Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Irma looks to be weakening. Yeah it appears that way per recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 29 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: you could say that unless Irma hits Mid NC or north then it was a huge bust too. Dunkman posted a great graph last night that shows the Euro has handled Irma the best from the jump. If Irma misses Cuba it doesn't mean the Euro was not the best model by far with the track. I also don't think she will hit Cuba directly but I think a close pass of 25-30 miles to MIA vs a LF at MIA doesn't change the Euro's accuracy compared to the other globals. This is the euro run from about 36 hours ago. At hour 96 it's a direct hit to Cuba, it had this idea for a few runs in a row. The gfs never had this idea. If the gfs turns out to be correct with the Cuba and Miami miss that has huge implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 At hour 75 the NAM has Irma hitting south Florida (SW of Miami)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 12 hours ago, Dunkman said: As we prepare for the main events of the 0z model suite I'd just like to point out that the GFS is even losing to the freaking CMC now. America! (also shout out to the Navy for having all of the worst 3 models) (and the HMON for tarnishing the GFDL's good name) Franklin AVNO is the GFS There isn't a debate as to which model has handled Irma the most accurately. The GFS has been swinging wildly at a track with lots of east and west adjustments. The Euro while far from perfect has performed better than it's counterparts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, FallsLake said: At hour 75 the NAM has Irma hitting south Florida (SW of Miami)... Yeah crazy jump west there but it is way different with the trough versus all its other runs so I dunno.....its actually faster with it offshore which I would think would beat down the WAR faster making it more north.....sometimes models just do exactly the opposite of what I think the next panel would look like. This entire NAM run was that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 WRAL has Irma hitting at the GA and SC border as a cat 1. I was surprised at that. From everything I read on the boards, it sounded like folks think it will become a major hurricane again when exiting FL, at least a cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Franklin AVNO is the GFS There isn't a debate as to which model has handled Irma the most accurately. The GFS has been swinging wildly at a track with lots of east and west adjustments. The Euro while far from perfect has performed better than it's counterparts. You're arguing a point I never made. Right now the Cuba hit appears to be a bad forecast. If it misses Miami too and stays just offshore then those are two bad misses as far as the ramifications. I'm not disputing that the euro scores better than the gfs. There is this notion. That if the euro shows something it's taken as gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 26 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: This is the euro run from about 36 hours ago. At hour 96 it's a direct hit to Cuba, it had this idea for a few runs in a row. The gfs never had this idea. If the gfs turns out to be correct with the Cuba and Miami miss that has huge implications. The only Euro runs with a Cuba hit were 12Z/05, 00Z/05, and barely on 00Z/04. That's only 3 of the last 15 runs. I'm not sure I'd say the Euro has been blasting a full blown Cuba hit by any means. I think the GFS and Euro are both working toward a consensus that will end up somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: WRAL has Irma hitting at the GA and SC border as a cat 1. I was surprised at that. From everything I read on the boards, it sounded like folks think it will become a major hurricane again when exiting FL, at least a cat 3. Nope. It's a bad misrepresentation of the map. It's "expected" to hit as a 3. At some point it'll become a 1. People are taking the cones they are hand drawing too literally. Even the NHC cone. It's not meant to be taken literally. It's been addressed by a few. It's being mentioned everywhere. Sadly, lots of people think it's striking as a 1 and so now itll be nothing up here. Just got done having a long convo with a met in Atlanta about this and he said this is a big problem. It's confusing people right and left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 It will be interesting to see how the forward speed on landfall plays out. At this time, it appears to be far slower than Hugo. Due to Hugo's fast forward speed (Midnight CHS, 300am CAE, 500am CLT), Hugo did not have time to decay moving inland. At this time it appears that Irma will be considerably slower in forward speed, but anything can change. NWS GSP and CAE and CHS will certainly have their hands full over the next few days. A great bunch of guys and GSP will be on top of the foothills and mountains high country impact. As usual, follow closely the office information that is distributed by NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, Columbia and Charleston and implement your preparations accordingly. GSP: http://kamala.cod.edu/sc/latest.fxus62.KGSP.html CAE: http://kamala.cod.edu/sc/latest.fxus62.KCAE.html CHS: http://kamala.cod.edu/sc/latest.fxus62.KCHS.html Good luck to all with the storm, particularly those in our weather group closer to the SC and GA Coasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Regan said: Nope. It's a bad misrepresentation of the map. It's "expected" to hit as a 3. At some point it'll become a 1. People are taking the cones they are hand drawing too literally. It's been addressed by a few. It's being mentioned everywhere. Sadly, lots of people think it's striking as a 1 and so now itll be nothing up here. Just got done having a long convo with a met in Atlanta about this. They probably shouldn't show it as a cat 1 then on their graphic at the GA and SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: They probably shouldn't show it as a cat 1 then on their graphic at the GA and SC border. Agreed. People are so visual. It's misleading. It'll be a 1 after landfall just not sure where on land. They also get so caught up in cat classification numbers and not the wind speeds and what they can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, Regan said: Nope. It's a bad misrepresentation of the map. It's "expected" to hit as a 3. At some point it'll become a 1. People are taking the cones they are hand drawing too literally. Even the NHC cone. It's not meant to be taken literally. It's been addressed by a few. It's being mentioned everywhere. Sadly, lots of people think it's striking as a 1 and so now itll be nothing up here. Just got done having a long convo with a met in Atlanta about this and he said this is a big problem. It's confusing people right and left. I was just telling someone this yesterday too...because it is easy to see how it can be misleading. They should modify their graphic to include an extra data point to indicate the strength it is expected to be at landfall. It is such an easy and common sense thing to do that im not sure why they have never done it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Lookout said: I was just telling someone this yesterday too...because it is easy to see how it can be misleading. They should modify their graphic to include an extra data point to indicate the strength it is expected to be at landfall. It is such an easy and common sense thing to do that im not sure why they have never done it Yes, if you see this it looks like it will only be a cat 1, and that is very misleading and could make people stay if they just looked at the graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: I was just telling someone this yesterday too...because it is easy to see how it can be misleading. They should modify their graphic to include an extra data point to indicate the strength it is expected to be at landfall. It is such an easy and common sense thing to do that im not sure why they have never done it Exactly. This is a big issue. I can't tell you how many people I've had to talk to today. Not to mention how many people don't understand how to interpret the cone in general. But placing the floater on the median right at/near coast gives people the idea it's hitting as a 1. People look. Take it at face value. Kinda human nature. There's gotta be a better way. I posted on Facebook about it this morning and I've tweeted some media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Yes, if you see this it looks like it will only be a cat 1, and that is very misleading and could make people stay if they just looked at the graphic. Exactly Brick and some stations' cones are worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I guess it all depends on how much land it is over when and if it hits FL. If it barely hits there or misses completely, it would have a better chance of keeping it's strength all the way up to the GA/SC border. But even if it hits near Miami and goes on land for a while most folks seem to think it could get back to a cat 3 by the time it hits again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Yes, if you see this it looks like it will only be a cat 1, and that is very misleading and could make people stay if they just looked at the graphic. Yeah I see it as misleading. On the other hand the NHC has an "M" right on the track south of the FL/GA state line. That's what has me worried. Wish I had a crystal ball to look into right about now but midday model runs will have to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: I guess it all depends on how much land it is over when and if it hits FL. If it barely hits there or misses completely, it would have a better chance of keeping it's strength all the way up to the GA/SC border. But even if it hits near Miami and goes on land for a while most folks seem to think it could get back to a cat 3 by the time it hits again. Had a long talk with a met in Atlanta and he said this is a big problem. They shouldn't be plotting the floaters this way with the 1 where they did and should be saying more as well as possible an extra floater. Idk. Friends have called me all morning about this not to mention the people on social media who aren't planning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The new NHC track has the NW bend to it over SC after landfall and has it a tropical storm over my house Tuesday 8 AM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: Irma taking a nice NW wobble right now if she doesnt wobble back to the left here soon she will miss her next NHC plot by a good 30-40 miles....maybe more even...the motion she has right now would take her north of the Turks and Caico. She has been right of track since the NW turn east of Puerto Rico....which is more in line with the ensembles that miss Florida and head further north....if you notice every time the NHC has updated their plots on the floaters they put their track down the next plot is always NW then they go back to WNW....not sure what if any impact this will have later but you would think it supports to more N track..... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-rb-long.html We dont have to wait for 2-3 days . Just watch and plot. I agree downeast its moving NW imo and gonna start adding up throughout the day. Just look at NHC prognastion and you can see how just 30 to 50 miles of a different trajectory is gonna affect landfall points down the road. NHC has this going south of turks as of latest advisory, so lets see where she ends up tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Last few frames are NW so well see if she ticks back more west latter today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I posted something about this in the "other" thread but if anyone is curious about what's in the HCCA - HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model that the NHC is leaning heavily on according to the 11am discussion here it is. GFS Ensemble Mean/GFS/Navy COAMPS/SHIPS Decay/UKMET/ECMWF Ensemble Mean/ECMWF/HWRF/LGEM The individual members are also weighted based on performance. I don't have any clue where to find the output or even if it's available anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Wish I could help you ought Dunkman. I'm trying to find that radar overlay someone else created yesterday with the t-graph. That would be great to observe today comparing to plots from nhc and models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Going into hour 66 it looks like impact is imminent for FL. It's going to be very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 22 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Last few frames are NW so well see if she ticks back more west latter today Even if it is more NW right now that doesnt automatically mean it cant go way west later since a lot of that has to do with the little finger ridge the models have been showing up over central Florida....that wont happen till a little later....however the models that have that finger ridge weaker thus allowing a more NE track int eh Bahamas also have the center stay on the north side or barely in the north Turks and Caicos. Then again the 00Z GFS ran a SC/NC landfall and had the sharp west turn then sharp north turn in the Bahamas and basically a hit for Miami because it held the trough back longer....so really there are to many things for the models to get right to put much stock in any given run IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Irma is just riding up the coast. The center looks to remain of shore but man that would be a beating through the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 GFS is a tick west at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 How far north does it get this run, anyone wanna take a guess? Its faster with the trough offshore so that means probably Savannah to Charleston again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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