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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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some terrible analysis, let the run play out if you don't have a firm grasp of this...even the best of the best don't have a firm grasp on this.  predicting a model solution, which is even further removed from predicting the weather, seems more ego based than analytical.  

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There's a pretty significant shift south at 120. This brings the GFS into even better consensus with the ECMWF and UKMET. It does appear that there is a slight turn left like what the UKMET shows after 120 and then a turn to the north before 168. There would definitely be a lot of lingering time in the Bahamas if model depiction becomes reality. You can also see Irma starting to interact with the trough by hour 144 and by hour 168 the cyclone is clearly tucked into the RER of an anticyclonically curved ULL jet streak so it should have a lot ULL divergence and a good outflow channel to support a deep cyclone. So far there is nothing I see with this 18Z run to make me think forecast confidence isn't above average at D5 lead times.

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2 minutes ago, andyhb said:

That's not eastern NC if we're talking potential coastal landfall locations.

That landfall is basically directly over Camp Lejune/ Jacksonville NC....then it tracks right up I 95 through eastern NC....this is MBY's worse possible outcome I would be in the immediate east side eyewall without getting the center...

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this run also doesn't cut hard inland but runs somewhat along the coast, bringing appreciable storminess up through delaware, and if it kicks NE as the run continues, would give some nasty weather through the nj/li/se NE corridor as large deep storms don't wind down too quickly especially with an increase in forward speed.  a slightly more eastern track maintaining the due north or nnw component could be much worse for many more places.

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Once she gets into central Virginia it looks like the pressure kicks up pretty quickly (showing 979 at 222 hours) and the 10m winds are basically a strong breeze. Still some tropical storm force indicated over the Chesapeake, but the winds inland are all under 35 kts. This run has a really weird look to it.

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