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downeastnc

Hurricane Irma

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2 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

If it were to slow down even more or stall (as we've seen with other Hurricanes) could that have a significant impact on the current track? 

I don't think it makes a big different on the overall storm track. 

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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

Nevermind they are not much better on the east side, highest one on the outbound leg was 101 mph, unless they find some serious wind in the north side Irma is a low end Cat 2 at best....even with a pressure that low, this is what interacting with land does for a cane....if she can keep her pressure low though she should be able to recover quickly but how much is still a ?

Time:    18:34:30Z
Coordinates:    23.133N 79.950W
Acft. Static Air Press:    695.7 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:    2,779 m (9,117 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:    956.1 mb (28.24 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):    From 182° at 84 kts (From the S at 96.7 mph)
Air Temp:    13.7°C* (56.7°F*)
Dew Pt:    -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:    88 kts (101.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:    88 kts (101.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:    14 mm/hr (0.55 in/hr)

I think you were right on track earlier with this. 

Had this bung out in Cuba longer like modeled it would have definitely been a cat 1 and could've went as far as a TS like you said. 

Breaking off sooner has obviously helped prevent further weakening as it's much more organized now.  Will be interesting to see how quick she builds back the intensity. 

Not sure why more don't take your input more serious as you have been as accurate as you can be for something so unpredictable. 

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Just updated the north side on Google earth and overall peak wind looks to be flat still most averaging Cat 1 type winds, wit ha few Cat 2 drops right in the eyewall.... pressure is dropping fast so lets see how the core handles it....crazy but we basically have a 933 mb minimal Cat 2 right now....will be interesting to see what she does next. 

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Snowgoose mentioned early about the wind field decreasing. Even though it's showing 100 mph winds on the recon flights. Its strengthening via satellite.  But at the same time the wind field is increasing again. Especially with the interaction with the front. By 11pm sure the winds will be higher. Not cat 5 though.

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5 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Snowgoose mentioned early about the wind field decreasing. Even though it's showing 100 mph winds on the recon flights. Its strengthening via satellite.  But at the same time the wind field is increasing again. Especially with the interaction with the front. By 11pm sure the winds will be higher. Not cat 5 though.

I think it tops out at 140.  We may see the pressure head fake us for awhile and even go mid 920s by 9-10pm but I think the winds will take forever to respond.  The danger now is if the SW shear doesn't weaken it (which it does not always do) it could be strengthening on approach to landfall and effectively be mixing winds down.

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1 minute ago, FLweather said:

Snowgoose mentioned early about the wind field decreasing. Even though it's showing 100 mph winds on the recon flights. Its strengthening via satellite.  But at the same time the wind field is increasing again. Especially with the interaction with the front. By 11pm sure the winds will be higher. Not cat 5 though.

Well sorta, the winds are actually lower than they were 3-4 hrs ago....they are not finding any surface winds over 100 mph, earlier they had some closer to 120 so its actually weakened a bit more overall. The storms and sat presentation are better and the pressure is dropping so she is better organized than earlier, but she gains nothing because half her core is over land....she is basically just maintaining her status quo or only slowly weakening....we will see if there is any wind increases in the next pass. 

Think of it like this if she was over open ocean and not losing anything to land friction then with the appearance she has there would be little doubt she is strengthening however since her core winds loses energy going over Cuba instead of strengthening she is just dumping the increase energy from the storms into maintaining what she has.....if she holds this flare up till she breaks free from Cuba she probably will ramp up how much though is tough to predict. 

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No 5pm update yet....interesting probably deciding how to play the current winds dont want to downplay it to much but cant outright lie either....

Nevermind left them at 125....

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Wow,  FFC is painting a nasty picture for my area.  Wind gusts to 70mph in west central GA.  3-7" of rain and tornadoes too.  One hell of a storm headed this way. 

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2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

5pm says winds still 125 Cat 3 pressure at 933 moving wnw at 9   ;) 

Probably the smart move even though there was not a single drop over 101 mph at the surface so far....still wind at FL are strong and the NE wind field is large...she needs to get rid of whats left of the IEW and then let the cards fall where they may, if she can contract the wind field and tighten up the OEW she can get 140 again.... 

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3 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Downeast she is free from Cuba been so the last hour or two

 

Hurricanes are more than just the eye.....and the southern part of the eye is still onshore

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4 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Probably the smart move even though there was not a single drop over 101 mph at the surface so far....still wind at FL are strong and the NE wind field is large...she needs to get rid of whats left of the IEW and then let the cards fall where they may, if she can contract the wind field and tighten up the OEW she can get 140 again.... 

She's had it for the looongest time   :lol:    Who was it that said we could see a Cat 4 within a Cat 2 within a TS?   Irma has done her best to maintain these entities :lol: 

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3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

She's had it for the looongest time   :lol:    Who was it that said we could see a Cat 4 within a Cat 2 within a TS?   Irma has done her best to maintain these entities :lol: 

:clap:

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@snowgoose you think so? So you saying if this storm strengthens it would effectively strengthen the ridge above the storm to shunt off the shear to a certain extent? What about the trough and high pessure above to coexist as to act as a catalyst for further strengthening for a board scale not cat scale?

 

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11 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

She's had it for the looongest time   :lol:    Who was it that said we could see a Cat 4 within a Cat 2 within a TS?   Irma has done her best to maintain these entities :lol: 

I watch this loop and I cant help but wonder if you guys may be more in the woods than you think.....or should I say as the NHC thinks

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

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Sorry guys.  I've been off the grid since last night.  I should have known if I didn't put 10below and downeast in their crates they would run all over the thread.

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1 minute ago, jburns said:

Sorry guys.  I've been off the grid since last night.  I should have known if I didn't put 10below and downeast in their crates they would run all over the thread.

You hurt my feelings Burns I have been good I just dont deal with people saying stuff without backing it up.....

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4 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

I watch this loop and I cant help but wonder if you guys may be more in the woods than you think.....or should I say as the NHC thinks

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

I'm as prepared as I can be. ;)   No mandatory evacuation on Lady's Island or St Helena Island so I'm probably going to stay.

 

These little wobbles are killing me   :lol: 

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her wind field is very flat,by that I mean there isnt a lot of difference between drops 40-50 miles from the center and the eyewall.........this will pose issues to her trying to ramp back up....if the IEW will just go away she has a chance but until that happens the wind field wont tighten and even with the lower pressure she will struggle to get back to her former glory. This drop is close to the center based on pressure and in the eyewall for sure and well if anything it looks like her winds continue to maintain at best on the west side.....cloud tops are warming a bit as well. Should have a center fix in a second....

Time:    21:40:00Z
Coordinates:    23.400N 80.867W
Acft. Static Air Press:    696.8 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:    2,718 m (8,917 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:    949.2 mb (28.03 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):    From 23° at 85 kts (From the NNE at 97.8 mph)
Air Temp:    15.9°C (60.6°F)
Dew Pt:    14.0°C (57.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:    86 kts (99.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:    90 kts (103.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:    6 mm/hr (0.24 in/hr)

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Anyone have another source for the dropsonde data for Irma Mission 27? There are several dropsondes locations on tropicaltidbits but no dropsonde graphs (or does it just take longer for them to gen?)  Tried three web browsers some of them have the image place holders and 404.

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I use the google earth overlay its slower than realtime but its point and click and easy to use....

Has anyone ever heard of a storm with pressures in the low 930's that only has 100 mph max winds...might be the first time its ever been documented....

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Just now, downeastnc said:

Places in south Florida gusting to 50-70 already in the heavier storms.....

The wind field on Irma has got to be quite wide.  With pressure that low the winds are spread out pretty far if Irma really is only a cat 2 right now.   The NWS wouldn't keep Irma a 3 unless she really was.  There must be higher winds getting picked up somewhere for the justification of the 5pm update. 

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