lj0109 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Even if it is more NW right now that doesnt automatically mean it cant go way west later since a lot of that has to do with the little finger ridge the models have been showing up over central Florida....that wont happen till a little later....however the models that have that finger ridge weaker thus allowing a more NE track int eh Bahamas also have the center stay on the north side or barely in the north Turks and Caicos. Then again the 00Z GFS ran a SC/NC landfall and had the sharp west turn then sharp north turn in the Bahamas and basically a hit for Miami because it held the trough back longer....so really there are to many things for the models to get right to put much stock in any given run IMO... Agreed! Also that shortwave dropping out of the plains to the SE will be another critical player in all this with its influence pulling the storm back NW late in the period on approach to GA/SC/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: GFS is a tick west at 78 Yeah was just going to post that. Just a hair but would make a larger impact on the FL coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 This is the most west vs. the last four run runs, for what it's worth. It's amazing how such a tiny difference can have such a huge impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Looks like a NW movement right into the GA/SC boarder at around hour 99. Well into the GA coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Looking like a bad run for Savannah area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: This is the most west vs. the last four run runs, for what it's worth. It's amazing how such a tiny difference can have such a huge impact. Which is why its almost useless to watch every run and or believe any given run is right....about the only thing we can be sure of at this stage is this is most likely going to get very close to SE Florida.....but even then a 50 mile difference in center location means the difference between Cat 4/5 winds and Cat 1/2 winds or even if cane winds get on the immediate coast....this thing is still 2.5 days from hitting Florida and so much about how these parts all interact is unknown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The center looks to ride the GA/SC boarder inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 It seems to slow down some the more inland she comes. A lot of rainfall for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The center looks to ride the GA/SC boarder inland. Savannah is crushed before it heads our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 35 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: its a thing of beauty... all 3 hurricanes and what ever may become of what's behind Jose, those in the Caribbean might not even know what's coming their way with Jose if power and communications out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, franklin NCwx said: Savannah is crushed before it heads our way. Yeah no kidding. Not a good look for that area but only one run out of many. As we have seen these slight changes to the east/west means a great deal when it comes to coastal impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On a side note while wait and watch next several days. Can I get an Amen on today's weather. It don't get no better than full sun temps in the 60s and nice breeze out of the north, unless theres frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The center looks to ride the GA/SC boarder inland. Yeah..bad run for savannah, lower sc. Ends up taking the eye pretty much over me..so some very high winds would be an issue here for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Actually look again the rainfall more inland does not look that bad for a major hurricane making impact, at least further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Yeah no kidding. Not a good look for that area but only one run out of many. As we have seen these slight changes to the east/west means a great deal when it comes to coastal impacts. This se Florida hit, the second landfall GA/SC line has been showing up alot on various models for past couple days. Nhc cone has this scenerio for this reason. So in model war/ world it appears most highly likely outcome atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Lookout said: Yeah..bad run for savannah, lower sc. Ends up taking the eye pretty much over me..so some very high winds would be an issue here for sure. Yeah the center virtually does go right over you. That would be a wild windy rainy ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, NCSNOW said: This se Florida hit, the second landfall GA/SC line has been showing up alot on various models for past couple days. Nhc cone has this scenerio for this reason. So in model war/ world it appears most highly likely outcome atm. I agree. We have been basically seeing this on and off for the past several days. The models always seem to come back to this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Here's the thing, the actual Irma track (red X's) has been verifying to the south of the GFS forecasted positions (AVN in image below). Same for HWRF. Euro has been more accurate. That gives credence to the 12z westward adjustment on the GFS with a track closer to the FL east coast. Savannah to Charleston in the cross hairs at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 12z UKMet takes Irma into the Keys and then up thru the gut of FL, then thru Savannah area. I know I've seen a SW bias with the UKMet in yrs past....may be seeing a little of that here too.....but important to note that it's not, for example, east of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Miami to the Savannah and Charleston area have been showing up for the past couple of days on the models. I think we have our track. Of course, Irma could have other ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Miami to the Savannah and Charleston area have been showing up for the past couple of days on the models. I think we have our track. Of course, Irma could have other ideas. Exactly, it would foolish to say, this is exactly what will happen. Models have been known to be wrong and as said before, a 50 mile track difference can mean the difference between tropic storm winds and cat 3 or 4 winds. Anyone from Fla to the outer banks needs to be watching and planning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 If you're thinking about doing your prep work even far away from the current projected path, you might want to start now. Stores here in the Clayton/Smithfield area are already out of bread and water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah the center virtually does go right over you. That would be a wild windy rainy ride. Sure would...as well as for all of northeast ga and the upstate. Gfs showing 70 to 75 mph gusts for pretty much all of the upstate/ne ga...and as i've said before i wonder if there would be some possible enhancement to the winds in ne ga/upstate due to the mountains for a time from a track such as that. Gfs showing close to hurricane force winds just off the surface area wide on soundings. About the worst case scenario for ga and sc though as This run keeps irma just off the coast of florida so there isn't much weakening. It's close to the track i've wondered about since i was a 5 year old weenie lol...but considering that power outages will be so widespread...there is a real possibility of not having power for a few days...or worse. I have a generator but that is still not something i would look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Lookout said: Sure would...as well as for all of northeast ga and the upstate. Gfs showing 70 to 75 mph gusts for pretty much all of the upstate/ne ga...and as i've said before i wonder if there would be some possible enhancement to the winds in ne ga/upstate due to the mountains for a time from a track such as that. Gfs showing close to hurricane force winds just off the surface area wide on soundings. About the worst case scenario for ga and sc though as This run keeps irma just off the coast of florida so there isn't much weakening. It's close to the track i've wondered about since i was a 5 year old weenie lol...but considering that power outages will be so widespread...there is a real possibility of not having power for a few days...or worse. I have a generator but that is still not something i would look forward to. Oh no doubt there would be wind enhancement with the mountains in that area and ours. Im sure you would get some localized wind gusts that might be 75 mph plus. The mountains would act like a funnel for something like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Lookout said: Sure would...as well as for all of northeast ga and the upstate. Gfs showing 70 to 75 mph gusts for pretty much all of the upstate/ne ga...and as i've said before i wonder if there would be some possible enhancement to the winds in ne ga/upstate due to the mountains for a time from a track such as that. Gfs showing close to hurricane force winds just off the surface area wide on soundings. About the worst case scenario for ga and sc though as This run keeps irma just off the coast of florida so there isn't much weakening. It's close to the track i've wondered about since i was a 5 year old weenie lol...but considering that power outages will be so widespread...there is a real possibility of not having power for a few days...or worse. I have a generator but that is still not something i would look forward to. What are your thoughts on Atlanta in general with regard to Irma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Lookout said: Sure would...as well as for all of northeast ga and the upstate. Gfs showing 70 to 75 mph gusts for pretty much all of the upstate/ne ga...and as i've said before i wonder if there would be some possible enhancement to the winds in ne ga/upstate due to the mountains for a time from a track such as that. Gfs showing close to hurricane force winds just off the surface area wide on soundings. About the worst case scenario for ga and sc though as This run keeps irma just off the coast of florida so there isn't much weakening. It's close to the track i've wondered about since i was a 5 year old weenie lol...but considering that power outages will be so widespread...there is a real possibility of not having power for a few days...or worse. I have a generator but that is still not something i would look forward to. No kidding. But I'm interested in why the projected rainfall isn't heavier than it is. 4-5 inches in a 48-hour period isn't anything to sneeze at, but it seems like we've gotten more from even minor tropical systems passing through (not that I'm complaining). I assume it's just the speed of the system combined with how quickly it's weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Sorry for the OT post, but curious why we havent heard from Matthew East on this? Come to think of it I havent seen his posts in a long while. Did I miss something or does he usually just hang around in winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Pretty crazy wind gust map. The ECMWF is even wilder. On another note, there seems to be some thinking that the solar flare could weaken Irma beginning tomorrow. That'll be interesting to watch play out (or not). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Pretty crazy wind gust map. The ECMWF is even wilder. On another note, there seems to be some thinking that the solar flare could weaken Irma beginning tomorrow. That'll be interesting to watch play out (or not). Dang! Upstate and CAE would be wrecked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: What are your thoughts on Atlanta in general with regard to Irma? I know you asked him but ATL stays on the "good" side of Irma. I personally just don't see much more than a couple inches of rain with winds around 35mph for the metro. Imo ATL gets their tropical hits from GOM storms barreling north out of the gulf. Ie Opal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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