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downeastnc

Hurricane Irma

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Just now, LithiaWx said:

The wind field on Irma has got to be quite wide.  With pressure that low the winds are spread out pretty far if Irma really is only a cat 2 right now.   The NWS wouldn't keep Irma a 3 unless she really was.  There must be higher winds getting picked up somewhere for the justification of the 5pm update. 

The highest surface wind the plane currently out there has found is 107 mph...hell even the FL winds are done quite a bit from earlier today.....its a Cat 2....barely. That said with the pressure as low as it is it could recover quite a bit and quickly so the NHC is smart in leaving it as a Cat 3 since chances are it will be that when it gets to Florida....and calling it what it is right now does nothing but possibly prevent people from doing what they need to do. 

 

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Just now, Buddy said:

I'm just getting back into this stuff (weather in colorado is boring, but back east now), got a link?

 

Several bouys are going up pretty regularly
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?station=mlrf1&meas=wspd&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=vcaf1&meas=wspd&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

have to have google earth ( but who doesnt ) and click on google earth on the right side under live atl recon mapping then click at the bottom when it pulls it up to load it then use the drop down on the left to highlight which mission you wanna see 

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9 minutes ago, 10below said:

Governor Scott just got an update and said winds are up to 135mph now.

He would be wrong.....you know you can check this stuff for yourself....there is a actual hurricane hunter out there right now checking the storm out. The fastest wind it has found so far at the surface is 107 mph. Heck I cant even find FL winds over 120 mph....this is the actual data and its what it shows....maybe he means they expect it to be a 135 mph when it hits Florida that makes much more sense. 

Time:    20:03:00Z
Coordinates:    23.483N 80.467W
Acft. Static Air Press:    695.7 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:    2,735 m (8,973 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:    950.6 mb (28.07 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):    From 83° at 88 kts (From the E at 101.3 mph)
Air Temp:    15.3°C (59.5°F)
Dew Pt:    14.3°C (57.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:    89 kts (102.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:    93 kts (107.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:    9 mm/hr (0.35 in/hr)

 

Here is the actual vortex data message from the last vortex...this was maybe 30-45 mins ago the max surface wind on that leg was lower than the previous vortex even though the pressure was down a MB.

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 92kts (~ 105.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the WNW (294°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 32° at 103kts (From the NNE at ~ 118.5mph)

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So it almost looks like it went SW a touch to match the coast.....watch out Yucatan Irma is never gonna turn, maybe a met can chime in but is the southern half of the rotation being over land and the fact the coast more or less parallels the path help almost to grab Irma and make it harder for her to break away from the frictional forces....or is the path that mimics the coast almost perfectly just insane coincidence.

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

So it almost looks like it went SW a touch to match the coast.....watch out Yucatan Irma is never gonna turn, maybe a met can chime in but is the southern half of the rotation being over land and the fact the coast more or less parallels the path help almost to grab Irma and make it harder for her to break away from the frictional forces....

That would be a jog. It's moving NW.

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5 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

So it almost looks like it went SW a touch to match the coast.....watch out Yucatan Irma is never gonna turn, maybe a met can chime in but is the southern half of the rotation being over land and the fact the coast more or less parallels the path help almost to grab Irma and make it harder for her to break away from the frictional forces....or is the path that mimics the coast almost perfectly just insane coincidence.

I've actually wondered the same.  Is the eye just wobbling along trying to remain over water, with the coast acting like a wall of sorts?  It seems to have wobbled west in the latest frames (and maybe a touch SOUTH), to my eye, just following along the coast.

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This is gonna be bad for the Keys. I hate to see what it will look like in 24 hours. Pressure dropping with warmer waters ahead spells BIG trouble.

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7:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 9
Location: 23.4°N 80.8°W
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 932 mb
Max sustained: 135 mph

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2 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Irma is a long ways south and west. It does make you wonder if she could end up west of Key West even. However Irma looks to become entrained by the encroaching trough at any time now.

I have been thinking the same thing for a day and half now lol...water vapor loop is impressive she really bulled her way west a lot further than it looks like she should be able too....

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4 minutes ago, 10below said:

7:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 9
Location: 23.4°N 80.8°W
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 932 mb
Max sustained: 135 mph

Thats different than the one I see....which is just the same strength as 5pm....this is not even remotely a 135 mph hurricane right now...or a 125 mph cane for that matter

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
700 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

...700 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...

A NDBC C-MAN station on Molasses Reef recently reported sustained
winds of 49 mph (80 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). Marathon
recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to
62 mph (100 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 80.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Onderlinde

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2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

I have been thinking the same thing for a day and half now lol...water vapor loop is impressive she really bulled her way west a lot further than it looks like she should be able too....

Same.  Been rather boggled that she didn't get caught up in the thing earlier, but hey, that's hurricanes. They don't obey our wishes at all (My parents are up 90 miles north of Tampa about 40 miles inland)

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11 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Thats different than the one I see....which is just the same strength as 5pm....this is not even remotely a 135 mph hurricane right now...or a 125 mph cane for that matter

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
700 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

...700 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...

A NDBC C-MAN station on Molasses Reef recently reported sustained
winds of 49 mph (80 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). Marathon
recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to
62 mph (100 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 80.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Onderlinde

This is posted in the main thread as well.

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13 minutes ago, Buddy said:

Same.  Been rather boggled that she didn't get caught up in the thing earlier, but hey, that's hurricanes. They don't obey our wishes at all (My parents are up 90 miles north of Tampa about 40 miles inland)

Warming cloud tops, she has trouble maintaining her flare ups....and a nice warming in the eastern quad not helping...not sure what that is in the center now might be a little dry air......she needs the storms on the SE side to wrap the center....regardless though this is not the behavior of a healthy hurricane....I am surprised she has kept her pressure so low...and honestly her radar presentation isnt horrible all things considered

if anything the IEW has reformed a bit keeping the dual eyes going and this also will prevent her from gaining much ground....that and the entire bottom half of the eye/core is over Cuba....

59b480db2de6d_irmadw.gif.1d1902c6f1d679cc5160c32303fd25e6.gif

 

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3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Looks like the turn to the north is finally about to commence for real.

yeah for the 4th time in the last 6 hrs lol........I wouldnt be surprised if she is east of track once she gets going north....

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12 minutes ago, 10below said:

Bro, you have covered your ass for every possible track. West, East, TS, Cat 1, Cat 4, landfall in Mexico, etc etc etc. :blahblah:

Come on man.  This is getting out of hand.  Nobody should be subjected to this garbage. Downeast in particular is a great poster who has proven over and over again he adds value to this forum.  Please just stop engaging him,  you need to agree to disagree and move on.  Please. 

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