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September 2017 Discussion


snowlover2

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2 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

And brings a nasty 15 degree below normal shot of air down by mid week next week..or colder!

ecmwf_T850a_us_10.png

Models have overdone cold shots since 2010, when will people learn that...

I just can't see this "cold shot" being that extreme now that the NAO is shifting to positive. It just wouldn't make sense to see a cool September this year unless teleconnections don't matter anymore.

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1 hour ago, rainsucks said:

Models have overdone cold shots since 2010, when will people learn that...

I just can't see this "cold shot" being that extreme now that the NAO is shifting to positive. It just wouldn't make sense to see a cool September this year unless teleconnections don't matter anymore.

They never learn, it is the same thing every fall, every cold snap early in the season is crop killing summer ending.

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3 hours ago, rainsucks said:

Models have overdone cold shots since 2010, when will people learn that...

I just can't see this "cold shot" being that extreme now that the NAO is shifting to positive. It just wouldn't make sense to see a cool September this year unless teleconnections don't matter anymore.

216 hours out isn't that far fetched. 10 years ago, sure... but in 2017, not so much.

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1 hour ago, Jonger said:

216 hours out isn't that far fetched. 10 years ago, sure... but in 2017, not so much.

This summer would have been the coldest on record if the ECMWF had been right the entire time. It isn't just the Euro either the GFS and CMC both have severe cold biases in the medium and long range ,which doesn't really make sense in a warming climate.

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47 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

warminista's never fail either to disappoint on the first page of every new month.

Are you still traumatized after seeing 70 degree temps in February? Also, was there anything I said that was false? Have the models been overdoing cold shots?

ice******* are the ones who deny AGW, so...

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6 hours ago, rainsucks said:

Are you still traumatized after seeing 70 degree temps in February? Also, was there anything I said that was false? Have the models been overdoing cold shots?

ice******* are the ones who deny AGW, so...

Seems your stay here will thankfully be short.    Toodles

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46 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

Jonger...you could be right. All of the global models seemed to be determined to bring down some anomalous cold for later next week. They have been consistent with this for some time. We will see if the doubters are right...or the models....:D

ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

There is a cool snap coming but -15 to -20 is probably not happening. Every fall this happens with the first cold snap, the models assume that it is already into fall and drop the bottom out. By the time this period is realized it will be -5 to -8 departures.

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41 minutes ago, Stebo said:

There is a cool snap coming but -15 to -20 is probably not happening. Every fall this happens with the first cold snap, the models assume that it is already into fall and drop the bottom out. By the time this period is realized it will be -5 to -8 departures.

The EURO has been smoking pretty good **** lately. It's been busting so hard this entire season, ride the GFS. 

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1 hour ago, Jonger said:

We had double digit negative departures on the cold snap this week alone. Lansing had a -11 and -12 departure back to back.

Metro airport always leans warm in the heat island.... the -5 to -8 is probably more likely there.

Just like the GFS/Euro saying that Harvey would go straight into Texas at day 9-10. You have to realize things change in models through time, I mean are you honestly thinking we will be in the low 50s for highs late next week? That is what these models are trying to show.

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