to land. That's not to say the surge wouldn't be catastrophic in some areas though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: For posterity's sake but this is pretty scary.... Zoomed into Miami using custom domain tool https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/787-w-261-n/sign-wave-height-direction-ft/20170910-1800z.html 48ft max! Holy cow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, jojo762 said: If the GFS and other models continue to zero in on south Florida over the next couple days, might be prudent of government officials and the NWS/NHC to start sounding the alarms (I.e, talk about the potentially devasating impacts) and start evacuations early. Things can, and likely will, change though. So no need to do that now. I think the couple days thing is key. If we're seeing similar solutions with respect to Florida in a couple days, the ball will need to start rolling. It takes time to do a proper evacuation. What also needs to be kept in mind is that people who don't necessarily have to evacuate may start to panic if a cat 4/5 is progged/forecast, adding gridlock on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: FYI, surge isn't as big a danger on the east coast of FL as the west/north coast because the shelf is very close to the shore there. A wider shelf allows more water to pile up and be driven on to land. That's not to say the surge wouldn't be catastrophic in some areas though. I should have been more clear that this is not a surge map. But for the reasons you mentioned very significant wave heights could be very close to shore especially in that area due to the geography. Of course this is a modeled representation of what if. I don't think I've ever seen 45-50 footers modeled that close to shore anywhere on the EC. Thats why I mentioned it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: FYI, surge isn't as big a danger on the east coast of FL as the west/north coast because the shelf is very close to the shore there. A wider shelf allows more water to pile up and be driven on to land. That's not to say the surge wouldn't be catastrophic in some areas though. Eh. Most of my family is in SE Florida, some along a1a, which is essentially a barrier island. The storm as progged would cause a complete wash over of many areas, including downtown ft lauderdale, deerfield beach and pompano. Matthew caused major problems for these areas and it didn't even hit. Saving grace is that most of these areas are well built apartment buildings, so there wouldn't be significant damage to structures right along the coast. And the houses that are along the coast are very well built. But don't be mistaken, large population centers would be under a lot of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 For posterity's sake but this is pretty scary.... That is the highest SLOSH simulation totals I have seen. Is this based on the GFS intensity and landfall? EDIT: Oh jeez, my apologies. It clearly says Wave Heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: That is the higheat SLOSH simulation totals I have seen. Is this based on the GFS intensity and landfall? It's the actual output of the GFS and does need to be taken with a whole box of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 12Z ECMWF is running! Get it in full resolution for free: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/623-w-130-n/relative-humidity-700mb/20170904-2100z.html that's 700mb RH, you can see all pressure level data plus other parameters such as PWAT, simulated reflectivity, and more via menus to the left of the image. You can also create custom domains. Click image to zoom in or click near edge to pan. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 It's the actual output of the GFS and does need to be taken with a whole box of salt Yes. That is still absurd wave heights at shore and makes sense to be that high based on the GFS model. But when my eyes saw that as a surge map at first I scoffed. Still, likely way overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 It gets fully Shredderola'd on the UKMET; then over Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Brutal https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/635-w-182-n/base-reflectivity/20170906-1200z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 hour ago, SN_Lover said: This has it phasing with the first SW the GFS has it phasing with a second SW. Tricky forecast and shows anything can still happen. Hopefully the 0z runs provide some clarity. I wouldn't expect any clarity on a 0Z run 7 days before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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