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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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4 minutes ago, andyhb said:

If we're going to make comparisons regarding size, Floyd is the answer.

Also possibly the track.  Remember how Floyd was supposed to make landfall in Fla and it just wandered around before making landfall in NC (which contributed to it losing some steam- at one point it was a fierce 155 mph Cat 4).

 

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1 minute ago, harrisale said:

If Irma ends up the size that it's progged to be there are going to be some serious storm surge impacts.

Looks likely we can write off any land interaction with Hispaniola or Cuba at this point. This storm will have uninterrupted 27C+ waters right up to Florida to work with.

If this hits the OBX as a cat 4 or 5, you can say goodbye to several islands. 

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4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

With the upper low to the west capturimg Irma at the end of the run it would head more NW, has a similar look to Fran from 1996.

The fact the Irma even remotely looks like an Isabel or Floyd is incredible to think about. 

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4 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Between hours 228 and 240 movement on the Euro is NNW. Between hours 234 and 240, it's almost due north.

Would likely result in an eastern SC/NC hit and then near LI.

Would be something if the I storm that replaced Irene in 2011 took a generally similar track.

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13 minutes ago, CaWx said:

Right now I think Floyd is the best comparison. 

 

Intensity wise, could have some Isabel potential. 

11 minutes ago, CaWx said:

Irma is going to be another Isabel, she just looks sexy already. 

1 minute ago, CaWx said:

Almost similar to Irene. 

Let's cool it a little with this, hey? Drawing the name of every destructive East Coast hurricane is wildly irresponsible when your storm is still well offshore at 240 hours.

 

 

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I did some poking around. I believe the record for IKE (integrated kinetic energy) was Hurricane Isabel in 2003 (Katrina and Sandy are pretty high up on the list as well). It achieved an IKE of 212 TJ on 9/18 at 15Z with a pressure of 957mb as it approached the coast. The Euro is forecasting Irma to be of similar size but with a pressure of 918mb. Verbatim the Euro would be very close to (or possibly exceed) Isabel in terms of kinetic energy and power output. Here is the pattern for Isabel at peak IKE.

bLmsPT7.gif

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