Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 85-90mph cane not out of the realm of possibility at this time. Solidly intensifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 51 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Latest experts weigh in--Harvey with a $190 billion price tag. Cost of Katrina and Sandy combined... Irma will be critical to watch for this reason alone. https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-predicts-hurricane-harvey-to-be-the-most-costly-natural-disaster-in-us-history/70002597 Hopefully, the damage won't be as extensive. But I continue to worry that this will be either the most damaging or second most damaging storm on record. The single insurance company that called Harvey 'much less' damaging than Katrina and Sandy was an outlier. Even relying strictly on the modeled QPF, the prediction appeared outlandish with a Top 3 storm appearing much more likely. My guess is that the company was "front running" for headlines as its idea would largely have been based on the combination of insurable property values and huge damage-related assumptions. Making such premature predictions can be perilous, but the temptation to do so often overwhelms sounder judgment. In the case of Harvey, the prediction was made shortly after it had made landfall near Rockport and before much of its historic rains had fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Anyone know what this means saw it on a different weather forum AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 40, 60, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 10, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, This is new information that supersedes the satellite information I had just posted. It suggests a 987 mb 75-knot hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: What does it tell us that current max velocities are already higher than suggested by this graphic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, RU4Real said: What does it tell us that current max velocities are already higher than suggested by this graphic? I think these are the low-res members since I know I can't post the actual ones. Regardless, with SW flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere, it would seem that a stronger and deeper vortex like Irma would begin to feel the ridge quicker and head more WSW over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, RU4Real said: What does it tell us that current max velocities are already higher than suggested by this graphic? Use ensembles for track, not intensity. I mean you wouldn't want them showing a weak system, but they lack the resolution to show correct intensities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Due to the strength of the ridge to the north, Irma has a shot at being number 6. There were a total of 44 TCs named in tropical Atlantic east of 35W in satellite era that became hurricanes & only 5 made US landfall (11%). View conversation · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Yikes! Cat 2 100 mph pressure 979 11:00 am adv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 16.9N 33.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 17.5N 35.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 18.0N 37.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 18.2N 39.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 18.1N 41.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 17.0N 46.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 16.0N 51.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 16.0N 55.5W 115 KT 130 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Cat 2...damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 311451 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017 Satellite imagines indicate that Irma is rapidly intensifying. Very deep convection has formed in the central dense overcast, which is now displaying a small and clearing eye. Dvorak estimates were up to 77 kt at 1200 UTC, and since the cloud pattern continues to quickly become more organized, the initial wind speed is set to 85 kt. Irma has moved somewhat south of and slower than all of the model guidance since yesterday. Consequently, it stayed longer over the warmer ocean temperatures away from the drier air to the north, possibly allowing the rapid strengthening. Irma should move over cooler waters tomorrow with some increase in mid-level dry air, so hopefully the hurricane's intensity will level off by then. In a few days, the hurricane will be moving over warmer waters with light shear shown by all of the model guidance. This should promote further strengthening of Irma, and the NHC forecast shows an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane next week, similar to the solutions provided by the HWRF and the ECMWF models. The intensity forecast is raised considerably from the previous one due to initial trends, and is on the high end of the guidance at long range. The hurricane has turned west-northwestward at about 9 kt. This motion should continue for the next day or so before a ridge builds over the central Atlantic Ocean. This ridge should force Irma to turn westward by the weekend, and west-southwestward early next week. Guidance continues to trend southward, following the trend of the ECMWF model starting yesterday. Given the strength of the ridge and depth of the tropical cyclone, there are no obvious reasons to discount the anomalous west-southwestward motion seen in most of the guidance. Little change is made to the track forecast in short range, but the track is shifted southward and westward at long range, though not as far southwest as the overnight ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Looking good... certainly a solid core now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Wow, cat 4 next week. Here we go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 16.9N 33.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 17.5N 35.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 18.0N 37.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 18.2N 39.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 18.1N 41.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 17.0N 46.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 16.0N 51.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 16.0N 55.5W 115 KT 130 MPH Honestly these seem conservative to me, NWP aside, this thing has really organized in a HURRY. And nothing is really going to slow it down much from what I can tell. Maybe some dry air later on, but that won't effect a well organized major hurricane all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 100 mph....hmmm. I thought 90mph and even that was too conservative. Ther' she blow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 It should be noted that so far, Irma has been verifying on the southern end of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It should be noted that so far, Irma has been verifying on the southern end of guidance. Looks like that helped her avoid some mid-level dry air to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Latest visible suggests the eye has cleared out. Cat 3 on the 5 pm advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I wonder how long the southward trend continues? Given the apparent strength of the Atlantic ridge and Irma's tendency to already be verifying south of guidance what are the chances it stays south into the Caribbean? One more nudge south by the Euro and it would basically stay south of most or all of the islands. Then the question becomes how much influence does the eastern trough have in the day 7-10 range? Lots to still be sorted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Scary that it's a cat 2 now and has a lot of open water to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, Brick Tamland said: Scary that it's a cat 2 now and has a lot of open water to work with. The 11am advisory noted that Irma will encounter some weak shear/dry air and some slightly cooler water over the next day to hold off on major RI. As we saw with Harvey though, there appears to be almost 2 classes of RI (TS - > Hurr, Hurr -> M. Hurr). Still, with the eye appearing to clear out now on satellite I wonder if this gets a nudge to cat 3 status tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Guys stop with the dramatics. It's not unusual to see a major hurricane in this position during this time of the year. Most of the time they head harmlessly OTS. Let's all remember the average track error is tremendous, especially beyond day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Perhaps the gfs isn't snorting crack with it's sub 900mb model depictions. I'm feeling confident this attains cat 5 status at some point in it's life cycle. Probably sooner than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The 11am advisory noted that Irma will encounter some weak shear/dry air and some slightly cooler water over the next day to hold off on major RI. As we saw with Harvey though, there appears to be almost 2 classes of RI (TS - > Hurr, Hurr -> M. Hurr). Still, with the eye appearing to clear out now on satellite I wonder if this gets a nudge to cat 3 status tonight. We're not talking substantially drier air, or substantially cooler waters, especially given that Irma has been on the far Southern end of the track consensus. It's also going to make much less of a difference if Irma is already a major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Obvious jump to the NW, could just be a wobble though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 HWRF verifying the best so far on strength...had it at 979 mb right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 HWRF gets Irma to Cat 5. Only TWO storms on record have achieved category 5 intensity east of 55W: Hugo and Isabel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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