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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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7 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Well, taking into account there has only been 5 recorded cases of majors east of 40W since 1851...not really a big pool to take samples from.

Are there any other majors in the satellite era, other than IKE in 2008 ,to make such a big WSW dip in the larger Atlantic basin outside the Caribbean and Gulf?

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seeya LI....nice knowing ya. GFS slams that area full speed ahead. It will be drastically different in 6 hours but thats some model porn right there.

Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk
 

loop the 500mb and it's like a game of red rover. pretty neat! 

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42 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

That's a remarkable stat, Chris.  I usually let the climo be my guide when it comes to tracking these things, but in Irma's case, my confidence is reduced.  Odds usually disfavor a US LF (and still do at this point here IMO), but that said, the probability here seems higher than usual for a storm at her strength and location.

IMHO, this WSW dip is the main reason this has a shot of getting back near or west of 70W. 

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Are there any others in the satellite era other than IKE in 2008 to make such a big WSW dip in the larger Atlantic basin outside the Caribbean and Gulf?

Satellite era or not, probably the only other major with such a pronounced WSW to SW movement for a prolonged period of time, outside of the GoM or Caribbean, is the Bahamas Hurricane of 1929

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Here's the overall trend: The hurricane will most likely NOT interact with Hispaniola and Cuba, which means it's most likely not a threat for the Gulf states. So we can take that off the map. But the trend has been for some kind of trough to pick up and pull it north. Now, will it recurve? Will it hit the keys? Western FL? The Carolinas? NYC? Time will tell, but these are the overall trends.

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2 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Satellite era or not, probably the only other major with such a pronounced WSW to SW movement for a prolonged period of time is the Bahamas Hurricane of 1929

I do not think it is about the WSW dip so much as the blocking that is forecast to be setting up across the NW Atlantic and NE Canada.  The existence of this feature determines whether or not the storm can escape OTS.

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1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Here's the overall trend: The hurricane will most likely NOT interact with Hispaniola and Cuba, which means it's most likely not a threat for the Gulf states. So we can take that off the map. Now, will it recurve? Will it hit the keys? Western FL? The Carolinas? NYC?

I

I would say another 48 hours and we may be able to eliminate the into the GOM idea but not yet.

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7 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Satellite era or not, probably the only other major with such a pronounced WSW to SW movement for a prolonged period of time, outside of the GoM or Caribbean, is the Bahamas Hurricane of 1929

 

3 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Oh, and Betsy

Common theme with all 3, hitting the US. Not saying it would happen but when regain latitude toward the south like this is forecast to, it changes the game up considerably.

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3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

 

Common theme with all 3, hitting the US. Not saying it would happen but when regain latitude toward the south like this is forecast to, it changes the game up considerably.

Betsy and the 1929 storm had the southwest turn happen much closer to the US than Irma so that it basically had no choice but to strike the US, but point taken.

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You can see how the steering currents in the W Atlantic force the storm north. This is due to the combination of the trough in the eastern US and the WAR. As the trough becomes negatively tilted, Irma has nowhere to go except for NW, right into the eastern US coast. With this being said, it will still take about a week for the track of Irma to be more well defined. All options are on the table at this point: a strike to the east coast (Florida to Maine), a fish storm, or possibly even a GOM storm. It's too early to know, as the CONUS pattern may become completely different as next week rolls on. With this being said, the risk for a US landfall is much higher than normal at this point in time. Pay attention to this one for sure.

gfs_uv250_us_fh186-216.thumb.gif.4134910c92a28a59c88abd5d05ccee1c.gif

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1 minute ago, TriPol said:

What are the analogs of the hurricanes that became major at this longitude that also have a SW dip that did not strike the US and recurved OTS?

Like I said, there are only 5 recorded cases of majors east of 40W since 1851. None had a SW dip

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