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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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47 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

There's a pretty significant shift south at 120. This brings the GFS into even better consensus with the ECMWF and UKMET. It does appear that there is a slight turn left like what the UKMET shows after 120 and then a turn to the north before 168. There would definitely be a lot of lingering time in the Bahamas if model depiction becomes reality. You can also see Irma starting to interact with the trough by hour 144 and by hour 168 the cyclone is clearly tucked into the RER of an anticyclonically curved ULL jet streak so it should have a lot ULL divergence and a good outflow channel to support a deep cyclone. So far there is nothing I see with this 18Z run to make me think forecast confidence isn't above average at D5 lead times.

q7Xji60.png

I'm new to reading these sorts of maps, but is the gist of what you're saying that at the upper levels of the atmosphere that air is flowing away from the center of low pressure, basically allowing for deepening low pressure? The opposite would be if air were crashing into the area of low pressure at that level preventing further strengthening...?

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