LandofLincoln Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 HWRF looks strong again, but hard to tell the direction it moves on TT, because I don't know of a way to zoom out. Anyone got something better on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, LandofLincoln said: HWRF looks strong again, but hard to tell the direction it moves on TT, because I don't know of a way to zoom out. Anyone got something better on that? hr 45- Looks like its lost a few degrees LAT and lost pressure compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 While I won't become to invested in tracking Irma until early next week wow at the GFS, many options on the table. The Euro should be interesting, the east coast of the United States should be on alert for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 The 0Z Euro takes Irma directly over Cuba at 240 hours. The 6z GFS is way west of 0z approaching the Southeast coast at 240 hours. It then slams NC all the way up to NYC and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 6z GFS has a major hurricane into Hatteras and then goes up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Scary run from the 6z GFS. Just one of many scenarios that could play out. I'm not buying last nights run of the EURO. Theres multiple troughs exiting the east coast as Irma approaches. While possible, Its going to be difficult for Irma to stay suppressed and enter the gulf. With a pressing WAR unless she can find a weakness and escape OTS, the east coast is under the gun. Long way to go folks. At the very least, this board is going into weenie mode for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 That 6Z run of the GFS would be 500B -1 Trillion storm if it played out exactly like that. A lot of major population centers on that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Keep in mind that all of the 28 FEMA USAR teams are, in some what shape or form, already tied to Texas and Louisiana for the next 4 weeks. This is the first time in history that all national USAR teams hare deployed at once. So if Irma gets herself together and make landfall as a strong storm then response will be further complicated. There are some regional Incident Management Teams (IMTs) like the Baltimore IMT and Chicago IMT, but those are not designed for the Type I incidents like this...they are more for regional things like presidential visits, super bowls, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 The 06z HWRF and HMON are very similar in track and intensity. Both models show a bit of struggling in the day 3 range followed by significant deepening days 4-5. Here is the 06z HMON for reference. Looks like it could be undergoing an ERC here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Keep in mind that all of the 28 FEMA USAR teams are, in some what shape or form, already tied to Texas and Louisiana for the next 4 weeks. This is the first time in history that all national USAR teams hare deployed at once. So if Irma gets herself together and make landfall as a strong storm then response will be further complicated. There are some regional Incident Management Teams (IMTs) like the Baltimore IMT and Chicago IMT, but those are not designed for the Type I incidents like this...they are more for regional things like presidential visits, super bowls, etc. When I was at FEMA last summer (I am now in Local OEM), a career veteran of FEMA told me, "If two major disasters hit at the same time in different parts of the country, FEMA will break." If IRMA followed a track like the 6z GFS, I am afraid that scenario would play out. Obviously lots of time to determine where/if Irma will be a threat, but following on the tail of Harvey, it is a scary situation to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 13 minutes ago, CoastalBecs said: When I was at FEMA last summer (I am now in Local OEM), a career veteran of FEMA told me, "If two major disasters hit at the same time in different parts of the country, FEMA will break." If IRMA followed a track like the 6z GFS, I am afraid that scenario would play out. Obviously lots of time to determine where/if Irma will be a threat, but following on the tail of Harvey, it is a scary situation to consider. Latest experts weigh in--Harvey with a $190 billion price tag. Cost of Katrina and Sandy combined... Irma will be critical to watch for this reason alone. https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-predicts-hurricane-harvey-to-be-the-most-costly-natural-disaster-in-us-history/70002597 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Is that an eye or eye like structure beginning to form on Irma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 41 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That's almost like a trolling track. It tries to hit more or less everything it can including Puerto Rico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I'd be shocked if Irma isn't a hurricane now. Looking very impressive. Will only go up from here. Not a lot of road blocks or speed bumps in the path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 That dip to the south is like it's getting momentum to come back up to wreak havoc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hazey said: I'd be shocked if Irma isn't a hurricane now. Looking very impressive. Will only go up from here. Not a lot of road blocks or speed bumps in the path. Agree based on visible structure showing eye-like features, haven't looked at the microwave. I'd say 80mph are a good possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 52 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I really hope that isn't the actual track Irma takes. I have a lot of family in the north shore of the Dominican Republic ( Puerto Plata) and that would be really bad to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Which model did best with Harvey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Which model did best with Harvey? Euro, IMO. GFS wasn't terrible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I don't think they upgrade Irma without at least 1 recon flight first. That's just me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I don't think they upgrade Irma without at least 1 recon flight first. That's just me though. When will recon have its first flight being is sooo far out in the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: When will recon have its first flight being is sooo far out in the Atlantic? Scratch that thought...you can see an eye trying to pop on visible and infrared. Irma's a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: When will recon have its first flight being is sooo far out in the Atlantic? I want to say they only go out to 40W which is still 36 hours or so out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I don't think they upgrade Irma without at least 1 recon flight first. That's just me though. Usually from that far in the Atlantic, satellite intensity estimates are relied on to a large extent. The latest such estimates show a 65 knot-70 knot hurricane. If that holds, the 11 am advisory will probably show a 65 knot hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Anyone know what this means saw it on a different weather forum AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 40, 60, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 10, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Scratch that thought...you can see an eye trying to pop on visible and infrared. Irma's a hurricane. Already up to 75 knots per ATCF AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Anyone know what this means saw it on a different weather forum AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 40, 60, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 10, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, It means the NHC is likely to go with 75 knots at 11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Outflow is just a little restricted to the NW of the center thanks to some shear, and that could keep this in check the next few days as most of the modeling indicates, however Irma is clearly already a hurricane with a well established core per microwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.