Major Hurricane Irma

[RevWarReenactor]

I remember Bertha well, that was no joke up in New Jersey. But on the other hand, the same year, Fran, which hit the same area and took more of an inland track (something the GFS seem to advertise with Irma), very little effects in the northeast.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, Floyd made landfall at Jones Beach on Long Island but as is typical with these systems, the highest rainfalls are to the west of the track and NJ and PA got hit rather hard.  It was still a 65 mph TS at our latitude but rainfall was the biggest issue.  Same with Bertha, which took a track from Wilmington to ACY to JFK.

The most interesting part of Floyd on Long Island was the strongest winds arriving from the WNW when the storm passed to our north. It took the strong CAA to finally mix down the strongest gusts.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

I remember Bertha well, that was no joke up in New Jersey. But on the other hand, the same year, Fran, which hit the same area and took more of an inland track (something the GFS seem to advertise with Irma), very little effects in the northeast.

Yeah, that's what Hugo did too.  We had some strong wind gusts in the NE but I don't remember any rain here when Hugo passed to the west of here.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The most interesting part of Floyd on Long Island was the strongest winds arriving from the WNW when the storm passed to our north. It took the strong CAA to finally mix down the strongest gusts.

That's right- I think we had the heaviest rains in the morning and those strong winds you were talking about much later in the afternoon.

[EasternLI]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Finally starting to see some convergence near NC on both the OP and EPS. We'll see how things go the next few days. Big banana high to the north on both also.

 

Looks like the GFS agree's with that. I raise an eyebrow whenever the Euro and GFS agree on something.

[Hurricane Agnes]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, Floyd made landfall at Jones Beach on Long Island but as is typical with these systems, the highest rainfalls are to the west of the track and NJ and PA got hit rather hard.  It was still a 65 mph TS at our latitude but rainfall was the biggest issue.  Same with Bertha, which took a track from Wilmington to ACY to JFK.

I remember finally being let out of work during Floyd (my office was near the Delaware River) and it took me 3 hours to get home, a mere 14 miles away - normally a 25 minute drive off peak and 40 minutes during rush hour.  Both river drives along the Schuylkill were flooded and impassable, as was anything running along the Wissahickon Creek (or any creek in the city for that matter).  I had a half barrel with some comets in it and had to keep bailing water out of it so the fish wouldn't go over the side, and wash away.

[Torchageddon]

2 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

The pressures modeled are nuts but the winds don't correspond. The pressure would be a beastly cat 5, the winds make it a high end 3/ low end 4... not that it still wouldn't be terrifying to have a strong3/low 4 LF there just thinking the low pressures are way overdone as others have mentioned.

If its sub-900 mb the swath of hurricane force winds and CAT3+ winds would be immense.


 

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

The 06z HMOM gets Irma down to the 880's in about 4 1/2 days. The HWRF is more modest with low 930's.


 

Just a few mb away from Hurricane Wilma at her peak. A pressure down to 885 mb in that part of the Atlantic basin would be ludicrous.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I remember finally being let out of work during Floyd (my office was near the Delaware River) and it took me 3 hours to get home, a mere 14 miles away - normally a 25 minute drive off peak and 40 minutes during rush hour.  Both river drives along the Schuylkill were flooded and impassable, as was anything running along the Wissahickon Creek (or any creek in the city for that matter).  I had a half barrel with some comets in it and had to keep bailing water out of it so the fish wouldn't go over the side, and wash away.

That storm was such a disaster, I remember people stranded on their roofs and the flood waters became contaminated from runoff from farms.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

If its sub-900 mb the swath of hurricane force winds and CAT3+ winds would be immense.
 



Just a few mb away from Hurricane Wilma at her peak. A pressure down to 885 mb in that part of the Atlantic basin would be ludicrous.

It would set new I.K.E. records, we haven't seen this combo of intensity and size before.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Looks like the GFS agree's with that. I raise an eyebrow whenever the Euro and GFS agree on something.

This is turning into a hurricane season of firsts. Harvey's record stall and historic rains and flooding. Irma is the first major of the reliable satellite era to dip WSW in that part of the far East Atlantic. It's that dip and no early recurve that put this into contention to impact the US.

 

[SACRUS]

Assume this still stands

Hurricane Hunters last plan

SUCCEEDING DAY (9/3)  OUTLOOK:
       A. BEGIN 6 HRLY FIX MISSIONS ON HURRICANE IRMA AT 04/1800Z
          NEAR 17.2N 52.5W.
       B. A G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND IRMA
          WITH TAKEOFF OF 04/1730Z.

[Eskimo Joe]

26 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I remember finally being let out of work during Floyd (my office was near the Delaware River) and it took me 3 hours to get home, a mere 14 miles away - normally a 25 minute drive off peak and 40 minutes during rush hour.  Both river drives along the Schuylkill were flooded and impassable, as was anything running along the Wissahickon Creek (or any creek in the city for that matter).  I had a half barrel with some comets in it and had to keep bailing water out of it so the fish wouldn't go over the side, and wash away.

I grew up in Manayunk and went to St. Josaphats school.  Floyd was the best flood event I've ever witnessed.  We got off school for rain.  Our basement was flooded out and it looking like snow it was raining for hard.  I loved every minute of it.

[mempho]

Landfall likely between what was formerly called the "Outer Banks" and "Wilmington" on this run. 

Yep, Outer Banks would probably disappear.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[ncskywarn]

4 minutes ago, mempho said:

Yep, Outer Banks would probably disappear.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

Or at the very least reshaped.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I'm becoming increasingly confident that we are NOT going to avoid a major US landfalling hurricane with Irma. Some of the deep pressures being depicted upon LF are downright alarming. I truly hope that FEMA and the federal govt are at least brainstorming contingency plans at this time. Has the US mainland ever had two major tropical catastrophes occur within 3 weeks of one another before in recorded history?

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm becoming increasingly confident that we are NOT going to avoid a major US landfalling hurricane with Irma. Some of the deep pressures being depicted upon LF are downright alarming. I truly hope that FEMA and the federal govt are at least brainstorming contingency plans at this time. Has the US mainland ever had two major tropical catastrophes occur within 3 weeks of one another before in recorded history?

Maybe it happened in either 2004 or 2005 (or both).

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm becoming increasingly confident that we are NOT going to avoid a major US landfalling hurricane with Irma. Some of the deep pressures being depicted upon LF are downright alarming. I truly hope that FEMA and the federal govt are at least brainstorming contingency plans at this time. Has the US mainland ever had two major tropical catastrophes occur within 3 weeks of one another before in recorded history?

Katrina, Rita, Wilma within a month

[toxictwister00]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm becoming increasingly confident that we are NOT going to avoid a major US landfalling hurricane with Irma. Some of the deep pressures being depicted upon LF are downright alarming. I truly hope that FEMA and the federal govt are at least brainstorming contingency plans at this time. Has the US mainland ever had two major tropical catastrophes occur within 3 weeks of one another before in recorded history?

Katrina and Rita comes to mind back in 2005.

[Hurricane Agnes]

12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm becoming increasingly confident that we are NOT going to avoid a major US landfalling hurricane with Irma. Some of the deep pressures being depicted upon LF are downright alarming. I truly hope that FEMA and the federal govt are at least brainstorming contingency plans at this time. Has the US mainland ever had two major tropical catastrophes occur within 3 weeks of one another before in recorded history?

You had poor Florida hit by 5 in 2004 (Bonnie, Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne) and I think 3 of them, coming from different directions, had passed through one spot (Charley, Frances, & Jeanne barreled through the Lakeland area)!

2005 had 28 systems where they kept coming all the way to December and had greek letter names.

[BxEngine]

There is a banter thread for this stuff. Please use this thread for discussion about Irma. 

[Sportybx]

On top of Irma if you follow the gfs at 300 + you will see something lurking .  It's a fish storm but can you imagine 2 in 2 weeks .... 

 

[cny rider]

With the trough interacting with Irma, how worried should we be about a PRE?
That's been the real disaster for us in upstate NY with prior systems.

 

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, cny rider said:

With the trough interacting with Irma, how worried should we be about a PRE?
That's been the real disaster for us in upstate NY with prior systems.

 

I'd be very concerned, however the GFS has backed off on this idea the last 3 cycles.

[rjtysinger]

In regards to size of storm, not strength , pressure or winds.  How big is this looking to be at closest approach or LF.  From my untrained naked eye based off models it seems to encompass SC,NC and VA in regards to imagery and not location.

[LakeEffectKing]

The consistent depiction of some really low pressure forecasts with Irma at leads of 6-10 days (from most global and now hurricane models) seems unprecedented.

 

 

 

 

[wawayanda]

The last 16 GFS runs - a steady trend westward:

 

[TriPol]

7 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

The consistent depiction of some really low pressure forecasts with Irma at leads of 6-10 days (from most global and now hurricane models) seems unprecedented.

 

 

 

 

 

A category 4 hurricane spinning offshore Florida heading up to the Carolinas is sure gonna get a lot of media attention.

[Z-Cast]

We've seen on multiple model runs now that the trough moving over US as Irma approaches is speeding up, which would potentially allow Irma to miss the interaction. This is significant because the trough at this moment is the only hope for an OTS Irma..and it appears that Harvey's exit is accelerating that trough.

Also, as Harvey exits- it's causing a sudden rebuild of the Bermuda high. That spells trouble and increases chances for EC LF.

Harvey is giving one last departing gift, it seems.

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, rjtysinger said:

In regards to size of storm, not strength , pressure or winds.  How big is this looking to be at closest approach or LF.  From my untrained naked eye based off models it seems to encompass SC,NC and VA in regards to imagery and not location.

It is going to be a large diameter hurricane as the poleward outflow increases.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=ir&runtime=2017090306&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=586

[Windspeed]

Irma's banding features came back strong last night. So much for my earlier thoughts that Irma might evolve into an annular donut. The moisture envelope around Irma looks pretty good now and what dry air exists in the mid levels to the north seems inconsequential or is moistening. There is a really nice band out in front of Irma that is firing out of that same environment.