NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: GFS about 10mb weaker at 30. Ridge and ULL about the same if not a tad weaker. How many times does it need to be said that MSLP is useless because the resolution is too poor. Even the high res versions don't handle it correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 ULL much weaker this run. Gonna be more South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I believe 2 AF C-130's are still in the US Virgin Islands. As to flying the storms so the folks in the Antilles know whats coming? Trust me. The folks down there are very aware. All they need is an estimate. They aren't going anywhere and they are already prepared. They will fly it if it looks to threaten the Islands and when it's safe to fly it. But if you're that curious you can track all of the aircraft here... https://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/#!/status/list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I am sure we'll fly a recon mission in Irma when it gets within range for the islands. My earlier post was referring to Gulf Stream flights for heights sampling and atmospheric data for models. Wouldn't expect to see that until Irma is within 96 hrs of potential CONUS threat as it wouldn't contribute enough discernable improvement in modeling that far out in time to matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coopdog Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 41 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Has Recon flew into this at all? Michael Ross McAlister, he flys these missions. Check him on facebook. 59 minutes ago headed to Barbados to check out Irma. Looks like Saturday will be first fly into Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 00z GFS through 96 has started to move WNW... looks like it might clip the N Antilles on its way by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 GFS running to the south a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Surely I'm not the only one seeing this......This has Cat 4 written all over it in the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: A Category 4 hurricane in New York State (most likely Long Island) would be a very rare, but probably not impossible event. If one runs a power distribution on land falling hurricane impacts in the Virginia-Maine area, the numbers would suggest approximately a one-in-200-year case. Obviously Virginia would be far more favored than New York. Although no Category 4 hurricanes affected this area (VA-ME) since 1851, it is plausible that the 1821 Hurricane that made second landfall near Cape May, NJ might have been at Category 4 strength when it moved across the Virginia Capes. Moreover, one storm was observed just below Category 4 strength around 40°N latitude. Gerda (1969) had 110-knot sustained winds as far north as 40.1°N, 69.9°W. The 1635 New England hurricane may have rivaled the 1938 hurricane's intensity (105 knot sustained winds). There is also some sedimentary evidence of an even greater hurricane that impacted New Jersey northward sometime in the 1278-1446 time frame, but other variables e.g., a strike at high tide might offer alternative explanations. Always fascinated by the early hurricanes in New England esp the 1635 storm plus the pre colonial storm as mentioned don. Fascinating to think about these storms have been affecting the area for 800 plus years. This will def be a interesting storm to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, cdhay17 said: GFS running to the south a bit Still going to pass north of the islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Irma headed WNW at 138, passing north of the Antilles and north of PR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Irma headed WNW at 138, passing north of the Antilles and north of PR You know one of these runs will come in with a mid-Atlantic ravager if the south shifts continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 At 168 it looks a good 100 miles or so South of where it was at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 This is going to be an interesting run at 180 looking in KY/TN at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Hello CONUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Isabel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Start dusting off the hugo papers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Mid atlantic is about to get absolutely smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Subtropics said: Mid atlantic is about to get absolutely smoked Luckily there aren't any large population centers until Hampton Roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 IR shows possible transition to cold core. Added bonus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 The GFS actually retrogrades the Midwest cutoff a bit as Irma approaches. Fascinating evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Oh man.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 LF at VA Beach then up to DC it looks like.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, SN_Lover said: LF at VA Beach then up to DC it looks like.... And here comes the hype. Model will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I can't believe I'm staying up at 12:45 a.m. for run 8 days out. Not sure how this is going to end but it almost looks like a 1938 Style storm for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Welp, this hypothetical cane pretty much throws a lit match over the Mid Atlantic sub-forum for next week should be quite a show if it goes down like this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Big difference approaching the NC-VA border at 228 on the 0Z and and at 234 on the 18Z it's in Massachusetts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I pretty much handle landfalls in that area like I do landfalls between SAV-JAX. I'll believe it when I see it. Storms usually never come in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, wxeyeNH said: I can't believe I'm staying up at 12:45 a.m. for run 8 days out. Not sure how this is going to end but it almost looks like a 1938 Style storm for New England. Good prep for winter Thank goodness we wont have to stay up a extra hour then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mophstymeo01 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 And here comes the hype. Model will change. Very likely. With every GFS run, landfall is further south. By tomorrow night, it'll be showing a Florida strike.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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