NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Irma turns North between hours 168-174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The pattern is anomalous now, what normal major hurricane turns WSW in the middle of the Atlantic. Climo says Irma should be going NW right now. What happens now wrt an "anomalous pattern", does not influence climo 8 days from now....plenty of canes have entered the NE Carribean (as depicted by many models, no matter how they get there).....the synoptic setup, as modeled, is very uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Still zero consistency with the handling of the trough... earlier runs had inland cutoff, last night intact trough quickly lifts out, now back to cutoff, except it's now over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Looks like a capture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 It's actually moving NNE here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Moving N at 180 hrs east of the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Capture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 It's going fishing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Looks like a fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 NNE at 192 hrs further east like 0z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Big cave to GFS, regardless of Final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Irma turns North between hours 168-174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: It's going fishing... It's captured. It's going to retrograde west somewhere on east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 If the euro makes the turn earlier a la GFS down by Bahamas, that gets caught up in that upper level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, ag3 said: It's captured. It's going to retrograde west somewhere on east coast. I don't think so, it's hauling Northeast now following the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 34 minutes ago, csnavywx said: It will weaken however, the speed with which it does so depends on several factors: 1) The size of the storm. The bigger and stronger the vortex, the more inertial stability it has and the longer it takes to spin down. 2) Forward speed. Faster speed gives it less time to weaken and adds the movement component to the wind speed on the right flank, keeping winds up on those quadrants. 3) Baroclinic/jet enhancement, if any. Some baroclinic (frontal) and/or jet enhancement via divergence aloft and/or enhancement of outflow can slow the weakening process. Thank you very much for your detailed response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: It's captured. It's going to retrograde west somewhere on east coast. No. The trough axis is well out to sea. It'll move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 The position of the trough is so far east on the Euro that it doesn't get pulled west but rather follows it NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Euro is slower than the GFS to move out the trough/rebuild the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Big cave to GFS, regardless of Final outcome. What? It's nowhere close to the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said: What? It's nowhere close to the GFS... Look at the development of the trough and the wave pattern. It definitely caved towards GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Euro is slower than the GFS to move out the trough/rebuild the ridge. Exact opposite of the 00z ECMWF op which ejected the trough out much faster and built heights overhead. Flippity flip. Still too early... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Euro is slower than the GFS to move out the trough/rebuild the ridge. I know the times are different, but done to show when Irma is at comparable latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 We have seen how flippy the ECM has been with storm tracks the last couple winters beyond day 5 long way to go to narrow down if it's a fish or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Look at the development of the trough and the wave pattern. It definitely caved towards GFS. It seems that a lot of the 12z models have been coming to the overall pattern the GFS showed... still got ways to go, but still interesting that there are greater similarities to the GFS now (even if not guaranteeing the same end result) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Looks like the Euro OP caved to its own ensembles from the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Maybe the the ol' classic few-day-out flip-flop from the Euro, where it messes around for a little bit before realizing it was correct earlier. note: this is tongue-in-cheek and no way represents my actual opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 That a great run for the US. Enthusiasts get to see a massive cat 4/5 evolve with plenty of pretty Goes 16 imagery, and the rest of us are happy as there is low material impact, other than the significant wave action and rip tides, the inevitable rando being swept out to sea whilst surfing, and the retired couple on their sailboat that go missing beause they weren't paying attention, with eventual Coast Guard chopper footage of floating debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Even the Euro track would be kind of fun. Some minor winds, heavy surf, beach erosion, maybe some of the outer precip making its way into a few areas, and of course media hype. I'd rather not have major damage in this area. It wouldn't be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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