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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That was a much more stable pattern at day 7-10 than this is.  I would be amazed if this was locked Monday or Tuesday at this point. The pattern is just a total mess both over the US and WATL 

Yeah, almost no chance that wave break/RWT over the CONUS is being modeled correctly atm. There's a good reason there's a huge spread after D6/D7 right now.

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5 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

Does it make me a bad person? I mean when thinking of the losses caused due to the event that I could not control I cannot help but feel guilty when it does come over. Today for example the remnants of Harvey swept through my area giving some rather pleasant wind gusts with some refreshing rainfall. I do sincerely apologize if I have angered you.

Humans are wired to look for novelty. This article does a good job about why many of us are attracted to extreme weather events http://www.alternet.org/environment/why-we-love-storms

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54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Second summer in a row with the near to record breaking ridge W and SW of Spain. Seems to be part of a couplet producing the deep vortex and SST cold pool S and SE Of Greenland. Without this ridge inducing the WSW motion, Irma would recurve somewhere north of Hispaniola or Puerto Rico. The EA has been in record positive territory recently.

ea.timeseries.gif.e5ea4515f21af66be38f546873c4b556.gif

 

 

 

 

Part of that is also likely a weakening of the SPG (sub-polar gyre). There's some evidence that's part of a long term change/trend. A good portion of the higher skill climate models continue to weaken the SPG in the future and a significant cluster of those suggest instability and local convection collapse -- which would definitely exacerbate that trend. There was a paper on this recently. I'll dig it up.

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7 hours ago, SN_Lover said:

Who is getting fished? I see no hands raised. But when you say a run is wrong without any backup evidence it kinda makes you look silly. FYI. 

He's technically right. It's an entirely different story to say that a storm wouldn't behave the way it did vs. a cat 5 making landfall at a high lattitude. Yes, one should never talk in absolutes. Perhaps "almost impossible" or "highly unlikely" would have been better words. But I think we all know what he was trying to say. It is likely that the pressures on the models are way overdone that far north.

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2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Part of that is also likely a weakening of the SPG (sub-polar gyre). There's some evidence that's part of a long term change/trend. A good portion of the higher skill climate models continue to weaken the SPG in the future and a significant cluster of those suggest instability and local convection collapse -- which would definitely exacerbate that trend. There was a paper on this recently. I'll dig it up.

This pattern seems to really have become pronounced following the record summer 2012 melt. 

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UKMET models have been remarkably consistent (least error and bias) with IRMA track and intensity compared to other global models.
I'm going to be watching http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/storm-tracker/#?tab=map&stormId=11L&stormName=IRMA
and comparing closely with ECMF and AVNO(GFS) until 3 days out.  My bet is UKM will stay consistent.
 

Screen Shot 2017-09-02 at 10.44.51 AM.png

Screen Shot 2017-09-02 at 10.52.00 AM.png

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4 hours ago, Jtm12180 said:

I get it. Living 3-4 miles from the coast in Myrtle Beach, some of these models aren't what I want to see.

 

On the the other hand, my complete fascination by them after seeing what Hugo did as an 8 year old, I can't help but want to experience the power of one. But priorities change and doing crazy things like storm chasing or "riding out" a cat 4 go to the back burner when you have a family. When I was single I would've in a heartbeat! 

 Not to worry.  The urge and opportunity return when the kids are grown.

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3 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Considerable difference in how the eps and the gefs handle the northern trough.  If the eps verifies...a strike north of the virginia capes is basically impossible since the war has been knocked back.  The gefs of course offers keeps all east coast solutions in play. 

 

eps_z500a_noram_31.png

gefs_z500a_noram_31.png

Excellent post.

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