Tibet Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: you will see.... don't forget the high mountains for added excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 The trough/ cutoff over Missouri is lifting out days 9 to 10, hence why this is allowed to get into the Gulf on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stellarfun Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Euro at 240 has it about 40 miles west of Key West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Euro and GFS are night and day difference. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 This looks like another GFS vs Euro storm. GFS taking it up the coast. Euro with a South Florida hit and then moving into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, LandofLincoln said: Well, I guess one very slight positive is that it slightly weakened as it headed to FL. I mean, not to downplay it by any means, but it's been than it strengthening. You really cannot go by what the MSLP is reading, it lacks the resolution to show the correct intensities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 NJwx85, what does storm vista have as the minimum pressure at hr 216 on the Euro? TrueWeather and weather.us has 923mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 BTW, the Euro has Jose taking the same track behind Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: You really cannot go by what the MSLP is reading, it lacks the resolution to show the correct intensities. Darnit, don't ruin my moment of hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, bdgwx said: NJwx85, what does storm vista have as the minimum pressure at hr 216 on the Euro? TrueWeather and weather.us has 923mb. 940's, but as I've said, it's completely irrelevant. Important thing is track and environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 At least we're not seeing any ridiculous TCHP values along the progged EURO storm track at the moment, especially in the Gulf due to Harvey. Of course this could change 7-10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 UKMET at 144 hrs is a compromise between the the Euro and GFS. North of Euro and south of GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, LandofLincoln said: Darnit, don't ruin my moment of hope Does this look weak to you? That wind field is humongous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 12z NAVGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 940's, but as I've said, it's completely irrelevant. Important thing is track and environment. Thanks. I wonder if storm vista is using the lower resolution outputs. I think truewx.com weather.us use the high resolution files. Anyway, yeah, I agree. A D9 intensity forecast isn't going to be very useful anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Does this look weak to you? That wind field is humongous. I would think Irma would get absorbed by the trough sweeping through after slamming into the Florida Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 12z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Does this look weak to you? That wind field is humongous. I know, I know. I was just grasping at straws, because this looks like it could be terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: I would think Irma would get absorbed by the trough sweeping through after slamming into the Florida Panhandle. What would this do to Irma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: BTW, the Euro has Jose taking the same track behind Irma. No way Jose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Not surprised at the spread after all we are talking several days out. Does the euro have any other model support for it's southern track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hazey said: Not surprised at the spread after all we are talking several days out. Does the euro have any other model support for it's southern track? Latest 18z hurricane models are just north of the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: lol Euro has been wrong in the past Its euro vs world No one is saying it won't be "wrong", but the trends are what matter right now and the fact is that every model is trending further SW with less OTS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Latest 18z hurricane models are just north of the island. can we get a pic of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, cdhay17 said: can we get a pic of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Something to note, to be named storm "Jose" follows path of Irma on the GFS and on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 At least we're not seeing any ridiculous TCHP values along the progged EURO storm track at the moment, especially in the Gulf due to Harvey. Of course this could change 7-10 days out. Don't focus on the red coloration. That depth is far beyond overkill for a non-stalled hurricane and Oceanic Heat Potential. Anything over 70 kJ^-3 is potent for a moving hurricane. The 26° isotherm is very deep from 50W all the way to the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 18z models suite initiated at 100kts cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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