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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I think it can make 4 or 5 again but I tend to agree on the wind field.  I don't think this will be anywhere near as big as initially thought at least for hurricane force winds any longer.  I'm surprised though how much improved looking it is in the last 2 hours.  While I did anticipate it would weaken 25 mph or so over land I didn't think it would look that beat up as it was about to come off 

She really does look good all things considered, I also am surprised she has flared up so nicely in the last few hrs, she probable actually has winds to match her Cat now....as long as she protects the inner core anything is possible but the chances she reclaims her pre Cuba glory is slim to none, that shear is :yikes:and once that starts to work on her its a wrap. Still look at the havoc Charley and his small intense core wreaked on Florida....it does however make you think the higher wind predicted well inlands are much less likely. Then again who knows she could stall and go nuts for 10 hrs and destroy all of Florida.

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

She really does look good all things considered, I also am surprised she has flared up so nicely in the last few hrs, she probable actually has winds to match her Cat now....as long as she protects the inner core anything is possible but the chances she reclaims her pre Cuba glory is slim to none, that shear is :yikes:and once that starts to work on her its a wrap. Still look at the havoc Charley and his small intense core wreaked on Florida....it does however make you think the higher wind predicted well inlands are much less likely. Then again who knows she could stall and go nuts for 10 hrs and destroy all of Florida.

Indeed, watch the entire last 48, and, well, lotta steam lost. (VMAX on that image is quite interesting too, espec how quickly she gains/loses steam)
last48hrs.gif

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7 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

This microwave shows her being pummeled by Cuba....especially the west side its all but gone except for the immediate core....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2017_11L/web/basicGifDisplay.html

Visible IS still fairly impressive though.  I do think its heading more north-northwest now: 
rgb_lalo-animated.gif

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Plane is on the way in now, probably gonna find some 110-120+ mph winds right on the center....maybe a bit higher if she can maintain these storms ( tough to do with half of them over land) then who knows...she needs to get away from Cuba....her storms only go out 50 miles on the west side versus 120 miles on the east that actually sucks for Florida on the forecasted track but by the same token if she drags the east side up the coast of Florida she will weaken quite a bit....she is only 140-150 miles from the Keys....she also looks to be speeding up a tiny bit but it could just be the center wobbling. 

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18 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

The Euro sounds concerning for the panhandle based on the main forum thread.  Anyone got any updates on it?

Comes northwest to right over the Keys, then NNNW to a landfall north of Tampa, then  a hard NW turn to northern AL....shear is 30-50 knts though up that way so the storm would be getting hammered...it drags the east side right up the west coast of Florida, but shear kicks in north of Naples and its 30-50 knt so who knows what she will be like by the time she gets to the Big Bend.... Euro has it in Arkansas in 96 hrs lol....then loses it at 120...

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Drop in the NW eyewall with the highest surface wind was this drop..so she looks to at least be maintaining and not losing much more strength....not much different than the drops before the last plane left a few hrs ago....I bet the E side has better winds and the center pressure is probably around 935-940 MB...

Time:    18:28:00Z
Coordinates:    23.233N 80.400W
Acft. Static Air Press:    696.9 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:    2,715 m (8,907 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:    948.8 mb (28.02 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):    From 28° at 90 kts (From the NNE at 103.6 mph)
Air Temp:    16.4°C (61.5°F)
Dew Pt:    13.3°C (55.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:    91 kts (104.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:    82 kts (94.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:    3 mm/hr (0.12 in/hr)

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Nevermind they are not much better on the east side, highest one on the outbound leg was 101 mph, unless they find some serious wind in the north side Irma is a low end Cat 2 at best....even with a pressure that low, this is what interacting with land does for a cane....if she can keep her pressure low though she should be able to recover quickly but how much is still a ?

Time:    18:34:30Z
Coordinates:    23.133N 79.950W
Acft. Static Air Press:    695.7 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:    2,779 m (9,117 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:    956.1 mb (28.24 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):    From 182° at 84 kts (From the S at 96.7 mph)
Air Temp:    13.7°C* (56.7°F*)
Dew Pt:    -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:    88 kts (101.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:    88 kts (101.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:    14 mm/hr (0.55 in/hr)

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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

Nevermind they are not much better on the east side, highest one on the outbound leg was 101 mph, unless they find some serious wind in the north side Irma is a low end Cat 2 at best....even with a pressure that low, this is what interacting with land does for a cane....if she can keep her pressure low though she should be able to recover quickly but how much is still a ?

Time:    18:34:30Z
Coordinates:    23.133N 79.950W
Acft. Static Air Press:    695.7 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:    2,779 m (9,117 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:    956.1 mb (28.24 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):    From 182° at 84 kts (From the S at 96.7 mph)
Air Temp:    13.7°C* (56.7°F*)
Dew Pt:    -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:    88 kts (101.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:    88 kts (101.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:    14 mm/hr (0.55 in/hr)

I think you were right on track earlier with this. 

Had this bung out in Cuba longer like modeled it would have definitely been a cat 1 and could've went as far as a TS like you said. 

Breaking off sooner has obviously helped prevent further weakening as it's much more organized now.  Will be interesting to see how quick she builds back the intensity. 

Not sure why more don't take your input more serious as you have been as accurate as you can be for something so unpredictable. 

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Just updated the north side on Google earth and overall peak wind looks to be flat still most averaging Cat 1 type winds, wit ha few Cat 2 drops right in the eyewall.... pressure is dropping fast so lets see how the core handles it....crazy but we basically have a 933 mb minimal Cat 2 right now....will be interesting to see what she does next. 

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Snowgoose mentioned early about the wind field decreasing. Even though it's showing 100 mph winds on the recon flights. Its strengthening via satellite.  But at the same time the wind field is increasing again. Especially with the interaction with the front. By 11pm sure the winds will be higher. Not cat 5 though.

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5 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Snowgoose mentioned early about the wind field decreasing. Even though it's showing 100 mph winds on the recon flights. Its strengthening via satellite.  But at the same time the wind field is increasing again. Especially with the interaction with the front. By 11pm sure the winds will be higher. Not cat 5 though.

I think it tops out at 140.  We may see the pressure head fake us for awhile and even go mid 920s by 9-10pm but I think the winds will take forever to respond.  The danger now is if the SW shear doesn't weaken it (which it does not always do) it could be strengthening on approach to landfall and effectively be mixing winds down.

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1 minute ago, FLweather said:

Snowgoose mentioned early about the wind field decreasing. Even though it's showing 100 mph winds on the recon flights. Its strengthening via satellite.  But at the same time the wind field is increasing again. Especially with the interaction with the front. By 11pm sure the winds will be higher. Not cat 5 though.

Well sorta, the winds are actually lower than they were 3-4 hrs ago....they are not finding any surface winds over 100 mph, earlier they had some closer to 120 so its actually weakened a bit more overall. The storms and sat presentation are better and the pressure is dropping so she is better organized than earlier, but she gains nothing because half her core is over land....she is basically just maintaining her status quo or only slowly weakening....we will see if there is any wind increases in the next pass. 

Think of it like this if she was over open ocean and not losing anything to land friction then with the appearance she has there would be little doubt she is strengthening however since her core winds loses energy going over Cuba instead of strengthening she is just dumping the increase energy from the storms into maintaining what she has.....if she holds this flare up till she breaks free from Cuba she probably will ramp up how much though is tough to predict. 

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