Hurricane Irma

[BullCityWx]

12z 120hr sounding from the GFS for CLT is showing 50 mph winds already at the 925 level, which isnt far above the sfc. 

[LithiaWx]

11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Canadian landfalls in NC this go-round.

It's not getting any attention in the main thread. Far outlier would be my guess as to the reason the more knowledgeable tropical posters have ignored it.  

[jpbart]

SC has declared a state of of Emergency.  Reports of local grocery stores running out of bottled water.  I am buying extra batteries, and getting propane today to beat any rush from an evacuation etc.   If they evacuate Charleston the traffic around Columbia will be epic.

http://www.wistv.com/story/36301422/gov-henry-mcmaster-declares-state-of-emergency-ahead-of-potential-irma-landfall

[downeastnc]

6 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

It's not getting any attention in the main thread. Far outlier would be my guess as to the reason the more knowledgeable tropical posters have ignored it.  

Its ignored because the last 3 runs had landfalls in Florida panhandle, OTS, latest was similar to GFS even came in over Miami then up the coast to MHX.....so this last run was much closer to the other globals.

We are still 4-5 days out depending on where it hits the models are still jumping around and the track error at day 5 is 200 miles,  everyone is still in the game from Miami to Hatteras. 

[Ser Pounce]

5 minutes ago, jpbart said:

SC has declared a state of of Emergency.  Reports of local grocery stores running out of bottled water.  I am buying extra batteries, and getting propane today to beat any rush from an evacuation etc.   If they evacuate Charleston the traffic around Columbia will be epic.

http://www.wistv.com/story/36301422/gov-henry-mcmaster-declares-state-of-emergency-ahead-of-potential-irma-landfall

At risk of being on the banter side of things, I would not expect evacuation in any way to begin soon for the simple reason that there's nowhere to evacuate people to since the risk itself is not well defined yet. Going to Raleigh may look like a good idea now, but it could turn into a terrible one if models move again and you don't want to inadvertently put people in harm's way.

[NCSNOW]

90 degree water / some of the(if not) warmest ocean water in the world is just below south Florida, southern Bahamas. Keep this in mind

 

[LithiaWx]

3 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

At risk of being on the banter side of things, I would not expect evacuation in any way to begin soon for the simple reason that there's nowhere to evacuate people to since the risk itself is not well defined yet. Going to Raleigh may look like a good idea now, but it could turn into a terrible one if models move again and you don't want to inadvertently put people in harm's way.

Atlanta is a good place to evacuate to coming from SC.  No model puts us on the east side of the hurricane so it will be fine here except for some showers and some mild wind from Irma.  JMO 

[kvegas-wx]

4 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

At risk of being on the banter side of things, I would not expect evacuation in any way to begin soon for the simple reason that there's nowhere to evacuate people to since the risk itself is not well defined yet. Going to Raleigh may look like a good idea now, but it could turn into a terrible one if models move again and you don't want to inadvertently put people in harm's way.

I understand what your thoughts are here, but disagree.  I would much rather take my chances holed up in a Raleigh hotel where there may be some heavy rain and wind vs the unknown, but most certain destruction that would occur on the coast.  What is the worst that can happen if you evacuate inland.....maybe your home on the coast is spared and you blew a few hundred on a hotel room?  I'll deal with it.  Anyone on the coast of SC should be ready with the car loaded by tomorrow at the latest.

[mackerel_sky]

8 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

At risk of being on the banter side of things, I would not expect evacuation in any way to begin soon for the simple reason that there's nowhere to evacuate people to since the risk itself is not well defined yet. Going to Raleigh may look like a good idea now, but it could turn into a terrible one if models move again and you don't want to inadvertently put people in harm's way.

Like last year with Matthew, everybody came off the coast to go to Fayetville, only to get flooded out!

[griteater]

49 minutes ago, griteater said:

Looks like the 12z UKMet is a little east.  Looks like it is barely off the central FL coast at 120 on the crude maps 

Yeah, the 12z UKMet is east of its previous run and hits near Edisto Island.  Latest trends aren't good at all for GA/SC coasts in that the recent model tracks aren't weakening the storm substantially by hitting Cuba/Florida

[Thor]

12z CMC

[senc30]

It's probably past experience that leads me to this thought but I just don't see it going into GA or honestly, anywhere south of Middle SC. Lord knows I hope I am wrong but I've seen so many times that the models have shown this and it never happens. These things always seem to end up further north then the models suggest. In my ideal world, this thing hooks and goes OTS but I just can't quite seem to allow myself to believe it is going to hook into southern SC or Northern GA. Would be a disaster for them if it did. 

[StormyClearweather]

GEFS mean looks maybe a little bit west of the OP through 144, but pretty close.

[LithiaWx]

6 minutes ago, senc30 said:

It's probably past experience that leads me to this thought but I just don't see it going into GA or honestly, anywhere south of Middle SC. Lord knows I hope I am wrong but I've seen so many times that the models have shown this and it never happens. These things always seem to end up further north then the models suggest. In my ideal world, this thing hooks and goes OTS but I just can't quite seem to allow myself to believe it is going to hook into southern SC or Northern GA. Would be a disaster for them if it did. 

That's because LF in GA is hard to get due to shape of the coastline and climb tracks.  You're right smart money is on southern SC but god help SAV if Irma finds a way to hit them dead in the mouth.

[Poimen]

One more radar pic: "In the eye." 

[senc30]

4 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

That's because LF in GA is hard to get due to shape of the coastline and climb tracks.  You're right smart money is on southern SC but god help SAV if Irma finds a way to hit them dead in the mouth.

I just have a gut feeling when it all shakes out, this is a halfway up sc to North Topsail beach landfall. Hoping to see some serious hope of an OTS track soon. Maybe the EURO will help with that in about 10 mins.

[LithiaWx]

Ive been on the island of Tortola before. Hard to imagine the absolute carnage they just went through.   That is the island currently in the eye of Irma correct?

[downeastnc]

14 minutes ago, senc30 said:

It's probably past experience that leads me to this thought but I just don't see it going into GA or honestly, anywhere south of Middle SC. Lord knows I hope I am wrong but I've seen so many times that the models have shown this and it never happens. These things always seem to end up further north then the models suggest. In my ideal world, this thing hooks and goes OTS but I just can't quite seem to allow myself to believe it is going to hook into southern SC or Northern GA. Would be a disaster for them if it did. 

yeah its tough to sit here in this time frame, with this kind of model output and not have a bit of a sense of we have seen this before...Maybe this one will be the one that actually landfalls in GA/lower SC but there is a reason they get so few landfalls there and Charleston up to Cape Lookout gets so many. A OTS solution seems unlikely unless all the models blow that Great lakes high placement by a lot and thats pretty doubtful.

[UpstateSCBud]

What's the earliest evacuations of Charleston would likely begin? I ask because I'm headed on vacation to the Isle of Palms this Saturday. 

[StormyClearweather]

Just now, downeastnc said:

yeah its tough to sit here in this time frame, with this kind of model output and not have a bit of a sense of we have seen this before...Maybe this one will be the one that actually landfalls in GA/lower SC but there is a reason they get so few landfalls there and Charleston up to Cape Lookout gets so many. A OTS solution seems unlikely unless all the models blow that Great lakes high placement by a lot and thats pretty doubtful.

I really thought we might see some OTS solutions begin to emerge, but it seems like we're going in the opposite direction now. Obviously it could still happen since the track errors at this timeframe are still pretty large -- but it's getting harder and harder to see what might make it happen.

The GEFS mean definitely shifted west pretty significantly. I haven't seen individual members yet (some of those sites are blocked at work for whatever reason), so anybody has them, please share.

[BullCityWx]

1 minute ago, UpstateSCBud said:

What's the earliest evacuations of Charleston would likely begin? I ask because I'm headed on vacation to the Isle of Palms this Saturday. 

Just a guess but I imagine friday. 

[downeastnc]

7 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Ive been on the island of Tortola before. Hard to imagine the absolute carnage they just went through.   That is the island currently in the eye of Irma correct?

Looks like Virgin Gorda and Anegada are the two islands being eyewalled right now....best I can tell, though the British Virgin islands are getting hit hard as well...looks like Tortola is gusting into the 60-70 mph range...

[WintersNotComing]

2 minutes ago, UpstateSCBud said:

What's the earliest evacuations of Charleston would likely begin? I ask because I'm headed on vacation to the Isle of Palms this Saturday. 

With the state of emergency declared and schools beginning to close down there, I would expect evacuations to begin Friday/Saturday if the storm stays on this course.

[UpstateSCBud]

Well let's hope she's changes course,  because I'm headed down there Saturday regardless. Should have gotten the cancelation insurance lol 

[Avdave]

1 minute ago, UpstateSCBud said:

Well let's hope she's changes course,  because I'm headed down there Saturday regardless. Should have gotten the cancelation insurance lol 

Good luck, if they are doing mandatory evacuations the authorities wont be letting visitors in probably

[WintersNotComing]

1 minute ago, UpstateSCBud said:

Well let's hope she's changes course,  because I'm headed down there Saturday regardless. Should have gotten the cancelation insurance lol 

Good luck. Your vacation is turning into storm chasing.

[downeastnc]

10 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

I really thought we might see some OTS solutions begin to emerge, but it seems like we're going in the opposite direction now. Obviously it could still happen since the track errors at this timeframe are still pretty large -- but it's getting harder and harder to see what might make it happen.

The GEFS mean definitely shifted west pretty significantly. I haven't seen individual members yet (some of those sites are blocked at work for whatever reason), so anybody has them, please share.

 

the problem is the GEFS swing wildly every run so there is no real faith in them, though they are better than that fuster cluck that is the EPS whose ensemble spread is crazy bad...my point is all this really proves is the models have a poor handle on the storm and how its gonna play out, and trying to buy into any one solution or when the GEFS are all over the place. I guarantee we see more GFS runs into eastern NC and some into Miami and everywhere in between in the next 48 hrs.....same goes for the other models...

GEFS from 18Z last night...Florida 

 

GEFS 6Z from this morning....NC 

 

Gonna guess the 12Z are back west....so how reliable do you reckon the GFS is run to run in this range right now? About the only thing  we can be sure of is teh SE looks to take a landfall from a major cane....

[Lookout]

14 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

I really thought we might see some OTS solutions begin to emerge, but it seems like we're going in the opposite direction now. Obviously it could still happen since the track errors at this timeframe are still pretty large -- but it's getting harder and harder to see what might make it happen.

The GEFS mean definitely shifted west pretty significantly. I haven't seen individual members yet (some of those sites are blocked at work for whatever reason), so anybody has them, please share.

yep...good bit further west and more concentrated around the gfs track. 

 

edit, oops i see downeast already showed it. 

 

 

 

 

 

[ceknc]

35 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I understand what your thoughts are here, but disagree.  I would much rather take my chances holed up in a Raleigh hotel where there may be some heavy rain and wind vs the unknown, but most certain destruction that would occur on the coast.  What is the worst that can happen if you evacuate inland.....maybe your home on the coast is spared and you blew a few hundred on a hotel room?  I'll deal with it.  Anyone on the coast of SC should be ready with the car loaded by tomorrow at the latest.

I was a student at NC State during Fran.  Fifth floor of Metcalf was my safe harbor, even as trees fell around us and transformers kept exploding.  Brad P this morning gave good advice - hide from wind, but flee from floods.  A hotel in Raleigh or Charlotte would be infinitely better than remaining at the coast.  

[Cold Rain]

6 minutes ago, ceknc said:

I was a student at NC State during Fran.  Fifth floor of Metcalf was my safe harbor, even as trees fell around us and transformers kept exploding.  Brad P this morning gave good advice - hide from wind, but flee from floods.  A hotel in Raleigh or Charlotte would be infinitely better than remaining at the coast.  

Welcome to the board!  I was also at State during Fran.  We lived in apartments right near the Kmart on MLK/Blue Ridge Rd.  It was amazing trying to leave the next morning and find a route without trees blocking the road.  Fortunately, we didn't have one fall on our unit.  If Irma takes a track like last nights 18z GFS showed, Fran will probably look like a walk in the park in comparison.