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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=uv250&runtime=2017090300&fh=186&xpos=190&ypos=66

 

poleward exhaust in a right entrance region of the jet. Probably why it's showing the strengthening, albeit, / bit overdone (hopefully)


Yeah that's why it's getting a kick in rump as far as strengthening goes.
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I posted this in my forum. I thought I would put it here as well so more people can pick it apart.

This has my attention more than it usually would this far out because, except for the crazy low pressure, it makes sense.  Between Wilmington and Cape Lookout is where we get hit the most.  Usually, the storms ride up through the sounds behind the banks and exit near Duck and head off to the Northeast.  However, the synoptic setup clearly shows the block that will prevent that rightward arc and instead forces it west as it gains latitude. We have examples of that as well with Hugo and to a lesser extent Hazel and Floyd.  

 

 
 
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2 minutes ago, jburns said:

I posted this in my forum. I thought I would put it here as well so more people can pick it apart.

This has my attention more than it usually would this far out because, except for the crazy low pressure, it makes sense.  Between Wilmington and Cape Lookout is where we get hit the most.  Usually, the storms ride up through the sounds behind the banks and exit near Duck and head off to the Northeast.  However, the synoptic setup clearly shows the block that will prevent that rightward arc and instead forces it west as it gains latitude. We have examples of that as well with Hugo and to a lesser extent Hazel and Floyd.  

 

 
 

This could actually spare places like Philly/NYC if Irma makes landfall in SC/NC and keeps heading NNW/NW, but with such a large storm there is potential to see stormy conditions in the areas I mentioned as well.

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51 minutes ago, Morris said:

The point is that most model runs are duking it out where it will landfall, not whether.

The thing that makes landfall more of a possibility than it would normally be is the fact that there are a few different ways for landfall to occur.  This isn't your typical thread-the-needle scenario.

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4 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

One of the best met's in CLT...

 

Latest GFS run! Latest ECMWF keeps #Irma off shore. Use this to start thinking about your hurricane safety plans. GFS recently upgraded.

When he refers to the ECMWF I wonder if he means 0z or last afternoons 12z. I do know the euro is released past this hour and I'm also aware it is available earlier at the site. I'm assuming he is pointing to the latest run but I am not sure.

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3 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

When he refers to the ECMWF I wonder if he means 0z or last afternoons 12z. I do know the euro is released past this hour and I'm also aware it is available earlier at the site. I'm assuming he is pointing to the latest run but I am not sure.

ECMWF just initialized on TT

 

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When he refers to the ECMWF I wonder if he means 0z or last afternoons 12z. I do know the euro is released past this hour and I'm also aware it is available earlier at the site. I'm assuming he is pointing to the latest run but I am not sure.


He has not seen the overnight euro run yet.


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