EasternLI Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 For those interested, this was the 00z Ukie track from the FSU site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 29 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Nope need it to avoid DR. Got alot of family in Puerto Plata. That would be a disaster there Sorry man. Didn't mean to be glib. Just hoping it dissipates somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 So is the interaction with Cuba dependent on the movement in the next couple of days? Because right now the storm is heading WSW, but in response to the trough it is going to start to turn west and then wnw for awhile before heading back west before the final turn north? I think we will have to see how much latitude it gains in that WNW movement in the next few days before heading back west. 13 minutes ago, Duality said: Was Chuck that said that Mdecoy OK, thanks, my fault Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Looks like EPS mean was close or a little to the right of the OP at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like EPS mean was close or a little to the right of the OP at 0Z. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DI4IUwtVoAAT1cj?format=jpg&name=large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Outflow is still restricted to the NE, but it's slowly improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Glad I'm out of the woods here in NC, don't wish this storm on anyone because it's nothing but death and destruction! Prayers for FL or wherever south and west! After living through Fran ,Dennis, Floyd and most recently Matthew I'm breathing a sigh of relief. Just let my family and friends know all would be well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, rjtysinger said: Glad I'm out of the woods here in NC, don't wish this storm on anyone because it's nothing but death and destruction! Prayers for FL or wherever south and west! After living through Fran ,Dennis, Floyd and most recently Matthew I'm breathing a sigh of relief. Just let my family and friends know all would be well! Who said you're out of the woods? This is still more than a week away from landfall. Still way too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, rjtysinger said: Glad I'm out of the woods here in NC, don't wish this storm on anyone because it's nothing but death and destruction! Prayers for FL or wherever south and west! After living through Fran ,Dennis, Floyd and most recently Matthew I'm breathing a sigh of relief. Just let my family and friends know all would be well! You're definitely not out of the woods yet. Keep an eye on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, rjtysinger said: Glad I'm out of the woods here in NC, don't wish this storm on anyone because it's nothing but death and destruction! Prayers for FL or wherever south and west! After living through Fran ,Dennis, Floyd and most recently Matthew I'm breathing a sigh of relief. Just let my family and friends know all would be well! Way too early to say that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, rjtysinger said: Glad I'm out of the woods here in NC, don't wish this storm on anyone because it's nothing but death and destruction! Prayers for FL or wherever south and west! After living through Fran ,Dennis, Floyd and most recently Matthew I'm breathing a sigh of relief. Just let my family and friends know all would be well! There's still a lot of time left for models to change, I wouldn't say NC is out of the woods by any means. Wait until later before coming to any conclusions because what you see now is by no means gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, rjtysinger said: Glad I'm out of the woods here in NC, don't wish this storm on anyone because it's nothing but death and destruction! Prayers for FL or wherever south and west! After living through Fran ,Dennis, Floyd and most recently Matthew I'm breathing a sigh of relief. Just let my family and friends know all would be well! that's really irresponsible and immature for you to tell anyone you are out of or not out of the woods. The final outcome is still far from decided and a lot can change. Anywhere from FL to Canadian maritimes to ots is still very much at play at these leads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Every thing I read here said its FL to the Gulf and were only a week out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, rjtysinger said: Glad I'm out of the woods here in NC, don't wish this storm on anyone because it's nothing but death and destruction! Prayers for FL or wherever south and west! After living through Fran ,Dennis, Floyd and most recently Matthew I'm breathing a sigh of relief. Just let my family and friends know all would be well! NC impacts still very much on the table. ECMWF simulated radar shows this: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/800-w-320-n/base-reflectivity/20170912-1200z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, rjtysinger said: Every thing I read here said its FL to the Gulf and were only a week out! We're just looking at the forecast models. Yes, they are targeting FL for the most part but is very possible that will change... could trend back north... could continue to trend south and end up in the GOM. This is a tricky forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, rjtysinger said: Every thing I read here said its FL to the Gulf and were only a week out! That's one set of runs from today's models. Yesterday it was going up the coast and the day before possibly OTS. The models are not in their better time ranges yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 30 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: So is the interaction with Cuba dependent on the movement in the next couple of days? Because right now the storm is heading WSW, but in response to the trough it is going to start to turn west and then wnw for awhile before heading back west before the final turn north? I think we will have to see how much latitude it gains in that WNW movement in the next few days before heading back west. No I wouldn't say that. You can't extrapolate short term track deviations into the longer term with hurricanes generally. It's just too complicated. In some situations you can think of it a bit like a funnel. No matter where the storm enters the steering currents will ultimately move it to a similar location. Other times it's just the opposite and 50 miles can be the difference between getting picked up by a trough and missing it. In that case a 50 mile short term difference could result in a thousand mile difference at day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, rjtysinger said: Every thing I read here said its FL to the Gulf and were only a week out! Nothing is "off the table", (I so hate that phrase.) Pay attention to the fact that all the models are shifting all over the place. "Only a week out"....please! There are so many potential outcomes, soley determined by the surrounding synoptic environment, that are certainly far from being resolved at these lead times. Check the average mean of error for track forecasts 6-7 days out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 31 minutes ago, Jaguars said: Sorry man. Didn't mean to be glib. Just hoping it dissipates somehow. I understand what you mean. Not a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Okay, dumb question here, but many dismiss the strong storm past Cuba on the GFS. Isn't land interaction part of the model variables? If not, that's a pretty epic fail not to consider something so utterly basic. If so, they should just disband NOAA entirely for such incompetence. That can't be the case, so why dismiss it completely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 There's a reason NHC doesn't do 7 day forecasts yet. And it's closer to 8 days out depending on where it makes landfall. Not much more than a decade ago the NHC didn't even do 4 or 5 day forecasts (started publicly in 2003). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 I understand that and not trying to troll but a lot don't. I had family visit the site and felt all was OK based off of posts. Hopefully an OTS option is still viable. I understand the discussion based off of model runs but just wanted to throw out that not everyone does and some come here and read posts and take it for gospel! Not trying to say that disclaimers should be thrown out, maybe based off current modeling or synopsis. A lot of people visit boards when threats present themselves and take everything seriously. Whether they are trying to learn or are just concerned! Hope everyone stays safe and Irma fan tails you all on her way ots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 There's still a pretty good consensus between GFS, ECMWF, UKMET and the ensembles GEFS and EPS at D5 lead time putting Irma north of Cuba. However, now that we're getting into the time range at which the trough interaction will begin I'd say the confidence on D5 forecasts have moved from above average to just average now. I did notice on last night's 0Z run of the ECMWF that Irma is being shown to get captured in the RER of the ULL jet streak like what the GFS was showing. After that we're talking about D7+ lead times so it's pure speculation at this point, but that jet streak takes on anticyclonic curvature. At this time the subtropical jet over the northern GOM intensifies. Verbatim the Euro show Irma getting placed in the unfavorable right exit region, but I could envision a placement in the left exit region resulting in a jet coupling setup with the northern jet. The point is once we get a day or two further into this I could see D5 forecast skill dropping to below average confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 If Irma can avoid the shredder, watch out. Zero dry air, vortex dominates the shear pattern. ECMWF data available for free at weather.us PWAT: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/precipitable-water-in/20170910-1200z.html Shear: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/deep-layer-shear/20170910-1200z.html Other parameters via menus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 The eye has really cleared out. This is the best Irma has looked in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, rjtysinger said: I understand that and not trying to troll but a lot don't. I had family visit the site and felt all was OK based off of posts. Hopefully an OTS option is still viable. I understand the discussion based off of model runs but just wanted to throw out that not everyone does and some come here and read posts and take it for gospel! Not trying to say that disclaimers should be thrown out, maybe based off current modeling or synopsis. A lot of people visit boards when threats present themselves and take everything seriously. Whether they are trying to learn or are just concerned! Hope everyone stays safe and Irma fan tails you all on her way ots! I think realistically, folks will get a 3-day notice of go or no-go. Everyone knows its out there days and days in advance thanks to the satellites, and it can be followed on its way west with all sorts of possible tracks. But those possibilities can't take into account a sudden shift in the jetstream further north due to a system out in the northern Pacific that hasn't hit the west coast yet that can influence where it goes next. It's only a series of guesses based on current conditions, possible changes in those conditions in the future, and climatology for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Looks like Irma's current heading is at 267 degrees which is almost due West. Think the stronger this gets, the more the beta effect will win out. Think the chances of a CONUS landfall are certainly on the rise. Hope everyone has their hurricane plan ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 16 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Looks like Irma's current heading is at 267 degrees which is almost due West. Think the stronger this gets, the more the beta effect will win out. Think the chances of a CONUS landfall are certainly on the rise. Hope everyone has their hurricane plan ready! Looks like this has a good shot to end the record September streak. 0 hurricane landfalls along US East Coast during September since Jeanne (2004). Longest period on record w/ 0 EC Sept. hurricanes. 7:30 AM - 3 Sep 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Thinking out loud. If that next wave in the C ATL can develop enough, could it deliver a blow to the WAR significant enough to let Irma come east? ECMWF H5 data free from weather.us: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/geopotential-height-500hpa/20170910-1200z.html can get vorticity, RH, winds, heights for all pressure levels via menus left of image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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