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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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I still can't get over the fact that the gfs takes it down to 903mb. That's like top 10? top 15?. I'm sure it's overdone but that is very aggressive especially that it's 8+ days out. Even the euro down to 940's is no slouch. This will be interesting to watch unfold.  What are the chances that after a long non land falling major in the continental US drought, it is broken with multiple hits this year. Yikes.

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Just now, Hazey said:

I still can't get over the fact that the gfs takes it down to 903mb. That's like top 10? top 15?. I'm sure it's overdone but that is very aggressive especially that it's 8+ days out. Even the euro down to 940's is no slouch. This will be interesting to watch unfold.  What are the chances that after a long non land falling major in the continental US drought, it is broken with multiple hits this year. Yikes.

We've seen this numerous times recently, it's really not that unusual. The 903mb is not the important factor, it's that the global's have well organized, large tropical cyclone in a favorable position to impact land in the long range.

One thing that's been overlooked is that the MDR has been so dead of recent years, that the islands really haven't experienced a significant hurricane in many years.

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4 minutes ago, Hazey said:

I still can't get over the fact that the gfs takes it down to 903mb. That's like top 10? top 15?. I'm sure it's overdone but that is very aggressive especially that it's 8+ days out. Even the euro down to 940's is no slouch. This will be interesting to watch unfold.  What are the chances that after a long non land falling major in the continental US drought, it is broken with multiple hits this year. Yikes.

That's usually what happens historically. Hurricanes come in waves, especially landfalling hurricanes. The 1950's is a notorious decade for this phenonenon.

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That's a fairly sizable trough in the Eastern US in the Day 6-9 range. Just how long that lingers will determine if this is really a threat to the US. GFS says it picks the system up, Euro says the trough leaves it. Though even on the Euro it looks pretty close to picking it up to me. If the trough is just a little slower/deeper than shown right now this should move out to sea a fairly safe distance from the US.

Edit to add: The track difference between the Euro and GFS become pretty sizable even by day 5/6, with the GFS much further north, which makes recurve that much easier when the eastern trough lifts out. 

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Up to 60MPH latest advisory, it's honestly probably already a hurricane based on appearance alone.

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

...IRMA INTENSIFYING STEADILY OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 31.2W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 31.2 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h).  The tropical storm
is expected to turn slightly toward the west-northwest at a
slower rate of speed for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Irma is
expected to become a hurricane Thursday or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

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cone graphic

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 16.4N  31.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 16.8N  32.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 17.3N  34.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 17.8N  36.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 18.2N  38.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 18.2N  43.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 17.3N  47.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 16.5N  52.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

NHC acknowledges forecast could be conservative.

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Edit to add: The track difference between the Euro and GFS become pretty sizable even by day 5/6, with the GFS much further north, which makes recurve that much easier when the eastern trough lifts out. 


Yeah we should have an idea by the weekend which camp Irma is leaning toward. I think the euro would be a very close shave to the eastern seaboard if it ran longer.
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1 minute ago, Tibet said:

 

I'm hesitant to laugh about these things after the extreme rain total verifications in Texas.

Model skill is fairly poor with regards to TC intensify, especially beyond 5 days. Important thing is that it shows a well organized system in a favorable pattern and environment.

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The wave originated from Africa, it's a CV hurricane.

Quote

Cape Verde-type hurricanes are those Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that develop into tropical storms fairly close (<1000 km [600 mi] or so) of the Cape Verde Islands and then become hurricanes before reaching the Caribbean. (That would be my definition, there may be others.)

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A2.html

I think this is the most commonly accepted definition.

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The wave originated from Africa, it's a CV hurricane.

 

It did form from an African wave just like Harvey formed from an African wave. Is Harvey a Cape Verde hurricane? I understand your point. But the majority of systems develop out of African waves at some point and their interaction with the ITCZ. The idea here I am stressing is a "Cape Verde long-tracking major hurricane." I believe there is a difference.

 

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