Mountain_Patch Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said: How surge prone is Chesapeake? https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/MidAtlSurge.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 6-8" of rain in NYC just from the PRE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 This looks like a NJ/ NYC strike incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 198 looks like an OC mauling incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 LF near Ocean City, MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/MidAtlSurge.asp Woah, Cat 4 puts the city of Norfolk completely under water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: This looks like a NJ/ NYC strike incoming I was thinking RI, but the trough does look to be phasing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 918 is still a Category 5. This would be a complete disaster. I hope it does not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 LF Ocean City,MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I thought it was going to come in way south of that based on where it looked at Day 6. I wouldn't be surprised if ensembles are down the coast again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Looks like Delmarva Peninsula pounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 It definitely got captured. Thing is headed to Buffalo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, TriPol said: 918 is still a Category 5. This would be a complete disaster. I hope it does not happen. Would end the sandy talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Haha, that'd be wild here! One of many solutions, these are exciting model runs, but not the final solution. I wonder if GEFS is going to be any close to the control run, or if it'll continue in the path like last time. Still many options on the table, this is just one of the bad ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 And we've struck Philly... add that to the list along with D.C., Baltimore, New York, and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 The flooding and storm surge would be a disaster because this strikes south of NYC, south of NJ, we would get the same kind of impacts that Sandy gave us from flooding. It would literally destroy the NYC subway system which is STILL recovering from Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, TriPol said: 918 is still a Category 5. This would be a complete disaster. I hope it does not happen. On this specific run, it seems to landfall as a cat 2 or high-end cat 1, coming towards the coast as a cat 3? Surface pressure's are likely misleading. Regardless, solution would be pretty bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Cat 5 landfalling in OCMD? Guess my beach house is gone! In 24 hours we have managed to have direct hits in DC, Philly, NYC and Boston. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 If you're going to focus on 200 hrs out at a landfall point, at least focus on trend of location and NOT intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 I know it seems a long way off but the increased speed puts the PRE onshore in less than five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Can it regenerate somewhat in the Great Lakes? Never seen a storm do that before. Odd solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 forward speed combined with wind = catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Windspeed said: If you're going to focus on 200 hrs out at a landfall point, at least focus on trend of location and NOT intensity. Yeah the west trend is pretty obvious by this time tomorrow it will be a GA/SC border landfall lol.....the bad news is the trend today has been away from a OTS solution and more towards a eventual landfall....luckily we have 10 days to go and much will hopefully change....this isnt something anyone on the EC should want to deal with there is no reason to expect this thing to be some ragged Cat 2 coming up the coast, all models indicate a large well formed monster Cat 3/4 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, TriPol said: Can it regenerate somewhat in the Great Lakes? Never seen a storm do that before. Odd solution. Perhaps, in the worst case scenario the weakening system could maintain it's pressure rather temporarily while lying over the warm water, I doubt it would ever strengthen though. My knowledge though is of course greatly limited. This almost assuredly won't happen anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Irma isn't fast enough for the trough and is booted out on the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 CMC is just offshore but massive https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017090200&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=456 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Goalposts continue to shrink. Realistically between Cape Cod (perhaps east of the cape in case it still goes more OTS), and central Florida now imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: Yeah the west trend is pretty obvious by this time tomorrow it will be a GA/SC border landfall lol.....the bad news is the trend today has been away from a OTS solution and more towards a eventual landfall....luckily we have 10 days to go and much will hopefully change....this isnt something anyone on the EC should want to deal with there is no reason to expect this thing to be some ragged Cat 2 coming up the coast, all models indicate a large well formed monster Cat 3/4 at least. Close to 8 days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: Goalposts continue to shrink. Realistically between Cape Cod (perhaps east of the cape in case it still goes more OTS), and central Florida now imo. I'd argue Jacksonville ---> Maryland w/ an emphasis on Charleston/Savannah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Its going to come in south of this imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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