BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: That'd be new for my area, eastern TN. Wildfires, floods, derecho, severe drought and then hurricane remnants. Lots can happen in a year. Same could be said here a little ways up the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, TriPol said: Don't usual major hurricanes that landfall on the East correlate with a full moon? Our moon will be full this Weds, so I don't see that happening. Please read more and post less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 43 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Does nobody else think this map is a little...."off"? Since when do TC's or remnants of them continue tracking NW all the way into the Plains? I've never seen anything like it. It's like the tropical Easterlies moved North to between 30N and 40N lol. Seriously though, is there an upper level mechanism on the GEFS so extreme to be causing these absurd tracks? It's pretty atypical, but something like it can occur. Normally they start recurving and don't just keep chugging northwest for so long after landfall, but there was the 1898 hurricane that was mentioned as an example. Another thing that is pretty wild is some of those GEFS members having pressures in the 980s all the way through the Ohio Valley. That may be overdone but even the EPS members that track it there are in the 990s. Hugo's pressure was in the 980s in Ohio so it is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Big trend SW today on the HWRF as well....18Z now hits the Anguilla and Saint Martin head on and gives PR at least TS conditions on the north side....upside Josh can go to Anguilla and get cored. 06Z run this morning was so far north PR was even in the image 18Z run from tonight RIP Saint Martin and Anguilla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Please read more and post less A simple no would suffice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 At 5 pm, Irma was centered at 18.5°N 44.6°W. Since 1851, 13 hurricanes passed within 100 nautical miles of that location. Three made U.S. landfall: 1. The "Sea Islands" Hurricane of 1893 (Category 3) in Georgia 2. The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 (Category 3) in New York (Long Island) and then 2nd landfall in Connecticut 3. Isabel in 2003 (Category 2) in North Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 0Z Tropical models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 At 5 pm, Irma was centered at 18.5°N 44.6°W. Since 1851, 13 hurricanes passed within 100 nautical miles of that location. Three made U.S. landfall: 1. The "Sea Islands" Hurricane of 1893 (Category 3) in Georgia 2. The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 (Category 3) in New York (Long Island) and then 2nd landfall in Connecticut 3. Isabel in 2003 (Category 2) in North Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: At 5 pm, Irma was centered at 18.5°N 44.6°W. Since 1851, 13 hurricanes passed within 100 nautical miles of that location. Three made U.S. landfall: 1. The "Sea Islands" Hurricane of 1893 (Category 3) in Georgia 2. The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 (Category 3) in New York (Long Island) and then 2nd landfall in Connecticut 3. Isabel in 2003 (Category 2) in North Carolina What about Hurricane Hugo? That was a cat 4 that went straight into South Carolina back in 1989? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 27 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: That'd be new for my area, eastern TN. Wildfires, floods, derecho, severe drought and then hurricane remnants. Lots can happen in a year. Total solar eclipse, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Storm seems to be undergoing yet another ERC, meanwhile a burst of heavy convection on the east side which started a few hours ago seems to be attempting to mix in and grow the CDO. And another burst of convection on the south side. It has a pretty messy presentation right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, kpantz said: Total solar eclipse, too. Can't forget that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: What about Hurricane Hugo? That was a cat 4 that went straight into South Carolina back in 1989? Hugo didn't pass within 100 nautical miles of Irma's 5 pm position. Landfall within the vicinity of where Hugo made landfall is very much a possibility, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Hugo didn't pass within 100 nautical miles of Irma's 5 pm position. Landfall within the vicinity of where Hugo made landfall is very much a possibility, though. Gotcha, the models have this storm tracking like Isabel but on steroids. In the end, when these storms turn north they lose a lot of their strength. Isabel was 70-75 MPH Gusts here. Irene was 60-65 MPH gusts. Irma is going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: A simple no would suffice. Nobody asked you Coach 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 0Z Tropical models Tightly clustered until hr 96ish, interesting week ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Bold Prediction: Irma will hurt whatever it touches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: Gotcha, the models have this storm tracking like Isabel but on steroids. In the end, when these storms turn north they lose a lot of their strength. Isabel was 70-75 MPH Gusts here. Irene was 60-65 MPH gusts. Irma is going to be interesting. It will definitely be interesting. Some of the guidance is extraordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freshgeek Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Bold Prediction: Irma will hurt whatever it touches. Bringing the hot take, I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Bold Prediction: Irma will hurt whatever it touches. Assuming it does touch something that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 21 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 0Z Tropical models My money's on the TABD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It will definitely be interesting. Some of the guidance is extraordinary. Chuck thinks it will go out to sea. My buddy Mark and I and are going to ride it out at my house on Mill Creek in Hampton, VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 At 5 pm, Irma was centered at 18.5°N 44.6°W. Since 1851, 13 hurricanes passed within 100 nautical miles of that location. Three made U.S. landfall: 1. The "Sea Islands" Hurricane of 1893 (Category 3) in Georgia 2. The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 (Category 3) in New York (Long Island) and then 2nd landfall in Connecticut 3. Isabel in 2003 (Category 2) in North Carolina I love these types of statistics Don. Keep up the good work!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: Chuck thinks it will go out to sea. My buddy Mark and I and are going to ride it out at my house on Mill Creek in Hampton, VA. There's still a good deal of uncertainty, but out-to-sea is far from assured. Good luck riding it out should it make landfall near your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: My money's on the TABD. Wackiest track I've ever seen. Should be banished from spaghetti model land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 If that track were to verify, even Philly would flood, with surge coming up Del Bay and River wonder how far over the banks the river will flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 55 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: That'd be new for my area, eastern TN. Wildfires, floods, derecho, severe drought and then hurricane remnants. Lots can happen in a year. Forgot Eclipse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: There's still a good deal of uncertainty, but out-to-sea is far from assured. Good luck riding it out should it make landfall near your area. It could also turn extratropical such as Irene up in the mid-latitudes and still pack one heck of a punch with an expanded wind field. Like you said an interesting one to track thru it's travels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: There's still a good deal of uncertainty, but out-to-sea is far from assured. Good luck riding it out should it make landfall near your area. Thanks, you're welcome to come by. 109 Wilson Lane, Hampton, VA. Irene never came above the seawall. It was only 6.5ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: Thanks, you're welcome to come by. 109 Wilson Lane, Hampton, VA. Irene never came above the seawall. It was only 6.5ft. Thanks. My five-year-old and I will likely watch the storm from afar. He's already had some exposure to the computer models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Thanks. My five-year-old and I will likely watch the storm from afar. He's already had some exposure to the computer models. From "afar". Wishful thinking Don! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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