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September 2017 Discussion


snowlover2

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44 minutes ago, rainsucks said:

Lol thanks for proving my point. Half the nation had above average to record-breaking warmth this summer. Also, these are just max temps, you should probably look at mean temps too but keep moving the goalposts. Along with that, the cool August is what brought the departures down. June and July were complete blowtorches for nearly the entire CONUS. 

Illinois Avg Temp Rankings

June: +1.3

July: +0.5

August: -2.9

Maybe next summer.

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Stopped by the Tower of History in Sault St Marie, great view of the river and the locks, would recommend. 20170913_152251.thumb.jpg.2b4535a686eb8085dfab13979f470676.jpg20170913_152248.thumb.jpg.3072637b44a1f5e3199df505b046acfd.jpg

Nice day there. Just like I remember when I checked out the Locks back in Sept '07   Bishop Baraga was living in the Sault late in his missionary days in the UP. At age 65 he hiked on snow-shoes from there down to Fort Mackinac, sleeping under the starry skies and temps of 40º below zero. In that era, 65 was like 90 today. One tough dude! Anyways, there's your UP trivia for today. Enjoy 

Story can be found here. If you don't have this book, you're missing a true Michigan wx gem

 

 

UP book.jpg

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2 hours ago, Stebo said:

In Sault St. Marie it is 80 here perfect weather. Hard to believe when I first looked at this range it was highs barely making it to 55. Goes to show you once again that long range cold shots on models this time of year are complete bunk.

Models in the long range in general are bunk. I do the same thing...i check when there is a specific date in sight. I was checking Sept 1st for a long while as I had a busy day and it had highs in the 80s. We ended up in the 60s. 

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1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Nice day there. Just like I remember when I checked out the Locks back in Sept '07   Bishop Baraga was living in the Sault late in his missionary days in the UP. At age 65 he hiked on snow-shoes from there down to Fort Mackinac, sleeping under the starry skies and temps of 40º below zero. In that era, 65 was like 90 today. One tough dude! Anyways, there's your UP trivia for today. Enjoy 

Story can be found here. If you don't have this book, you're missing a true Michigan wx gem

 

 

UP book.jpg

Karl had a presentation in Marquette last winter called Sunburns to Snowstorms, and it was an awesome pictorial history of UP extremes in weather. He is a cool Met and I report snow totals to him from time to time in significant events.

Also have that book... good one!

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

MLI still hasn't recorded measurable rain this month.  This is actually their driest Aug 1-Sep 13 on record, with only 0.68".

Yeah, haven't had any measurable rain here since Aug 28th.  Grass is still fairly green since temps haven't been too toasty during that stretch.  Did make it to 80 today though.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Different look on the ECMWF with Jose trying to back westward into the east coast. Still a warmer than average pattern overall but not as warm as the GFS.

It's all kind of threading the needle either way, because if Jose goes too far out to sea, that leaves room for the western trough to squash the ridge.

One thing that does concern me on the ECMWF is the 850mb moisture. Hopefully we won't have to deal with WAA stratus / stratocumulus. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Low to mid 80's is about 10 above climo by next week, you are just being ridiculous now.

Yeah your point?  No question its going to be above avg and I'm going to enjoy every minute of my 70's and  a few 80's thrown in.   Normal **** of late in fall.

We can carry on this ridiculous if you have nothing better to do on vacation.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

Yeah your point?  No question its going to be above avg and I'm going to enjoy every minute of my 70's and  a few 80's thrown in.   Normal **** of late in fall.

We can carry on this ridiculous if you have nothing better to do on vacation.

 

 

10 above normal isn't normal climo...

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12 minutes ago, Stebo said:

10 above normal isn't normal climo...

 

fair enough.  this is silly anyways thanks to nitwit RS.  we all know whats capable yet this early in fall and the conditions are ripe to pop off some nice departures.  We haven't been able to run a decent stretch of heat up here so I'll believe more of a pattern change instead of YO-YO temps when its really for real.

have a safe trip back and thanks for sharing the pictures. 

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We're getting into the time of year where the "normal" high is more an average of extremes. While 80s in mid to late Sept. is certainly warm it isn't anything too crazy. The same can now be said for a stretch of temps in the 60s, maybe even 50s up here, especially in late Sept. Neither one of these scenarios would be anything to write home about. It can get pretty chilly this time of year but there can be summer heat too.

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5 minutes ago, roardog said:

We're getting into the time of year where the "normal" high is more an average of extremes. While 80s in mid to late Sept. is certainly warm it isn't anything too crazy. The same can now be said for a stretch of temps in the 60s, maybe even 50s up here, especially in late Sept. Neither one of these scenarios would be anything to write home about. It can get pretty chilly this time of year but there can be summer heat too.

I expect warmth in MI during peak tropical season tbh. Seems more likely when the Atlantic is active like now. Heck, we see a fair amount of 70-ish Halloween's and I've seen mid-70's for gun deer camp in NMI. The real story here is the negative departures in the first 10 days of this month. And it was pretty robust.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, roardog said:

We're getting into the time of year where the "normal" high is more an average of extremes. While 80s in mid to late Sept. is certainly warm it isn't anything too crazy. The same can now be said for a stretch of temps in the 60s, maybe even 50s up here, especially in late Sept. Neither one of these scenarios would be anything to write home about. It can get pretty chilly this time of year but there can be summer heat too.

Definitely true there, I am just glad we are going to go back toward normal maybe slightly above for the month as the cold September scenario has a connection to bad winters. After last winter, I don't want another boring winter again. To be honest it has been a boring 12 months collectively since last Fall.

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5 hours ago, Stebo said:

I wish I had seen this, I would have stopped there instead of in Marquette at Hudson's. I mean the food I had was good, but a bit pricey.

So many great local food stops, hate that you ate at Hudson's. My bad for not thinking soon enough. 

Weather felt like summer today... 81 for a high.  This is probably my second favorite time of the year.  The first, of course, the time after Thanksgiving up until New Years. 

*Edit just to add that my third favorite time of the year would have to be in Spring when I first hear the peepers, through the time the tree's begin to bud out.

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