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Hurricane Irma

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Just now, JoshM said:

Friends don't let friends get NAM'd. In fact, we need a support group in the winter time for people who were NAM'd.

I'm not getting NAM'd I'm just hoping against hope!!!

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1 minute ago, Wow said:

Yep, the return of the idea that the trough will hang back and pull Irma out the sea.

Then people on the outer banks have to evacuate, that'll be fun. I'm sure we're in for some more changes as we approach the 11th hour.

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1 minute ago, Wow said:

Yep, the return of the idea that the trough will hang back and pull Irma out the sea.

Must be really hanging back.  That's a magnificently huge jump from one run to the next and a strong departure from all other guidance.

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8 minutes ago, bigjohndc said:

Some of that was true over the weekend not now, but the post you quoted was from August 31st its September 7th. Just so you know Randolph County is reporting no public or public safety shortages.

The frustration and why this is important for Irma is there are plenty of people that will need gas in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. If people panic buy thinking there is a shortage it can actually tighten supply for the people that need it. Especially if delivery is impacted by power loss or roads are impassable after the storm. 

Awesome news. Never check a public reporting of shortages, never occured to look for one. Just going by the yellow bags on the pumps. Maybe it's just a hiccup from what happened this weekend. 

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Just now, Cold Rain said:

Must be really hanging back.  That's a magnificently huge jump from one run to the next and a strong departure from all other guidance.

We're going into NAM la la land by the time it starts doing the insanity.

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Just now, JoshM said:

Superman couldn't make that kinda jump.

Lol That run just came out of nowhere. Do I trust the NAM? No but obviously there still is a small percentage that this could just be pulled away much further north and out to sea.

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Talking about a huge swing... got a gut feeling some other models will come back east.. There is so much going on its a models night mare it's like they are batting blind folded. . This is going to be another now cast storm

Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Lol That run just came out of nowhere. Do I trust the NAM? No but obviously there still is a small percentage that this could just be pulled away much further north and out to sea.

I don't know, I've seen a lot of crazy NAM runs totally out of line with other guidance. Can't say I ever remember any of them turning out to be right.

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If the models have the trough and ridge wrong it should start to really show up on the 00Z runs, we are into nowcasting time really, how Irma moves the next 12-24 hrs will decide where she goes....The NAM is probably a touch overdone with holding the trough back but it could also be the first of the models to correct back east if its even half right with the trough....also look for a decrease in forward speed that will indicate the turn is about to happen....

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As bad as the NAM is, it's pretty good inside 50 hours picking up on what is happening in the upper level.

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2 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

I don't know, I've seen a lot of crazy NAM runs totally out of line with other guidance. Can't say I ever remember any of them turning out to be right.

last january, first to latch on to our sleet storm from hell when other guidance showed 10" of snow.

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14 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Must be really hanging back.  That's a magnificently huge jump from one run to the next and a strong departure from all other guidance.

It's why Im still a little leery of the farther west options.

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22 minutes ago, griteater said:

As of 11AM today, Irma had 185mph winds for 37 hours, longest any cyclone around the globe has maintained that intensity on record.  Previous record was Haiyan in the W Pacific at 24 hours.  And as of 5PM, Irma had been a CAT 5 storm for 66 consecutive hours.  Satellite era (1966) record for Atlantic was 42 hours (Hurricanes Mitch and David).  Info from @philklotzbach.  

Irma is going to have one heck of a storm surge given the strong winds, long build up of waters, and large size.

Thanks grit. It's obliterating those past records! BTW, saw that Patricia from 2015 was the most intense ever recorded in Atlantic Basin. Lowest pressure was 872 and sustained winds of 215!!! I had forgotten about her. 

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4 minutes ago, Wow said:

It's why Im still a little leery of the farther west options.

GSP did say this track that has been forecasted basically has no precedent.

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Really confused. The updates I'm seeing on TV seem to have shifted considerably west (as it approaches the Carolinas) thru Georgia and up into TN, yet I'm seeing posts here saying the complete opposite, and the outer banks more threatened?

What am I missing?

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1 minute ago, QC_Halo said:

Really confused. The updates I'm seeing on TV seem to have shifted considerably west (as it approaches the Carolinas) thru Georgia and up into TN, yet I'm seeing posts here saying the complete opposite, and the outer banks. 

What am I missing?

The NAM just came in with an oddball way east run.

 

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1 minute ago, QC_Halo said:

Really confused. The updates I'm seeing on TV seem to have shifted considerably west (as it approaches the Carolinas) thru Georgia and up into TN, yet I'm seeing posts here saying the complete opposite, and the outer banks. 

What am I missing?

The NAM came back east...that is all, and its the NAM but it could also be picking up on something with the trough hanging in longer and that could shift the track more east...

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1 minute ago, QC_Halo said:

Really confused. The updates I'm seeing on TV seem to have shifted considerably west (as it approaches the Carolinas) thru Georgia and up into TN, yet I'm seeing posts here saying the complete opposite, and the outer banks. 

What am I missing?

One Model the NAM is showing a eastward move off the coast of FLA. and up the coast to Outer banks of NC . Not the most reliable model for hurricanes 

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3 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

Really confused. The updates I'm seeing on TV seem to have shifted considerably west (as it approaches the Carolinas) thru Georgia and up into TN, yet I'm seeing posts here saying the complete opposite, and the outer banks more threatened?

What am I missing?

500mb Trough in NE is deeper and grabs Irma

 

SLvKGOd.png

 

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