Major Hurricane Irma

[Hoosier]

Come on guys, don't get hung up on the pressure on the GFS.  The bias is to overdeepen and it would be just a bit absurd to get a storm that deep in that landfall location.

 

[CamSE-Wx]

In terms of time, the Euro should give us landfall somewhere with this new model run at 2

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

Perhaps, in the worst case scenario the weakening system could maintain it's pressure rather temporarily while lying over the warm water, I doubt it would ever strengthen though. My knowledge though is of course greatly limited. This almost assuredly won't happen anyway.

Favorable baroclinic interaction can strengthen systems over land, and I'd say that is more important than lake water temps.  Not saying it will happen in this case.

[jburns]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Come on guys, don't get hung up on the pressure on the GFS.  The bias is to overdeepen and it would be just a bit absurd to get a storm that deep in that landfall location.

 

Yeah. The next thing you know some damn model will be printing out 50" of rain.  Ridiculous.

[TellicoWx]

Also that window shrinks smaller time frame wise due to having to recall these regions disaster response teams, getting them some small downtime, and resupplied due to Harvey.

[Windspeed]

Come on guys, don't get hung up on the pressure on the GFS.  The bias is to overdeepen and it would be just a bit absurd to get a storm that deep in that landfall location.

 

 

 

Ding ding ding ding ding...

 

Not downplaying a strong system but the GFS is on crack with sub 920 mb pressures that far north. Just look at the 250mb level. It doesn't even make sense. It's the same thing it had been doing to high latitude WPAC cyclones. NOAA/NCEP has to get that corrected.

 

[Mountain_Patch]

jfc 

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, jburns said:

Yeah. The next thing you know some damn model will be printing out 50" of rain.  Ridiculous.

50" of rain was probably a hell of a lot more likely than 925 mb bearing down on Maryland lol

[jojo762]

1 minute ago, jburns said:

Yeah. The next thing you know some damn model will be printing out 50" of rain.  Ridiculous.

+1000000000 

[Mountain_Patch]

These models better be wrong.

[Coach McGuirk]

12 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

forward speed combined with wind = catastrophic. 

 

Holy ****!  That's crazy.

[jburns]

Just now, Hoosier said:

50" of rain was probably a hell of a lot more likely than 925 mb bearing down on Maryland lol

Yeah.  I agree. Still, my 50" comment would have been viewed totally differently 2 weeks ago.

[Mountain_Patch]

[lilj4425]

4 minutes ago, jburns said:

Yeah. The next thing you know some damn model will be printing out 50" of rain.  Ridiculous.

Pshhh...that would never happen. Only fantasy.

[Rtd208]

Without getting to hung up on the eventual track and intensity of Irma, I would be more worried about the PRE that the GFS is showing right now.

[Treckasec]

Let's not get too worried with the cat 4/cat 5 maps. While the GFS did portray a hurricane, using instantweathermaps it seemed that maximum winds at landfall were high end cat 2/ low end cat 3. Even so, we shouldn't expect this solution to play out when we are still whiles away until we can start figuring out the trough situation with greater accuracy. This is one solution 8-9 days out... crazy to look at, but it's unwise to take it with anything larger than a grain of salt.

[TellicoWx]

I'm thinking somewhere between the Delmarva and Savannah, and hoping by some chance it goes ots...disaster response teams, Red Cross, FEMA, etc are already too stressed.

[Windspeed]

This, I don't even think that is synoptically possible. 

There would simply be way too much shear in that upper environment to sustain an organized eyewall to keep pressures that low. The GFS is way overkill at that latitude and it's too obvious. Just focus on the locations for trends on these runs and try not to have a cow with the absurd surface pressures at that latitude. That's all I'm saying.

[SN_Lover]

6 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

There isn't going to be a cat 5 landfall above NC.  Not going to happen.

Be very careful with absolutes here. I can dig up the sandy thread where people said sandy would never happen and it happened.  

[TriPol]

12 minutes ago, jburns said:

Yeah. The next thing you know some damn model will be printing out 50" of rain.  Ridiculous.

I think new laws of physics apply because of the new climate we're living in. It's now possible to get a storm of that magnitude all the way up here and for Houston to get 50"of rain in one week. Scary.

[Mountain_Patch]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

I think new laws of physics apply because of the new climate we're living in. It's now possible to get a storm of that magnitude all the way up here and for Houston to get 50"of rain in one week. Scary.

Unless co2 is changing the ocean currents you good.

[Subtropics]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I think new laws of physics apply because of the new climate we're living in. It's now possible to get a storm of that magnitude all the way up here and for Houston to get 50"of rain in one week. Scary.

Atlantic is on fire - again. Seems like every year the waters in the mid atlantic flirt with 80 degrees. Keep in mind the 30 year historical average for late summer (was) around 70 for ocean city maryland, and we've smoked that consistently since 2010 on the order of 5-10 degrees above the average for most of the summer.

[Mountain_Patch]

2 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

Atlantic is on fire - again. Seems like every year the waters in the mid atlantic flirt with 80 degrees. Keep in mind the 30 year historical average for late summer (was) around 70 for ocean city maryland, and we've smoked that consistently since 2010 on the order of 5-10 degrees above the average for most of the summer.

You're currently at 70.5

[40/70 Benchmark]

Some please post the GEFS mean?

[TPAwx]

2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Be very careful with absolutes here. I can dig up the sandy thread where people said sandy would never happen and it happened.  

That's an odd take, but sure if that makes you feel good.

Anyway, there will not be a cat 5 landfall in VA or north.  GFS op outside of 96-120 hours has limited utility.  EPS is really the only thing that should be looked at with any believability at this range, and it's still pushing it since it's still 150h+.

[WXEnthusiast]

Will post full picture in a minute but definitely more North  

[Subtropics]

3 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

You're currently at 70.5

It's 1am and it was in the 60s air temp today. That's not representative at all. Look at August's day time temps. We hit nearly 85 10 days ago, which is crazy. Almost the whole month above 75 during the day. That didn't used to happen.

If anything, the fact it is still above average after a day this chilly and it being after midnight is not a good sign.

[yoda]

Just now, Snow88 said:

GEFS

 

Last nights.. check the stamp

[SN_Lover]

2 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

That's an odd take, but sure if that makes you feel good.

Anyway, there will not be a cat 5 landfall in VA or north.  GFS op outside of 96-120 hours has limited utility.  EPS is really the only thing that should be looked at with any believability at this range, and it's still pushing it since it's still 150h+.

Not a odd take, to make a absolute statement like that is IMO reckless. But carry on...

[TriPol]

Sandy, I believe, had this problem in the long and medium range. The EURO and the GFS kept fighting over if Sandy would go OTS or get captured. If it got captured, where would it land? A lot of runs said Boston, some said Rhode Island, others said Virginia. In actuality, it made landfall near Atlantic City.

This run of the GFS has Irma about 100 miles or so South of where it was 18z in the Carribean. Ocean City is about 100 miles south of where the final solution was at 18z, which was nearly identical to Sandy. These models are going to wobble some more and I wouldn't be surprised to see some pointing a hit at either RI or MA. If there's a capture/phase, where does it happen and when does it happen?