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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

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23 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah I remembered that storm well. We had a ton of rainfall and the rivers flooded a lot. Currently it looks like our rainfall number have been going to a lot as the storm looks to move further west from us. 

90 mph gusts , as the Euro has been showing the last few runs, would be a disaster for ATL and NGa, IMO 

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

90 mph gusts , as the Euro has been showing the last few runs, would be a disaster for ATL and NGa, IMO 

Oh yeah no doubt it would be. Talking about here in the mountains currently the rainfall for us seems to be trending down according to the latest GFS run. The winds look pretty strong up here also. 50 to 60 MPH. Still this storm has a long way to go. We could have good trends and some bad trends. 

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2 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

She is going to go beast mode before land fall. 175 MPH per GFS.  

Oh no! That's catastrophic, if it were to be right! Especially with everyone saying its " only" going to be a cat 3 at landfall! And the stronger it gets before landfall, should translate to stronger winds for us down the line!?

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5 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

She is going to go beast mode before land fall. 175 MPH per GFS.  

Yeah it seems like according to the GFS rapid strengthening is going to take place. You can already see that as the center moves off the coast of Cuba. Also to note the Euro had Irma going further into Cuba but as we are seeing that is wrong. will be very interesting with the next euro update coming out.

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42 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Opal in 1995 was a disaster here in Atlanta.  The amount of property damage from the tress that fell was very costly.  Thousands of trees and power lines went down in the metro.  Schools were closed for a few days afterwards. It was bad bro. 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Opal

If Irma can recover and she can stay west of Florida and hit up north then you will have issues Opal was going 25 mph at landfall so she got up to ATL quick, wind gust in the ATL metro where low to mid 50's so it doesnt take much wind to drop a lot of trees. The high in the NE is a interesting factor and its hard to tell just how much it will pack the gradient. 

She looks to be going NNW at the moment and this is even sooner than the models predicted if this isnt a wobble then this will give her a chance at Cat 4 again...if she gets a more N than W component in her track now that might but S FL and Miami back in danger of getting east side of the eye. 

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Lets see if this is another bounce off the coast like she did last night and then wobbles back west or if this is her new heading, if its a actual direction change its probably worse case for Florida....this lets her get away from the coast and have the most time over water before the shear picks up....however this heading would put her more inline for a landfall farther east and put Islamorada and Key Largo in the east eyewall....heck she could even go more north and really screw Miami up like the models had a few days ago...but it would lessen the threat up the west coast of Florida a lot...its almost like she is a living thing fighting to stay off the coast and survive. 

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9 minutes ago, Buddy said:

Turning? Or a wobble? hifloat5_None_anim.gif

you watch this loop and see how her outflow flattens out on the NW side where the strong SW shear is and you got to wonder how the heck she is gonna make it much further west.....the interaction with Cuba may have weakened her enough to prevent her from being able to push her way as far west as models have her going...and we may see a bit sharper north turn...shear is close as is dry air her best bet is to run N/NE 

wg8shr.GIF.e8d75a5a27e19d521d2d1a4b1d85b56a.GIF

 

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12 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Lets see if this is another bounce off the coast like she did last night and then wobbles back west or if this is her new heading, if its a actual direction change its probably worse case for Florida....this lets her get away from the coast and have the most time over water before the shear picks up....however this heading would put her more inline for a landfall farther east and put Islamorada and Key Largo in the east eyewall....heck she could even go more north and really screw Miami up like the models had a few days ago...but it would lessen the threat up the west coast of Florida a lot...its almost like she is a living thing fighting to stay off the coast and survive. 

That's what Hurricane's do. 

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8 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

you watch this loop and see how her outflow flattens out on the NW side where the strong SW shear is and you got to wonder how the heck she is gonna make it much further west.....the interaction with Cuba may have weakened her enough to prevent her from being able to push her way as far west as models have her going...and we may see a bit sharper north turn...shear is close as is dry air her best bet is to run N/NE 

wg8shr.GIF.e8d75a5a27e19d521d2d1a4b1d85b56a.GIF

 

TBH watching the shear maps and wondering when the turn would start.  UKM/ECMWF have been forecasting a sharp knee for days now, and we're approaching the near window for that, no?  As the eye comes off the coast of Cuba it DOES appear to get a bit of intensification going for a couple frames but the next few frames will tell the tale.

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1 minute ago, Buddy said:

TBH watching the shear maps and wondering when the turn would start.  UKM/ECMWF have been forecasting a sharp knee for days now, and we're approaching the near window for that, no?  As the eye comes off the coast of Cuba it DOES appear to get a bit of intensification going for a couple frames but the next few frames will tell the tale.

She will never recover the entire circulation the damage is done, but she could reform as a small intense hurricane and even be Cat 4/5 but luckily she will probably have a much smaller wind field. what Florida needs is a ERC in 6-8 hrs that would probably save them from a Cat 4/5 hit, already looks like a west wobble again....

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3 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

She will never recover the entire circulation the damage is done, but she could reform as a small intense hurricane and even be Cat 4/5 but luckily she will probably have a much smaller wind field. what Florida needs is a ERC in 6-8 hrs that would probably save them from a Cat 4/5 hit, already looks like a west wobble again....

Back to 150kts? I think its probably unlikely given the sheer she's running into, but, CERTAINLY intensifying 
avn_lalo-animated.gif
Edit: odd, go direct to the image here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif

The post image is showing almost the exact inverse of what the direct link shows.  Maybe its a browser cache thing on my end or something, but shes past Lat80 and showing much more red in real time.

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

She will never recover the entire circulation the damage is done, but she could reform as a small intense hurricane and even be Cat 4/5 but luckily she will probably have a much smaller wind field. what Florida needs is a ERC in 6-8 hrs that would probably save them from a Cat 4/5 hit, already looks like a west wobble again....

Whuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut?

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

What confused you.....post like the above are pretty pointless if you want to discuss the storm and what it is may or may not be doing lets do it but come on next time you start to make a post like the one above......just stop. 

It confuses me because you flip flopped. 2 hours ago you said it would be a Cat 1 or TS when it hit Florida.

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4 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

She will never recover the entire circulation the damage is done, but she could reform as a small intense hurricane and even be Cat 4/5 but luckily she will probably have a much smaller wind field. what Florida needs is a ERC in 6-8 hrs that would probably save them from a Cat 4/5 hit, already looks like a west wobble again....

I think it can make 4 or 5 again but I tend to agree on the wind field.  I don't think this will be anywhere near as big as initially thought at least for hurricane force winds any longer.  I'm surprised though how much improved looking it is in the last 2 hours.  While I did anticipate it would weaken 25 mph or so over land I didn't think it would look that beat up as it was about to come off 

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