downeastnc Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 The part that really sucks is this thing is at best 12 or so days away from any impact it might have on the US, thats a long time to fret over model runs lol....and until we see a wholesale change in the upper level setup it looks like most of those runs will be threats to the US....the Euro is also weaker with the system overall and this also might be why its further south with it, a deep strong cane is gonna want to go north more so that might lend the GFS solution a little more weight if the storm actually bombs into a Cat 4/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 12z GFS recurves. I'm not sure about it plowing through that ridge though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I don't see how Irma plows right through the heart of a 597dm ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 And pin the thread. Fixing to get alot of traffic next week. Amazing at euro and ukmet forecasting that ridge so strong and now gfs caving. Very likely this is gonna effect conus. Biggest hope we have is it hitting speed bump DR, PR, Honduras. Otherwiis it's gonna be lights out for some folks somewhere between Texas to any where on east coast. That's up in the air, but Irma is coming to the neighborhood just a matter of who's doorbell gets rung. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 The GFS has the SW turn east of the islands but then it turns NW as soon as its done moving SW passing well north of the islands...kinda crazy that the storm would turn that fast...at hr 96 its headed SW by 108 its already got a NW motion to it....but if you run the loop from this frame you will see why, look to its NW north of the greater Antilles. The Euro doesnt have that at all thus more west. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atltropics&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017083112&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 GFS probably over deepening the low and trying to turn it poleward quicker. If the ridge was weak sauce I'd be a bit more inclined to believe it, but not with a stout high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Hope the GFS is right, but it seems on its own right now with it going out to sea with Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The GFS has the SW turn east of the islands but then it turns NW as soon as its done moving SW passing well north of the islands...kinda crazy that the storm would turn that fast...at hr 96 its headed SW by 108 its already got a NW motion to it....but if you run the loop from this frame you will see why, look to its NW north of the greater Antilles. The Euro doesnt have that at all thus more west. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atltropics&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017083112&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=100 Big hurricanes don't turn fast...They barrow forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: GFS probably over deepening the low and trying to turn it poleward quicker. If the ridge was weak sauce I'd be a bit more inclined to believe it, but not with a stout high to the north. It has the ULL out in front of it north of the islands run the last 4 GFS runs with 500mb vort map and you can see how the strength/timing of that really steers the storm.....the Euro doesnt have that ULL at all, neither does the CMC ( well its there just weaker ) and its further west though it stalls and appears to want to go north at the end of the run at 12Z but its much further SW this run versus last. If the GFS drops the ULL it would be much further west too...will be something to watch to see who has that right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 In opposition to the GFS, Mike Ventrice says "the best Euro Ensemble members via initialization score are west of the ensemble mean track, taking Irma into the Gulf of Mexico" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: In opposition to the GFS, Mike Ventrice says "the best Euro Ensemble members via initialization score are west of the ensemble mean track, taking Irma into the Gulf of Mexico" Tough to argue with the Euro but if there is a caveat it appears the Euro is much weaker with the storm overall....a stronger system will want to pull north more. Really though it will be Tues or Wed next week before model runs will be close enough to put a landfall inside of 7 days and until then I imagine there will be much disagreement and changes in the model runs as the upper level pattern comes into better range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 hours ago, frazdaddy said: Hazel is the only cat4 for NC I think. We seem to be having an uptick in "rare" events of late though. NC Hurricane History book by Jay Barnes lists three CAT 4 hurricanes with NC landfall... Unnamed, Aug 1879, 168 MPH, Southport up thru Topsail Island Hazel, Oct 1954, 150 MPH, Holden Beach Unnamed, Aug 1899, 140 MPH, just east of Beaufort Max winds noted are listed as estimates for each storm at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 It's going to be a long 10 days if we watch every single Model cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, shaggy said: It's going to be a long 10 days if we watch every single Model cycle Getting us ready for the model watching in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Getting us ready for the model watching in winter. In winter, all you have to do is pick the least snowy model and it will be right 99/100! Don't know how this translates to hurricanes, but I'm praying for a recurve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 hour ago, jburns said: Add the fact that as of this morning we have this complication. The Colonial Pipeline, which carries huge amounts of gasoline and other fuel between Houston and the East Coast, is shutting down after Harvey forced the closure of refineries and some of the pipeline's own facilities. The pipeline has two main lines that together transport more than 100 million gallons of gasoline, heating oil and aviation fuel as far as the New York harbor each day. Saw an article on this and a gas "expert" said as soon as the pipelines start back up, prices would rapidly fall! Gonna have to call BS on that one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi Current map here. GFS breakdown at ATL ridge, a known bias likely taking over. Here is my idea from am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi Current map here. GFS breakdown at ATL ridge, a known bias likely taking over. Here is my idea from am So basically JB is predicting a landfalling Cat 3/4 storm with maybe a 5% chance of escape. Still 50/50 which side of FL takes the hit. About the worst possible case either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, kvegas-wx said: So basically JB is predicting a landfalling Cat 3/4 storm with maybe a 5% chance of escape. Still 50/50 which side of FL takes the hit. About the worst possible case either way. Looks like the best hope is for it to have as much land interaction as possible to keep it weaker. If it goes too far south, it will end up in the gulf as a powerhouse system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 hour ago, NCSNOW said: And pin the thread. Fixing to get alot of traffic next week. Amazing at euro and ukmet forecasting that ridge so strong and now gfs caving. Very likely this is gonna effect conus. Biggest hope we have is it hitting speed bump DR, PR, Honduras. Otherwiis it's gonna be lights out for some folks somewhere between Texas to any where on east coast. That's up in the air, but Irma is coming to the neighborhood just a matter of who's doorbell gets rung. That may be your biggest hope, but I'm pretty sure the people living on those islands would not see it the same way: "Please, please, Irma, plow right over the top of us so that by our sacrifice we might decrease the amount of suffering experienced by our very dear neighbors to the north." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 40 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: So basically JB is predicting a landfalling Cat 3/4 storm with maybe a 5% chance of escape. Still 50/50 which side of FL takes the hit. About the worst possible case either way. JB cone is fine on the west side but needs to be extended east. He has the cone barely east of Hatteras. Like people have said a stronger cane pulls poleward. Trough could catch it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 36 minutes ago, calculus1 said: That may be your biggest hope, but I'm pretty sure the people living on those islands would not see it the same way: "Please, please, Irma, plow right over the top of us so that by our sacrifice we might decrease the amount of suffering experienced by our very dear neighbors to the north." This is a really good comment. I have been thinking it would be great if the islands can help shred Irma to some degree. I forget that this could come into the islands as a violent Cape Verde storm. We are a wealthy nation. Those poor people down there with limited resources would experience far more misery than we can imagine. Hope the 12Z Euro follows the trend of keeping Irma further NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 At 96, compared to prev run, Euro is stronger and in similar location...not farther north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Euro at 120 is stronger and farther south of prev run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro at 120 is stronger and farther south of prev run looks to be north at 144 might go over or even north of Puerto Rico this go around.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 168 north of Puerto Rico at 946 mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro at 120 is stronger and farther south of prev run Ruh-Roh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 15 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro at 120 is stronger and farther south of prev run Good grief... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Good grief... That's going to be bad for someone in the US if it slides just north of all of the major land masses as it approaches. No weakening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Euro has it right on the north coast of Cuba as a monster at 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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