lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Looks like it's coming of the west coast of Cuba hr 135. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 This thing may be going to the gulf... hr 141 it looks off the W side of Cuba. By this point the things gotta be in pretty rough shape after being over Cuba for nearly 24 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: This thing may be going to the gulf... hr 141 it looks off the W side of Cuba. By this point the things gotta be in pretty rough shape after being over Cuba for nearly 24 hours... Looks like at 150 it's starting to move WNW edit: 156 it is moving NW back over Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 162 moving due north. North of Havana, moving towards south Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Look out tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 LF. Tampa Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Hour 186 my aunt and uncle's house in Kissimmee destroyed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Can anyone else who has higher resolution maps see what the pressures are on this coming off Cuba and at LF in Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 945.3 pressure in latest recon pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: LF. Tampa Florida. No. Much further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Morris said: No. Much further south. My apologies. That's where it looks like on the 500mb maps on IW. Very hard to see with all the lines packed into there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Morris said: 945.3 pressure in latest recon pass. Wow so we go from 961mb at latest advisory to 945 at 8am? Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 4 more runs westward and Irma will hit Houston.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Dropsonde found 948 mb on the second pass, but with 10kts winds, it probably missed the center. 3 mb drop from the previous pass either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 hours ago, RU848789 said: I find it interesting that both the Euro and GFS show Irma coming very close to Cuba in the 120 hour range, whereas the NHC predicted location at 120 hours is the Central Bahamas, about 75-100 miles NE of where the Euro/GFS have Irma at that time. May not sound like much, but 75 miles is the difference between a storm coming up the center of the Florida peninsula vs. coming up just off the coast of Florida, a la Matthew last year. The CMC looks to be almost in the exact same location in the Central Bahamas at 114 hours, 12 hours earlier than when the NHC has Irma in that location (120 hours from the NHC is 126 hours for the 0Z model suite, as the NHC has a 2 am EDT initial condition, vs. the models' initial condition of 8 pm EDT, I believe). So, the NHC did adjust their track significantly SW towards Cuba in the Day 4/5 forecast, with their 5 am update, as per below; not quite clear what this means for the long term, although it has to make a US landfall a bit more likely and an out-to-sea outcome less likely. Here's what they said in their most recent discussion on Irma's track:A strong, stationary mid-tropospheric high centered over the central Atlantic is forcing Irma on a west-southwestward course, and the initial motion estimate remains 255/12 kt. Irma will begin rounding the southwestern edge of the high soon, which will allow the hurricane to turn westward later today and then west- northwestward in 36-48 hours. Down the road, a large mid-latitude trough is expected to dig southward over the eastern United States during the next 72 hours, but the global models have been trending toward quickly lifting the trough out over New England and eastern Canada on days 4 and 5, with the subtropical ridge building westward toward Florida. As a result, it's becoming increasingly likely that Irma would maintain a west-northwestward heading on days 3 through 5, and the track guidance shifted significantly westward on this cycle during that period. Remarkably, the track models are very tightly clustered through day 5, which increases the confidence in the westward shift of the latest NHC forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 That ridge to the north with forced the very rare WSW motion is the real deal. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 When do the GFS ensembles come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 12 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: When do the GFS ensembles come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 My take at this point, the trends westward won't stop, and I'd not be at all surprised if this goes over or to the south of PR, Haiti/DR and Cuba....not a forecast, but I think the odds of an even more southern track, ATT, are very high. (For posterity, the current track:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 I think another eyewall replacement cycle is coming. Secondary speed maximum showing up on the north side in all passes so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 ECMWF data from 0Z supports quite the PRE over the southeast US, even if Irma herself ends up in Miami. Plenty of strong moisture transport into the right entrance region of the jet streak off New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, JasonOH said: I think another eyewall replacement cycle is coming. Secondary speed maximum showing up on the north side in all passes so far. This storm has to be on pace for most EWRC's ever. Easily up to 4 or 5 (or more?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: My take at this point, the trends westward won't stop, and I'd not be at all surprised if this goes over or to the south of PR, Haiti/DR and Cuba....not a forecast, but I think the odds of an even more southern track, ATT, are very high. (For posterity, the current track:) Well if this does verify, you called it, didn't you say less than 5% this hits north of Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 I think if Irma takes the 6Z GFS track over Cuba like that it will essentially be destroyed, we will be tracking a tropical storm on the other end and it will be a big yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Well if this does verify, you called it, didn't you say less than 5% this hits north of Florida? Nope, this is my first take wrt Irma in any form. I don't do 10 day cane forecasts....nor should anyone one else, unless they are professional dart throwers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Land interaction will be the only impediment to a really strong storm. Hardly any shear (just a little out of the west) and no dry air to speak of according to ECMWF https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/relative-humidity-700mb/20170910-1800z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 12 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: My take at this point, the trends westward won't stop, and I'd not be at all surprised if this goes over or to the south of PR, Haiti/DR and Cuba....not a forecast, but I think the odds of an even more southern track, ATT, are very high. (For posterity, the current track:) If this does turn out to be the solution as it is now depicted it looks to be a landfall somewhere in the Fort Myers /Naples area. How strong would the effect be on the east coast of FL. My limited knowledge would tell me that the EC of FL would be on the dreaded east side of the storm but at the same time about 100-125 miles from the center. Would that translate into say high end TS /low end hurricane winds for the east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, bigtenfan said: If this does turn out to be the solution as it is now depicted it looks to be a landfall somewhere in the Fort Myers /Naples area. How strong would the effect be on the east coast of FL. My limited knowledge would tell me that the EC of FL would be on the dreaded east side of the storm but at the same time about 100-125 miles from the center. Would that translate into say high end TS /low end hurricane winds for the east coast? If the GFS is correct with that Ft Myers landfall idea, it'll be pretty hairy on the eastern coast too. Onshore fetch will help accelerate winds and land interaction usually helps increase the size of a storm's wind field though it'll weaken the max. GFS gusts: https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/814-w-261-n/gusts-1h-3h-mph/20170911-1500z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, bigtenfan said: If this does turn out to be the solution as it is now depicted it looks to be a landfall somewhere in the Fort Myers /Naples area. How strong would the effect be on the east coast of FL. My limited knowledge would tell me that the EC of FL would be on the dreaded east side of the storm but at the same time about 100-125 miles from the center. Would that translate into say high end TS /low end hurricane winds for the east coast? If, (big if), a track straight up the peninsula were to verify, with the progged size and intensity, I think low end cane wind gusts would be felt on both coasts, along with higher winds over the Everglades, and deep into the interior of the peninsula, with the worst effects felt on the E. Coast of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Cuba would disrupt the system pretty effectively and it would have to be a wait and see after that to see if it could re-organize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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