LovingGulfLows Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Pretty damn windy where I am now. Strong gusts. Gotta be 30+ mph gusts. The pressure gradient between Irma and the high must be strong if I'm already seeing pretty strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I think the jet fuel was tainted! The take off to cat 4-5, is crashing and burning, like the NC State football team! I think the writing was on the wall when it came off of Cuba with the comma shape you usually see with NC canes and the western side of the storm was missing. Those things didn't suggest explosive strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 The 12z hurricane models are a sigh of relief for N FL and the FL panhandle. 25 miles could make a world of difference with how tightly it is going to follow to the coastline up the peninsula (whether it is just onshore or just offshore). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 Big Pine Key recorded a gust to 120 so thats the highest I have seen and it was in the worst of the east eyewall so that would would be good if it came in over Naples so that the east side came in over the everglades this would lessen the damage considerably.... Then a track inland should help limit the damage to the west coast as her left side is garbage.....up the east coast to GA though onshore flow is gonna produce widespread hurricane gust I bet....will be interesting to see how bad it is inland north of say Orlando if she tracks onshore.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 10 hours ago, LithiaWx said: I don't remember the last tropical storm watch for mby. I'm preparing for some power outages for sure. As far as I know, there's never BEEN one since they implemented the system in 2000 at least in the Atlanta area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I'm starting to wonder if some of us east-coasters don't need to be watching Mr Jose a bit more now, too, LOL. My parents are reporting fairly heavy rain as far north as Gilchrist County. Still some weather to be had I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Big Pine Key recorded a gust to 120 so thats the highest I have seen and it was in the worst of the east eyewall so that would would be good if it came in over Naples so that the east side came in over the everglades this would lessen the damage considerably.... Then a track inland should help limit the damage to the west coast as her left side is garbage.....up the east coast to GA though onshore flow is gonna produce widespread hurricane gust I bet....will be interesting to see how bad it is inland north of say Orlando if she tracks onshore.... The highest gust I've seen from Key West was 91 whereas Miami has gusted to 94. Really goes to show how weak the west side is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 129kt in NE eyewall surface level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Still sunny here but the clouds are moving in from the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Dunkman said: The highest gust I've seen from Key West was 91 whereas Miami has gusted to 94. Really goes to show how weak the west side is. Yep a landfall in the Everglades and a track 40-50 miles inland is best case....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Eastern eyewall is heading right for Naples. I swear you don't even need models for the last 24 hours before landfall. Just look at twitter to find out where Josh is and that's where it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjr Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/906883628612947973 NWS Key WestVerified account @NWSKeyWest 23m23 minutes ago A wind gust of 120 mph was reported by the RAWs observing site at the National Key Deer Refuge on Big Pine Key at 9:38 AM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Looks like a due north track now and currently east of official track. Could see a trend back east until the cutoff UL starts to engage it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Would the more eastern trend (if it happens) have an impact on winds/rain etc.. up the road in NC/SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Looks like a due north track now and currently east of official track. Could see a trend back east until the cutoff UL starts to engage it. Everglades City is gonna get hammered....the west side is crap....so a east jog would really help Marco Island up to Ft Myers.....there is nothing in south central Florida south of Lake Okeechobee but farms and small towns....while it would suck for them it would let the worst winds in the eastern eyewall slow down some before it got north over more populated areas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Simon Brewer video in Saddlebunch Keys, just east of Key West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Next recon fix should help but it looks like west of due north to me for the last hour on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Yeah, last few frames have had a west component. Nothing too surprising is going to happen at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etownshane Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 How soon could we expect the east side of the storm to break down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, Dunkman said: Next recon fix should help but it looks like west of due north to me for the last hour on radar. Yep she's still wobbling around like a drunk sailor, but fairly clear due north right now is the result,midline between 82 & 81 has been the overall result. It seems to wobble left, north, back right, blah blah, the core of the storm looks like an off-balance top.http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rbtop_lalo-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Winds already picking up here in Atlanta. Pretty amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 A bit of westward movement in the last few radar frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Seems like the core of the storm is, not sure how to put it, 'off balance'. The circulation seems to be off-center and flailing around a bit as the eye oscillates west then east, larger then smaller. Uneven convection?https://i.imgur.com/NloLNvP.gifv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Atlanta is already sustained at 29mph with gusts to 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Wind already gusting to 30+ mph across N Ga. already with only daytime heating to mix the winds down. Pressures are still rising as HP builds in. At this rate, we'll have areas gusting to TS force with blue skies this afternoon. Brings back childhood memories of riding my bike with the wind at my back on a beautiful day much like this the day Betsy hit New Orleans. Been a weenie ever since LMAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Yeah the gusting started a lot earlier than I expected. My PWS anemometer is down or else I'd have a decent reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 51 minutes ago, Dunkman said: Next recon fix should help but it looks like west of due north to me for the last hour on radar. I think they are done with recon flights. Read on another board. Once it landfalls, ( key west area) they stop recon flights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Gusting to 10-15 or so here in Raleigh. Heading down to the beach today. Supposed to be breezy there tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: I think they are done with recon flights. Read on another board. Once it landfalls, ( key west area) they stop recon flights We were in the southwest part of the eye in Isabelle and had a high sky and calmer winds and saw a HH fly overhead and that was over greenville NC well inland. One of the coolest experiences ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: Gusting to 10-15 or so here in Raleigh. Heading down to the beach today. Supposed to be breezy there tomorrow. It's awesome outside ! Winds ripping out of the NE, milky clouds getting thicker, if it was 40 degrees colder , I'd be waiting on my 34 degrees and rain storm! On an Irma note, with the southern eyewall getting raggedy, all the strongest winds and rains are on the N/ NE side, that's why the crazy gusts and rains have NGa/W upstate in their sights! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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