Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Really comes down to the trough between the WAR and western US ridge. If it's going to close off, it's going to make a big difference where that ULL travels and when it captures the storm. Still way too early so it just comes down to waiting until we have some consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 The 12Z OP Euro caved to the 0z EPS more easterly cluster this run. We probably need a while more to know how the trough details and interaction with Irma plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, TPAwx said: That a great run for the US. Enthusiasts get to see a massive cat 4/5 evolve with plenty of pretty Goes 16 imagery, and the rest of us are happy as there is low material impact, other than the significant wave action and rip tides, the inevitable rando being swept out to sea whilst surfing, and the retired couple on their sailboat that go missing beause they weren't paying attention, with eventual Coast Guard chopper footage of floating debris. I think you're unaware of how many people die from rip tides, it's a huge problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 We have model consensus! Oh wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Z-Cast said: Except the 12z GFS began to cave towards the 00z Euro trough solution..maybe it's just a day behind? Complete guess work this far out, imo. everything is confused at this point, I wouldn't be leaning to any model atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I think people need to take a step back here and realize that this is still a week away from any type of impact on the US mainland and that focusing on LF points is beyond futile at this range. Even apparent consensuses among models regarding track at this range potentially would be really misleading given the lead time (i.e., they can appear to "converge" on a solution that ends up woefully wrong in the end). Climo still carries a great deal of weight despite the modeled anomalous pattern--though perhaps climo is slightly less weighty than usual given the current WSW movement--and it favors OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 The EPS may not end up even being close to any hits at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, Eduardo said: I think people need to take a step back here and realize that this is still a week away from any type of impact on the US mainland and that focusing on LF points is beyond futile at this range. Even apparent consensuses among models regarding track at this range potentially would be really misleading given the lead time (i.e., they can appear to "converge" on a solution that ends up woefully wrong in the end). Climo still carries a great deal of weight despite the modeled anomalous pattern--though perhaps climo is slightly less weighty than usual given the current WSW movement--and it favors OTS. Doesn't climo favor OTS for all Cape Verde hurricanes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, wkd said: Doesn't climo favor OTS for all Cape Verde hurricanes? Precisely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, Wow said: It looks like the EPS has more of a trough split than the OP. So some of the members are drawn further west due to the upper low placement over the Tennessee Valley. That kind of a trough interaction is very tricky to forecast this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Precisely! So we should start with the assumption that it will be OTS and look for factors that may result in a different outcome such as a blocking ridge or capture. Climo contains no physics, it is merely an average of an event over a period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Irma is starting to take on characteristics that will lead to an annular hurricane. Banding features are becoming less pronounced or dissipating. There is clearly cloud debris and convection breaking down from the old inner eye. I think we'll be tracking an intense donut by Monday if not tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Irma is starting to take on characteristics that will lead to an annular hurricane. Banding features are becoming less pronounced or dissipating. There is clearly cloud debris and convection breaking down from the old inner eye. I think we'll be tracking an intense donut by Monday if not tomorrow. Probably will get there after a few more ERC's. Should be a decent size cane in 72hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 just like winter with the gfs showing some monster event and then Dr. No saying....not so much like that Mr. Gfs my forecast....track se 40/70 benchmark...worst effects in the same places that get all the snow in the winter, big swells screws up fishing for awhile but no one looses life or limb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 EPS is about half and half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: It looks like the EPS has more of a trough split than the OP. So some of the members are drawn further west due to the upper low placement over the Tennessee Valley. That kind of a trough interaction is very tricky to forecast this far out. That's correct. If it's going to cut off, knowing the exact (or even the approximate) location of the ULL matters greatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Lots of warm water for Irma to feed off of over the next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: just like winter with the gfs showing some monster event and then Dr. No saying....not so much like that Mr. Gfs my forecast....track se 40/70 benchmark...worst effects in the same places that get all the snow in the winter, big swells screws up fishing for awhile but no one looses life or limb Problem is that the Euro has not maintained continuity with landfall/location. What's your call if tonight's 00z run goes back toward the 00z from last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 There's actually pretty decent consensus between the 12Z models (EPS, GEFS, GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET) at hour 120 putting Irma just north of Puerto Rico. Even at hour 168 the spread between the EPS and GEFS means isn't out of the ordinary. I think there's enough run-to-run and model-to-model consensus that we can say Irma is going to head into the Bahamas with average (and maybe even slightly above average) confidence. I've also been watching verification stats with Irma. The OFCL forecast is adding skill to IVCx. COAMPS has been consistently pulling IVCx too far north so the NHC's southern bias has paid off. The NHC's intensity forecasts have been mostly on par with IVCx so there's not much added skill there. Overall the NHC has been doing pretty good so far. Their current 120 hour forecast is pretty close to the consensus mean of the EPS and GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Problem is that the Euro has not maintained continuity with landfall/location. What's your call if tonight's 00z run goes back toward the 00z from last night? Right.... love these folks that are so sure whats going to happen, if anything the crystal ball is getting cloudier as the ens spread for all models is getting wider. The models probably wont even be that reliable for north of the Bahamas till Mon into Tues ( hopefully) and the earliest we would see a landfall would be next Sundayish if the CMC/GFS timing and a SC/NC landfall occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 14 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: just like winter with the gfs showing some monster event and then Dr. No saying....not so much like that Mr. Gfs my forecast....track se 40/70 benchmark...worst effects in the same places that get all the snow in the winter, big swells screws up fishing for awhile but no one looses life or limb 9 days out and calling it ots? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, Wow said: That's correct. If it's going to cut off, knowing the exact (or even the approximate) location of the ULL matters greatly. You can even see on the OP sim sat that IRMA is interacting with a smaller piece of the trough over the East as the hurricane moves by to the East. So a stronger split off piece of energy and a more western track would have a greater interaction than the OP is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 12z JMA has Irma sitting near KPBI at 192hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Is Irma back up to 115 mph at the 5 PM advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 51 minutes ago, wkd said: So we should start with the assumption that it will be OTS and look for factors that may result in a different outcome such as a blocking ridge or capture. Climo contains no physics, it is merely an average of an event over a period of time. Granted I am hardly a pro, but I think that's a wise approach, yes. My main point was that any appearance of model agreement on an outcome 7-days out has a huge potential of being an illusion amidst chaos. I feel like, over the years, people's thirst for model porn has become unquenchable, and they've lost touch with their main purpose, which is to provide guidance. Bona fide forecasting involves so much more than just: "Yeah it's 8 days out, Model A says x and Model B says y....I lean towards Model A because [insert weenie justification]." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: I'm driving smart*** lol 5pm update: 110 mph/973 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, Paragon said: Is Irma back up to 115 mph at the 5 PM advisory? Still 110 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Strong model agreement to disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Storms hundreds of years ago where more frequent in mid Atlantic and northeast. It's a pattern. Maybe entering into a repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.