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Hurricane Irma

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11 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Interesting if she stayed that north of track for another 12 hrs it might actually start the models shifting back east....whats the link for where this came from I see CIMSS but I cant find it.

Not sure that I'd agree with that. Looks like an immediate wobble and then stays parallel to the track. Still seems the timing and magnitude of the turn north is key for where she winds up.

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I'm new to this I'm trying to find most updated models anyone mind posting a link where I can find most updated models. 


Use Tropical Tidbits. Just google it and it will pop up. It's a free site and then you can see all the different models


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6 minutes ago, gman said:

A track through northeastern Georgia, would be much worse for the Upstate than if it went right over us, right? 

Yes I'm on the fence about leaving. If it keeps this current track I don't see the point. Me and the wife stay in West Ashley we bunkered in last year!!

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35 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

A lot of NC may not even get any rain from it. Lol


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If on east side of Low pressure Windy ,and rain buckets. lots of moisture riding up the chain.

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11 minutes ago, alhooks13 said:

Not sure that I'd agree with that. Looks like an immediate wobble and then stays parallel to the track. Still seems the timing and magnitude of the turn north is key for where she winds up.

The 00Z GFS last night ran it all the way to Miami then all the way to the SC/NC border...so in that sense it could get that far west and still go farther north, but in general the more west she tracks the more likely a GA hit is, if she ducks south of track and takes a more west heading close to Cuba then she wont feel the trough as much and be able to get south of Florida then turn up like the Euro had..and if she stays on her current heading or wobbles north then she probably turns father east and increase the chances of a Charleston to Wilmington landfall.

I feel pretty strongly that she will turn north close to Florida but if you consider it could be 50 miles either side of that point you get a 100 mile wide spread, that will have pretty big implications on the weather from Florida on north. The NHC track has Irma 120 miles SW of Andros island when she turns....if she stay on the current heading she would make the turn over Andros island thats a pretty big difference...

We will learn a lot I think over the next 12-24 hrs as to where she is going....

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I'm hearing that the NHC is gonna shift a little at that 1 euro run?  They are really hugging the euro. Hope people don't let down their guards. 

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If on east side of Low pressure Windy ,and rain buckets. lots of moisture riding up the chain.


That could be correct? depends on how quick it weakens and dissipates I'm sure it will change many times before Monday one way or the other


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11 minutes ago, Regan said:

I'm hearing that the NHC is gonna shift a little at that 1 euro run?  They are really hugging the euro. Hope people don't let down their guards. 

5PM Discussion

"The forecast track for the first 2 days was adjusted a little bit to the south given that the ridge to the north continues to be strong, and the ECMWF and HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) models have shifted southward a little bit. These two models have been performing very well during Irma.  This adjustment also results in a westward shift of the track near Florida and northward."

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

5PM Discussion

"The forecast track for the first 2 days was adjusted a little bit to the south given that the ridge to the north continues to be strong, and the ECMWF and HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) models have shifted southward a little bit. These two models have been performing very well during Irma.  This adjustment also results in a westward shift of the track near Florida and northward."

Twc says it's not a significant shift so we need to make sure we keep it together. The cone will possibly move again and it could be east. 

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30 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

For what it is worth the NAM brush the east coast of FL and rides up the coast a lot like the GFS did on its 12z run.

Huh?  This is Hour 84

 

sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

 

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24 minutes ago, Regan said:

Twc says it's not a significant shift so we need to make sure we keep it together. The cone will possibly move again and it could be east. 

NHC sticking to their guns as far as a landfall south of Miami.

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1 minute ago, senc30 said:

18Z GFS is starting. Let's see if it throws a wrench in things.

Yeah. Im curious about that too.  I think I'll wait for the 00z like Allan suggested. People were asking if we are ok in Nc nownand he said not to let your guards down and hold on for the 00z. I'd say that's good advice. 

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19 hours ago, UpStateCAD said:

Buckeye.   I have a place on Fripp Island that took significant damage last year with Matthew.  Basically the eye wall tan right into Harbor And Fripp Islands.  It was a category 2 at best at low tide and did tremendous damage out our way. 

This area is extremely low.  Look at the tidal flood maps.   The entire area is under water with a category 3.  Look up the deveatstion of the 1893 hurricane in the area.  Over 3000 killed.  

Watch this storm carefully and get out if the current trends continue. 

I'm watching :)  Thanks for the info!  I still can't believe all the damage still from Matthew :(  

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