Hazey Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Goal posts tightening. A Carolinas hit is my prediction. GFS trending south. Euro will start trending north I would wager. Still heaps of time but tracking is fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Good prep for winter Thank goodness we wont have to stay up a extra hour then! You're so right about that. Can't wait for these models to move up an hour Of course, my issue is that I usually don't care about winter storms until it's within a few days, and then I'm tempted to stay up for the 06z NAM, so I guess it makes little difference in the end, because I'll convince myself to stay up if I really want to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 00z GGEM mauls FL at the end of its run... and I mean MAULS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, yoda said: 00z GGEM mauls FL at the end of its run... and I mean MAULS That mustn't happen. There are too many people in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 We are slowly starting to define the goalposts. GFS seems to be caving towards the EURO. Hopefully we can narrow them somewhat quickly, as it seems someone is going to get walloped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Does anyone else think Irma is taking on some annular qualities to it? Rain bands seem to be diminishing, although the eye is pretty small atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 13 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said: That mustn't happen. There are too many people in Florida. Generally the safest place to be in a tropical cyclone is a Canadian model landfall location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Basically from Texas to Maine is a possibility at the moment. A lot of guidance indicating a major CONUS interaction this far out is not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, friedmators said: Basically from Texas to Maine is a possibility at the moment. A lot of guidance indicating a major CONUS interaction this far out is not a good sign. I've got a reporter currently working up a story on the capabilities of fema following Harvey. It's going to be interesting to see the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Euro initializes further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, cdhay17 said: Euro initializes further south Also looks like it initiated at 1004 millibars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Atlantic ridge seems to be a lock at this point. Going to need something big to change for this to be a fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I don't know if I agree with the Euro's solution, it has a further inland trough with a fairly strong HP off the east coast. The GFS has a deeper trough that sweeps into the east coast during this time frame. I think with the more recent push of troughs within the last week, a pattern change seems firmly in place during the last week and it looks to continue during Irma's approach. The west coast ridge has been no joke, and it is very amplified, and the PNA looks to remain fairly positive. As long as the west coast ridge is so prominent, I have a hard time seeing the Euro's solution. As of now, my guess is a close brush with the east coast, but no official landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, CaWx said: I don't know if I agree with the Euro's solution, it has a further inland trough with a fairly strong HP off the east coast. The GFS has a deeper trough that sweeps into the east coast during this time frame. I think with the more recent push of troughs within the last week, a pattern change seems firmly in place during the last week and it looks to continue during Irma's approach. The west coast ridge has been no joke, and it is very amplified, and the PNA looks to remain fairly positive. As long as the west coast ridge is so prominent, I have a hard time seeing the Euro's solution. As of now, my guess is a close brush with the east coast, but no official landfall. The GFS has evolved the trough differently every single run, not sure how you could have any confidence in any GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXEnthusiast Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Looks like Euro is starting to fall in line with GFSSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Euro significantly north and east at 168 with ridging suggestion it will gain even more lat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, Stebo said: The GFS has evolved the trough differently every single run, not sure how you could have any confidence in any GFS solution. I have noticed, usually leading up to potenial landfalls, if there is a monster west ridge + week leading up to hurricane is below average temperatures in the east, the pattern usually holds and trough usually prevents a direct landfall. This ridge is no joke, many places in the west are going to break all time September highs, especially here in California. This ridge is going to kick some down stream troughing, no doubt about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, WXEnthusiast said: Looks like Euro is starting to fall in line with GFS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 922 just east of Central Bahamas next Saturday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Not quite sure what to make of the 00z Euro, as far as any potential for US impacts go. Ends up northeast of the Bahamas as a 920mb Hurricane by hr240 headed poleward. Bottom line is that these long-range model forecasts are going to continue to be highly volatile/inconsistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Basically, models still don't have much of a clue what the eastern US pattern will look like beyond seven days.... 00z Euro radically different tonight vs last night, and will probably be radically different again tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 That's why you don't model hug a week out. A few days of consistency and even trends can get squashed. Pretty drastic differences in that the ECMWF has a stronger trough, doesn't truncate it and cut off a low. Backs off heights to the east and leaves Irma a good bit off the SE coast. You just can't have any certainty this far out of a CONUS hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 20 minutes ago, Windspeed said: That's why you don't model hug a week out. A few days of consistency and even trends can get squashed. Pretty drastic differences in that the ECMWF has a stronger trough, doesn't truncate it and cut off a low. Backs off heights to the east and leaves Irma a good bit off the SE coast. You just can't have any certainty this far out of a CONUS hit. This run makes a lot more sense though, logically a very amplified west ridge is going to have some downstream troughing. Unfortunately for hurricane lovers, I don't see the models trending back to SE landfalls. I could see if heights are stronger, it could clip the New England areas, but at this point I think any sweeping trough could keep Irma offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 46 minutes ago, CaWx said: This run makes a lot more sense though, logically a very amplified west ridge is going to have some downstream troughing. Unfortunately for hurricane lovers, I don't see the models trending back to SE landfalls. I could see if heights are stronger, it could clip the New England areas, but at this point I think any sweeping trough could keep Irma offshore. Umm.... CMC (not that it should be counted, but follow the rest of this), the GFS, and (I'm assuming) the Euro just all had CONUS landfall. Is this all because one run of the Euro jumped North some? I see no reason to believe that the likelihood of a landfall has changed at all since earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: That's why you don't model hug a week out. A few days of consistency and even trends can get squashed. Pretty drastic differences in that the ECMWF has a stronger trough, doesn't truncate it and cut off a low. Backs off heights to the east and leaves Irma a good bit off the SE coast. You just can't have any certainty this far out of a CONUS hit. I haven't really seen that much model hugging, to be fair. It's just that... if basically every model is showing a decent change of landfall, especially with the strength these models are showing, it's definitely going to get some attention. Not sure you were really aiming that comment at anyone, or just making the observation, but figured I would give my cent and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just would like to reiterate that there's no such thing as trends when talking a 10 day forecast on a small scale, the variables will be incredibly shifty. Irma could impact anyone from the Gulf to the Canadian maritimes or go OTS (Bermuda?). Odds are still heavily weighed towards an OTS track though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Just would like to reiterate that there's no such thing as trends when talking a 10 day forecast on a small scale, the variables will be incredibly shifty. Irma could impact anyone from the Gulf to the Canadian maritimes or go OTS (Bermuda?). Odds are still heavily weighed towards an OTS track though. It's hard to get an OTS track with the Atlantic ridging that's in place. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Looks like the 6z GFS will be well east of 0z, Irma starts the turn north east of the Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: Looks like the 6z GFS will be well east of 0z, Irma starts the turn north east of the Bahamas Yeah, 06z says hello Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: It's hard to get an OTS track with the Atlantic ridging that's in place. We shall see. 06z gfs says no it isn't. All you need is a break in the ridge and off she goes. It's going to be extremely difficult to get her close without a building WAR (something that's been lacking all summer). A cut-off could also help. Many runs to go though but I'm hedging my bets on an OTS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Yeah, 06z says hello Bermuda. The European from last night trended towards the same idea. Still plenty of time to figure out the evolution of the 500mb pattern over North America and to see if we can get enough WAR. A fish storm is still very much on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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