Major Hurricane Irma

[MattPetrulli]

7 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Looking to have a ride up the Chesapeake 

bingo

[Wow]

GFS trend in past 4 runs.. from Quebec to OBX at 201hrs.  lol 

[BlueDXer75]

2 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

Outer Banks are in for a pounding this time around.

Yeah, 919 over Kitty Hawk...

[MattPetrulli]

18z GFS creates another meaning for 9/11

[Random Chaos]

933mb off the Rappahannock river, centered on the Chesapeake. Hope we get some big shifts tomorrow away from the bay.

[hlcater]

1 minute ago, Random Chaos said:

933mb off the Rappahannock river, centered on the Chesapeake. Hope we get some big shifts tomorrow away from the bay.

With a windfield like that, gonna be some hefty surges up into the Chesapeake and surrounding bays if this hurricane comes in like that.

[Jim Marusak]

2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

18z GFS creates another meaning for 9/11

I hope this is just the gridded quadrillion step math problem we run going nuts. I really do. because I don't necessarily like the trend the GFS is setting.

[bdgwx]

144-168 is clearly when the interesting stuff begins happening. You can see Irma getting captured and tucked nicely into the right rear entrance region of the ULL jet streak. That jet streak begins shaping into anticyclonic curvature at hour 168. The outflow and venting is highly favorable for a deep cyclone at this point. 878mb is almost certainly overdone, but the pattern taken with the SSTs in this region easily supports lower 900's in my opinion. I really don't want to speculate too much about what happens after D7, but verbatim that pattern definitely supports a left hook Sandy-style. It's really easy to see why that would happen if you look at the 250mb charts. I'm very skeptical though because we're still at D7+ lead times and the track is going to be very sensitive to the interactions taking place place at this time.

[hlcater]

3 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

144-168 is clearly when the interesting stuff begins happening. You can see Irma getting captured and tucked nicely into the right rear entrance region of the ULL jet streak. That jet streak begins shaping into anticyclonic curvature at hour 168. The outflow and venting is highly favorable for a deep cyclone at this point. 878mb is almost certainly overdone, but the pattern taken with the SSTs in this region easily supports lower 900's in my opinion. I really don't want to speculate too much about what happens after D7, but that pattern definitely supports a left hook Sandy-style. It's really easy to see why that would happen if you look at the 250mb charts. I'm still very skeptical because we're still at D7+ lead times and the track is going to be very sensitive to the interactions taking place place at this time.

Complete vacuum cleaner 

[Rtd208]

Out of all seriousness these GFS runs are downright scary, I mean up the mouth of Chessy Bay?, unchartered territory for sure and would affect a very large area and alot of people.

[Coach McGuirk]

Well, nice knowing yah!

[Wow]

11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Out of all seriousness these GFS runs are downright scary, I mean up the mouth of Chessy Bay?, unchartered territory for sure and would affect a very large area and alot of people.

Right, and climo says it's very unlikely to happen.  We are several days to just figuring it out first.  Might end up in the GOM still.. That could kinda be hilarious.

[bdgwx]

The trough is punching through IL at hr 96 on both the GFS and Euro with 500mb heights at 564. Using the SPC's sounding climatology and CIPS analog guidance as tool it appears that while this is far from unprecedented it is still a pretty potent trough for early September. CIPS has several analogs of 564 troughs digging into IL.

[salbers]

28 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Am I reading it right that the energy for that trough is already over Alaska/western Canada today?

Indeed, looks like it was off the B.C. coast at 12z this morning.

[Jim Marusak]

5 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

144-168 is clearly when the interesting stuff begins happening. You can see Irma getting captured and tucked nicely into the right rear entrance region of the ULL jet streak. That jet streak begins shaping into anticyclonic curvature at hour 168. The outflow and venting is highly favorable for a deep cyclone at this point. 878mb is almost certainly overdone, but the pattern taken with the SSTs in this region easily supports lower 900's in my opinion. I really don't want to speculate too much about what happens after D7, but that pattern definitely supports a left hook Sandy-style. It's really easy to see why that would happen if you look at the 250mb charts. I'm still very skeptical because we're still at D7+ lead times and the track is going to be very sensitive to the interactions taking place place at this time.

in other words, when Irma gets to the central Bahamas, that's when we should know which way she turns as that seems to be the common inflection point. but yea, that 878 that's I think record territory for the Atlantic Basin and I do not think Irma heads there. 910-920, I agree I think we would see that, given what we're seeing so far. But that jet pattern, having momma nature bowl right-handed instead of normally left-handed again and put it into an almost Hazle-like position? i'm not sure how much I believe it, despite Sandy a couple of years ago. Those type of interactions just do not usually like to happen often. It almost feels like it should be more heading to Long Island and New England, not up the Chesapeake and flooding Delaware Bay as well as Philly from the surge.

 

[Random Chaos]

Just now, salbers said:

Looks like it was off the B.C. coast at 12z this morning.

That means models should start getting better in regards tomthat trough - now that it is onshore/about to be, we get good obs to feed the models.

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, Wow said:

Right, and climo says it's very unlikely to happen.  We are several days to just figuring it out first.  Might end up in the GOM still.. That could kinda be hilarious.

Anything is possible and there is always a first time for everything but I am a bit skeptical at this range, if this was 3-4 days from now I would probably start sounding the alert.

[Newman]

What is the strongest East Coast landfall in terms of pressure by a tropical system? Just wondering cause most models have it sub 950 or 940 when nearing the coast....

[salbers]

11 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

That means models should start getting better in regards tomthat trough - now that it is onshore/about to be, we get good obs to feed the models.

And here it is off the B.C. coast. A larger system is to its west.

[Vice-Regent]

2 minutes ago, Newman said:

What is the strongest East Coast landfall in terms of pressure by a tropical system? Just wondering cause most models have it sub 950 or 940 when nearing the coast....

That would be Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 if you consider South Fl to be East Coast. 892mb.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane

[bigtenfan]

While nothing can be ruled out completely at this stage of the game it does look like the GOM and to a lesser extent S Fl are very  unlikely.

[TriPol]

I don't buy that sharp turn West from going North. Likely going to be LF higher around NJ.

[SnowLover22]

When should we expect the ensembles.

[NJwx85]

18z GEFS mean is near Charleston with many members landfalling in the mid Atlantic 

[NJwx85]

Looks like very few if any 18 GEFS members miss the East coast.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Kind of ridiculous, these model runs. The Atlantic ridge is not nearly strong enough to put this inland, and weird things happen, like around hr100 the east coast trough just stall for a few frames. This is either going into the Caribbean or out to sea. Historically, to have an East coast hit, you need a big 500mb ridge anomaly northeast of Maine and over New Foundland. A 594+dm ridge in the Atlantic. Not really close. The 500mb pattern projection on models favors a recurvating storm, but it could go through the Caribbean. I would say like 5% chance it hits north of Florida. 

[BlunderStorm]

With the GEFS mean by Charleston, I wonder what the possibilities are of a Georgia Landfall.

[Random Chaos]

9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Looks like very few if any 18 GEFS members miss the East coast.

Looks like every member makes landfall betweeb Miami and Boston.

[Buddy1987]

7 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Kind of ridiculous, these model runs. The Atlantic ridge is not nearly strong enough to put this inland, and weird things happen, like around hr100 the east coast trough just stall for a few frames. This is either going into the Caribbean or out to sea. Historically, to have an East coast hit, you need a big 500mb ridge anomaly northeast of Maine and over New Foundland. A 600dm ridge in the Atlantic. Not really close. The 500mb pattern projection on models favors a recurvating storm, but the closer term events give it a good chance to go through the Caribbean. I would say like 5% chance it hits north of Florida. 

Wow, I understand the physics portion and what not behind your reasoning and thinking but 5% probability is pretty ballsy this far out. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

2 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Looks like every member makes landfall betweeb Miami and Boston.

Can you post? I believe the 12z did too. Will be interesting to see if the Euro moves towards the GFS or vice versa at 00z. GFS has held serv for a couple runs in a row while the Euro is all over the place however I think it's still so early that neither models will be correct as of right now.