NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, friedmators said: I wonder if Jose will get close enough to influence Irma with regards to track. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Irma is probably going to result in massive upwelling in it's wake, and the outflow is going to be tremendous, which will both affect Jose negatively if it gets close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Would be something if the I storm that replaced Irene in 2011 took a generally similar track. They're going to need to retire the letter I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 RI again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, ag3 said: Between hours 228 and 240 movement on the Euro is NNW. Between hours 234 and 240, it's almost due north. Would likely result in an eastern SC/NC hit and then near LI. Not going to diagnose model too much but I would expect more NW movement in that time period with the location of the upper low, partial capture and the ridge to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, Juliancolton said: Let's cool it a little with this, hey? Drawing the name of every destructive East Coast hurricane is wildly irresponsible when your storm is still well offshore at 240 hours. It's not irresponsible considering it is a legit threat. Irma is going to be a strong cat 4-5 with at least potential to landfall as a cat 3. It comes down to the building NE ridge and if Irma can miss the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: RI again? Yup, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 NHC forecast didn't have Irma as a major until Sunday 8am... I would expect to see some changes to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, olafminesaw said: They're going to need to retire the letter I List of I storms that have been retired since 2001....Irene 2011..Igor 2010..Ike...2008..Ivan 2004...Isabel 2003..Isadore 2002..Iris 2001.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: List of I storms that have been retired since 2001....Irene 2011..Igor 2010..Ike...2008..Ivan 2004...Isabel 2003..Isadore 2002..Iris 2001.. Really just a function of being a typical peak season letter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: List of I storms that have been retired since 2001....Irene 2011..Igor 2010..Ike...2008..Ivan 2004...Isabel 2003..Isadore 2002..Iris 2001.. You have to take into account that I usually comes up around the peak of hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 12z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: You have to take into account that I usually comes up around the peak of hurricane season. There's definitely been a break in the pattern during the past 6 years. This is the longest we've gone since 2001 without retiring an "I" name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 So far I like a comibination of Floyd/Irene the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Eye temperature bolded. 2017SEP01 174500 5.0 968.5 90.0 5.0 5.7 5.8 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -5.26 -64.66 EYE 15 IR 80.5 18.76 38.38 COMBO GOES13 46.8 2017SEP01 181500 5.3 962.9 97.2 5.3 5.8 5.9 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF 4.64 -64.74 EYE 16 IR 80.5 18.78 38.48 COMBO GOES13 46.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, TriPol said: There's definitely been a break in the pattern during the past 6 years. This is the longest we've gone since 2001 without retiring an "I" name. Have you forgotten Irene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You have to take into account that I usually comes up around the peak of hurricane season. It has been one of the more common retiree letters since 2000 with so many named storms getting further into the aplahbet. Further back in time the A,B,C, D were more common in less active years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: It has been one of the more common retiree letters since 2000 with so many named storms getting further into the aplahbet. Further back in time the A,B,C, D were more common in less active years. yep. Carol, Diane, Edna etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Have you forgotten Irene? Not at all. Irene was 6 years ago. The longest we went was 4 years between Ivan and Ike. Could be noise, or the beginning of another active pattern in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: yep. Carol, Diane, Edna etc... 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It has been one of the more common retiree letters since 2000 with so many named storms getting further into the aplahbet. Further back in time the A,B,C, D were more common in less active years. But in less active years, those letters come out later in the season. Look at 92 for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, TriPol said: Not at all. Irene was 6 years ago. The longest we went was 4 years between Ivan and Ike. Could be noise, or the beginning of another active pattern in the Atlantic. Oh gotcha. We almost had two back to back retirees in 2007 with D and F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I also agree that the general pattern at the end of the Euro run with an upper low in the Midwest and a building ridge to the north/northeast of the storm argues for a more NW component. But hey it's 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, CaWx said: So far I like a comibination of Floyd/Irene the most. Are you just trolling at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: yep. Carol, Diane, Edna etc... Since the more active phase in 1995, the I's have the most cat 5 retirees at 2 so far with Isabel and Ivan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 12z NAVGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 28 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: If this hits the OBX as a cat 4 or 5, you can say goodbye to several islands. Don't believe there has ever been a cat 5 that far north. Only a few cat 4s too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 12z JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, andyhb said: Are you just trolling at this point? What makes you say this? These are legit comparisons, especially with a more progressive trough and a building NE ridge. I was thinking last night the GFS maybe right with the deeper trough, but trends are Irma may miss it. Places near NC and New England need to be prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, Hoth said: Don't believe there has ever been a cat 5 that far north. Only a few cat 4s too. This is about the only example I can think of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This is about the only example I can think of That shows '38 as a cat 2 at LI landfall. Don't think that's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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