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snowlover2

September 2017 Discussion

463 posts in this topic


Speaking of good ole spartman, it was like clock work that he really disappeared after 4 more 90+ days occurred at DAY in mid August.

Wait, I failed. Was looking at CVG.

DAY did hit 90 today though, for the save.

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I guess I'll go 94 at ORD tomorrow.  Was tempted to pick 95, and part of me is anticipating them coming in with that just to mess up my call by a degree again.  

Will have to watch the lake breeze, but it should be similar to today in that it doesn't quite make it.  

My odds for various high temps:

93:  20%

94:  35%

95:  30%

96:  10%

anything else:  5%

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we might not be notching 90's but this night time warmth is off the charts impressive and enjoyable.  windows wide open to the the sounds of darkness  and a choir of frogs and rains sucks singing me the best songs about heat.

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8 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

we might not be notching 90's but this night time warmth is off the charts impressive and enjoyable.  windows wide open to the the sounds of darkness  and a choir of frogs and rains sucks singing me the best songs about heat.

Still 85 at Midway.  Brutal UHI.  I'm not exactly rural and it's like 10 degrees cooler.

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Hope that UHI doesn't do you in tomorrow lol.  Just can't believe we're talking these kind of temps  the last 1/3 of sept.   I guess why does it surprise me - there has been a lot of extremes the last 10 yrs and I have a very limited memory.

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Latest HRRR looks like it has 96 for the ORD area, with widespread 93-95 all over northern IL.  Shows 95-96 from here over towards Sterling as well.  Noticeably cooler in that strip that got dumped on with heavy rain the other night.  Only upper 80s along that strip.

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UHI is a huge pet peeve of mine.  Not worth diverting the thread...but there is something wrong when humans can alter their environment so much that temperatures can vary by 15+ degrees in two similar locations with the same airmass.  You most often see this in late season heatwaves (like now), or sunny late fall days (when temps drop like a rock in rural areas but stay up in urban areas due to residual warmth from the sunlight), or of course winter days with snow cover.

Anyway...I was shocked at how warm it got at ORD yesterday.  It was partly/mostly cloudy nearly all day, yet still hit 94...on September 21 no less.  The only explanation I can think of is "left-over" UHI (warm start - low temp of 72), combined with mixing in the afternoon that resulted in lower dews around 60.  Dry ground too?  Winds never exceeded 10 mph...and you'd have thought that strong S/SW winds would be needed to create such warm temps.

If the mixing occurs again today and skies remain mostly sunny as they are now...then, despite slightly lower temps aloft, you'd have to think ORD will hit 95 today.  Time will tell.

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