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downeastnc

Hurricane Irma

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12 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Lets see if this is another bounce off the coast like she did last night and then wobbles back west or if this is her new heading, if its a actual direction change its probably worse case for Florida....this lets her get away from the coast and have the most time over water before the shear picks up....however this heading would put her more inline for a landfall farther east and put Islamorada and Key Largo in the east eyewall....heck she could even go more north and really screw Miami up like the models had a few days ago...but it would lessen the threat up the west coast of Florida a lot...its almost like she is a living thing fighting to stay off the coast and survive. 

That's what Hurricane's do. 

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8 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

you watch this loop and see how her outflow flattens out on the NW side where the strong SW shear is and you got to wonder how the heck she is gonna make it much further west.....the interaction with Cuba may have weakened her enough to prevent her from being able to push her way as far west as models have her going...and we may see a bit sharper north turn...shear is close as is dry air her best bet is to run N/NE 

wg8shr.GIF.e8d75a5a27e19d521d2d1a4b1d85b56a.GIF

 

TBH watching the shear maps and wondering when the turn would start.  UKM/ECMWF have been forecasting a sharp knee for days now, and we're approaching the near window for that, no?  As the eye comes off the coast of Cuba it DOES appear to get a bit of intensification going for a couple frames but the next few frames will tell the tale.

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1 minute ago, Buddy said:

TBH watching the shear maps and wondering when the turn would start.  UKM/ECMWF have been forecasting a sharp knee for days now, and we're approaching the near window for that, no?  As the eye comes off the coast of Cuba it DOES appear to get a bit of intensification going for a couple frames but the next few frames will tell the tale.

She will never recover the entire circulation the damage is done, but she could reform as a small intense hurricane and even be Cat 4/5 but luckily she will probably have a much smaller wind field. what Florida needs is a ERC in 6-8 hrs that would probably save them from a Cat 4/5 hit, already looks like a west wobble again....

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3 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

She will never recover the entire circulation the damage is done, but she could reform as a small intense hurricane and even be Cat 4/5 but luckily she will probably have a much smaller wind field. what Florida needs is a ERC in 6-8 hrs that would probably save them from a Cat 4/5 hit, already looks like a west wobble again....

Back to 150kts? I think its probably unlikely given the sheer she's running into, but, CERTAINLY intensifying 
avn_lalo-animated.gif
Edit: odd, go direct to the image here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif

The post image is showing almost the exact inverse of what the direct link shows.  Maybe its a browser cache thing on my end or something, but shes past Lat80 and showing much more red in real time.

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

She will never recover the entire circulation the damage is done, but she could reform as a small intense hurricane and even be Cat 4/5 but luckily she will probably have a much smaller wind field. what Florida needs is a ERC in 6-8 hrs that would probably save them from a Cat 4/5 hit, already looks like a west wobble again....

Whuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut?

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Just now, 10below said:

Whuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut?

What confused you.....post like the above are pretty pointless if you want to discuss the storm and what it is may or may not be doing lets do it but come on next time you start to make a post like the one above......just stop. 

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

What confused you.....post like the above are pretty pointless if you want to discuss the storm and what it is may or may not be doing lets do it but come on next time you start to make a post like the one above......just stop. 

It confuses me because you flip flopped. 2 hours ago you said it would be a Cat 1 or TS when it hit Florida.

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4 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

She will never recover the entire circulation the damage is done, but she could reform as a small intense hurricane and even be Cat 4/5 but luckily she will probably have a much smaller wind field. what Florida needs is a ERC in 6-8 hrs that would probably save them from a Cat 4/5 hit, already looks like a west wobble again....

I think it can make 4 or 5 again but I tend to agree on the wind field.  I don't think this will be anywhere near as big as initially thought at least for hurricane force winds any longer.  I'm surprised though how much improved looking it is in the last 2 hours.  While I did anticipate it would weaken 25 mph or so over land I didn't think it would look that beat up as it was about to come off 

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Just now, 10below said:

It confuses me because you flip flopped. 2 hours ago you said it would be a Cat or TS when it hit Florida.

No actually I never said that.....go back and read carefully......

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I think it can make 4 or 5 again but I tend to agree on the wind field.  I don't think this will be anywhere near as big as initially thought at least for hurricane force winds any longer.  I'm surprised though how much improved looking it is in the last 2 hours.  While I did anticipate it would weaken 25 mph or so over land I didn't think it would look that beat up as it was about to come off 

She really does look good all things considered, I also am surprised she has flared up so nicely in the last few hrs, she probable actually has winds to match her Cat now....as long as she protects the inner core anything is possible but the chances she reclaims her pre Cuba glory is slim to none, that shear is :yikes:and once that starts to work on her its a wrap. Still look at the havoc Charley and his small intense core wreaked on Florida....it does however make you think the higher wind predicted well inlands are much less likely. Then again who knows she could stall and go nuts for 10 hrs and destroy all of Florida.

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

She really does look good all things considered, I also am surprised she has flared up so nicely in the last few hrs, she probable actually has winds to match her Cat now....as long as she protects the inner core anything is possible but the chances she reclaims her pre Cuba glory is slim to none, that shear is :yikes:and once that starts to work on her its a wrap. Still look at the havoc Charley and his small intense core wreaked on Florida....it does however make you think the higher wind predicted well inlands are much less likely. Then again who knows she could stall and go nuts for 10 hrs and destroy all of Florida.

Indeed, watch the entire last 48, and, well, lotta steam lost. (VMAX on that image is quite interesting too, espec how quickly she gains/loses steam)
last48hrs.gif

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Plane is on the way in now, probably gonna find some 110-120+ mph winds right on the center....maybe a bit higher if she can maintain these storms ( tough to do with half of them over land) then who knows...she needs to get away from Cuba....her storms only go out 50 miles on the west side versus 120 miles on the east that actually sucks for Florida on the forecasted track but by the same token if she drags the east side up the coast of Florida she will weaken quite a bit....she is only 140-150 miles from the Keys....she also looks to be speeding up a tiny bit but it could just be the center wobbling. 

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I agree Buddy. Def has a more northerly component to her track. Satellite image shows improve. But another hour or so she should break away from the coastline. Then the eye wall be over open waters.

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18 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

The Euro sounds concerning for the panhandle based on the main forum thread.  Anyone got any updates on it?

Comes northwest to right over the Keys, then NNNW to a landfall north of Tampa, then  a hard NW turn to northern AL....shear is 30-50 knts though up that way so the storm would be getting hammered...it drags the east side right up the west coast of Florida, but shear kicks in north of Naples and its 30-50 knt so who knows what she will be like by the time she gets to the Big Bend.... Euro has it in Arkansas in 96 hrs lol....then loses it at 120...

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Drop in the NW eyewall with the highest surface wind was this drop..so she looks to at least be maintaining and not losing much more strength....not much different than the drops before the last plane left a few hrs ago....I bet the E side has better winds and the center pressure is probably around 935-940 MB...

Time:    18:28:00Z
Coordinates:    23.233N 80.400W
Acft. Static Air Press:    696.9 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:    2,715 m (8,907 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:    948.8 mb (28.02 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):    From 28° at 90 kts (From the NNE at 103.6 mph)
Air Temp:    16.4°C (61.5°F)
Dew Pt:    13.3°C (55.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:    91 kts (104.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:    82 kts (94.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:    3 mm/hr (0.12 in/hr)

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East side looks to have low end category 2 winds. North is not sampled yet and very likely where the strongest winds are so I'd still assume it's a 3 for now, especially with that pressure (939mb).

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Nevermind they are not much better on the east side, highest one on the outbound leg was 101 mph, unless they find some serious wind in the north side Irma is a low end Cat 2 at best....even with a pressure that low, this is what interacting with land does for a cane....if she can keep her pressure low though she should be able to recover quickly but how much is still a ?

Time:    18:34:30Z
Coordinates:    23.133N 79.950W
Acft. Static Air Press:    695.7 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:    2,779 m (9,117 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:    956.1 mb (28.24 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):    From 182° at 84 kts (From the S at 96.7 mph)
Air Temp:    13.7°C* (56.7°F*)
Dew Pt:    -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:    88 kts (101.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:    88 kts (101.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:    14 mm/hr (0.55 in/hr)

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The eye of Irma is finally away from Cuba's coastline. Without a doubt she is moving north-northwest now towards the FL Keys.

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It really is a shame this thing didn't go down the spine of Cuba and get ripped to shreds. A Cat 3 or 4 storm is still no walk in the park for those affected. Let's see what she does now off the coast.

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Irma is raging again. She looks to be ramping back up on radar. I think all that ish downeast talked about her pissed her off. Cat 4 here she comes again.

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4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

One thing is that this storm is a slow moving storm. A lot of rainfall will be coming down. 

If it were to slow down even more or stall (as we've seen with other Hurricanes) could that have a significant impact on the current track? 

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