Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    kgottwald
    Newest Member
    kgottwald
    Joined
downeastnc

Hurricane Irma

Recommended Posts

Just now, Cold Rain said:

IR presentation has definitely become more impressive the last little bit.  Seems like the weakening has halted for a while.

Yeah inner core holding its own..... she needs to move almost due NNW at this point to get away from the coast though....and if she does do that kind of motion I wonder how much east she can actually be when she gets to Florida....she is just now getting south of Miami. Its crazy watching the center just follow along the coastline exactly....still 6-10 more hrs this close to land and she will only weaken more....

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah inner core holding its own..... she needs to move almost due NNW at this point to get away from the coast though....and if she does do that kind of motion I wonder how much east she can actually be when she gets to Florida....she is just now getting south of Miami. Its crazy watching the center just follow along the coastline exactly....still 6-10 more hrs this close to land and she will only weaken more....

Wobbles will start to matter.  If she pulls off the coast just a bit it could be off to the races. If she wobbles south or stays west then she will continue to struggle against Cuba.  Unless she really slams Cuba I fear the core is going to be just fine and will take advantage of low shear and jet fuel ocean water for a period of 12 hours or so. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, LithiaWx said:

I'm pretty excited about the prospects of what could happen here in N. Ga. too, but c'mon, a tropical depression is not going to send Atlanta into a disaster.  There'll probably be some power outages and trees down if the models hold true, but disaster?  C'mon.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, audioguy3107 said:

I'm pretty excited about the prospects of what could happen here in N. Ga. too, but c'mon, a tropical depression is not going to send Atlanta into a disaster.  There'll probably be some power outages and trees down if the models hold true, but disaster?  C'mon.

Opal in 1995 was a disaster here in Atlanta.  The amount of property damage from the tress that fell was very costly.  Thousands of trees and power lines went down in the metro.  Schools were closed for a few days afterwards. It was bad bro. 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Opal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow I missed some fireworks while on my long run this morning. Not going to rehash things except to say I'm firmly on team downeast here. Storm has that asymmetrical look they get on the east coast a lot and max winds (that I've ever seen) with that kind of structure are like 120ish. I suppose there's some small chance it can rebuild its structure but that seems like a daunting task. It has 24 hours, shear will be increasing, and outside of the inner core the west side of the storm is basically missing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Opal in 1995 was a disaster here in Atlanta.  The amount of property damage from the tress that fell was very costly.  Thousands of trees and power lines went down in the metro.  Schools were closed for a few days afterwards. It was bad bro. 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Opal

I know, I was here, I guess it depends on what you're definition of disaster is.  Disaster to me is Hurricane Katrina, Moore, Oklahoma, Harvey, Sandy, et. al.  I don't think the metro Atlanta community considers Opal a disaster, heck, I'd be willing to bet if you asked 100 people if they remember Hurricane Opal's remnants and what happened, most couldn't.  Anyhoo, what we should be paying attention to here in N. Georgia is how far north Irma can make it before going on shore......the more west, the less time for weakening as it moves into our area.  If you take a look at NHC's 11 AM track, it's not inconceivable that Irma could stay over the Gulf until she's north of Tampa!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, franklin NCwx said:

That happened up here too. 

Yeah I remembered that storm well. We had a ton of rainfall and the rivers flooded a lot. Currently it looks like our rainfall number have been going to a lot as the storm looks to move further west from us. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah I remembered that storm well. We had a ton of rainfall and the rivers flooded a lot. Currently it looks like our rainfall number have been going to a lot as the storm looks to move further west from us. 

90 mph gusts , as the Euro has been showing the last few runs, would be a disaster for ATL and NGa, IMO 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

90 mph gusts , as the Euro has been showing the last few runs, would be a disaster for ATL and NGa, IMO 

Oh yeah no doubt it would be. Talking about here in the mountains currently the rainfall for us seems to be trending down according to the latest GFS run. The winds look pretty strong up here also. 50 to 60 MPH. Still this storm has a long way to go. We could have good trends and some bad trends. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

She is going to go beast mode before land fall. 175 MPH per GFS.  

Oh no! That's catastrophic, if it were to be right! Especially with everyone saying its " only" going to be a cat 3 at landfall! And the stronger it gets before landfall, should translate to stronger winds for us down the line!?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

She is going to go beast mode before land fall. 175 MPH per GFS.  

Yeah it seems like according to the GFS rapid strengthening is going to take place. You can already see that as the center moves off the coast of Cuba. Also to note the Euro had Irma going further into Cuba but as we are seeing that is wrong. will be very interesting with the next euro update coming out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Oh no! That's catastrophic, if it were to be right! Especially with everyone saying its " only" going to be a cat 3 at landfall! And the stronger it gets before landfall, should translate to stronger winds for us down the line!?

Still a long way to go... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Opal in 1995 was a disaster here in Atlanta.  The amount of property damage from the tress that fell was very costly.  Thousands of trees and power lines went down in the metro.  Schools were closed for a few days afterwards. It was bad bro. 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Opal

If Irma can recover and she can stay west of Florida and hit up north then you will have issues Opal was going 25 mph at landfall so she got up to ATL quick, wind gust in the ATL metro where low to mid 50's so it doesnt take much wind to drop a lot of trees. The high in the NE is a interesting factor and its hard to tell just how much it will pack the gradient. 

She looks to be going NNW at the moment and this is even sooner than the models predicted if this isnt a wobble then this will give her a chance at Cat 4 again...if she gets a more N than W component in her track now that might but S FL and Miami back in danger of getting east side of the eye. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure if it's wobbling or starting a turn more towards the north. But a new eye forming north away from Cuba's coast line.

Screenshot_2017-09-09-12-53-30.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lets see if this is another bounce off the coast like she did last night and then wobbles back west or if this is her new heading, if its a actual direction change its probably worse case for Florida....this lets her get away from the coast and have the most time over water before the shear picks up....however this heading would put her more inline for a landfall farther east and put Islamorada and Key Largo in the east eyewall....heck she could even go more north and really screw Miami up like the models had a few days ago...but it would lessen the threat up the west coast of Florida a lot...its almost like she is a living thing fighting to stay off the coast and survive. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Buddy said:

Turning? Or a wobble? hifloat5_None_anim.gif

you watch this loop and see how her outflow flattens out on the NW side where the strong SW shear is and you got to wonder how the heck she is gonna make it much further west.....the interaction with Cuba may have weakened her enough to prevent her from being able to push her way as far west as models have her going...and we may see a bit sharper north turn...shear is close as is dry air her best bet is to run N/NE 

wg8shr.GIF.e8d75a5a27e19d521d2d1a4b1d85b56a.GIF

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×